The Rational Reminder Podcast

Financial planning is built on assumptions — about markets, inflation, longevity, human behaviour, and even the questions clients bring into the room. In this episode, Ben and Braden welcome a diverse panel that originally came together at the FP Canada Conference to explore how those assumptions influence planning outcomes in practice. Joining them are Adam Chapman, a retirement-focused planner who helps clients turn their money into memories; Joe Nunes, an actuary with decades of pension and longevity experience; and Aaron Theilade, Director of Continuing Education at FP Canada. Together, the panel unpacks how to make assumptions credible, how to stress-test them, how to navigate client bias, and how planners can blend math with humanity to create better client outcomes. Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:04) Why this episode: recreating a conference panel on planning assumptions. (0:01:03) Braden on the panel's value for planners and DIY investors. (0:02:32) Meet the guests: Adam, Joe, Aaron, and Braden. (0:06:04) Assumptions matter: directional accuracy > prediction. (0:07:47) Actuarial view: start with inflation, bond yields, and risk capacity. (0:09:38) Engineering mindset: plan for expected and unexpected outcomes. (0:13:21) Client pushback: longevity surprises and hidden assumptions. (0:16:59) Asset allocation: strategic, goal-based, informed by behaviour. (0:20:57) Software limits: life is too variable for perfect modeling. (0:22:01) Behaviour gap: retirees spend less over time despite inflation. (0:25:18) Software guides; planners interpret and humanize outputs. (0:28:48) Use assumptions based on the specific question (e.g., withdrawals). (0:30:31) Always ask: "Why are we modeling this?" (0:34:15) Handling bias: reframe assumptions to reveal inconsistencies. (0:38:19) Assumptions evolve: returns, spending, and research all change. (0:42:38) Longevity beliefs: explore "why," not just the data. (0:50:38) Core truth: every plan is wrong — planning is iterative. (0:52:20) When to update: depends on age, goals, and material changes. (0:57:23) PWL approach: twice-yearly updates + adjustments during extremes. (1:00:03) Tips: focus on behaviour, communication, goals, and integration. (1:10:02) Success: relationships, impact, freedom, and sharing knowledge. Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Benjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com)

In this first episode of 2026, we sit down for a deep dive into one of the hottest concerns coming from clients and listeners lately: Is the U.S. stock market dangerously concentrated—and are we in an AI bubble? Ben, Dan, and Ben unpack the data, the history, and the psychology behind today's valuations, drawing lessons from past episodes of market euphoria such as Nortel in Canada, the dot-com boom, and Japan's 1989 peak. They explain why high market valuations—not concentration—pose the bigger challenge, how bubbles historically fuel real economic innovation while hurting investors, and why diversification continues to offer the only reliable protection against unknowable futures. Along the way, they revisit examples of how value stocks, small-cap value, and global diversification have fared across different market regimes.   Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:40) What RR is about: evidence-based insights, synthesis episodes, expert interviews, and long-form inquiry — not debates. (0:04:20) Why listeners value RR: transparency, friendly inquiry, returning to topics over time, and the hosts' dynamic. (0:09:25) Rising concern: clients asking whether U.S. market concentration and an AI bubble mean it's time to exit stocks. (0:11:10) Advisors echo similar worries: U.S. politics, all-time highs, and emotional decision-making. (0:14:20) Today's data point: Top seven U.S. stocks = 36% of S&P 500; 32% of the total U.S. market — highest on record. (0:16:10) Why people fear concentration: a decline in the Magnificent Seven could meaningfully drag down the index. (0:17:30) Canada's cautionary tale: Nortel once hit 36% of the TSX — collapsed to zero — but the market recovered by 2005. (0:21:20) Bubbles through history: canals, railways, fiber optics, dot-coms — innovation funded by speculation. (0:25:30) Dot-com parallels: huge ideas, low cost of capital, lots of failures — but lasting infrastructure remained. (0:28:40) AI dominance: Since ChatGPT, AI-linked companies drove 75% of S&P returns, 80% of earnings growth, 90% of capex. (0:31:15) Reminder: No bubble calls — just context. High prices don't equal an inevitable crash. (0:33:10) Concentration vs. valuation: concentration shows weak links to future returns; valuations matter far more. (0:35:05) Market timing trap: U.S. valuations were high in 2021 — selling then would have been disastrous. (0:36:40) The U.S. lost decade: 2000–2010 returns were flat; in CAD, recovery didn't happen until 2013. (0:38:55) Value stocks held up: U.S. value and small-cap value delivered positive returns while broad indexes stagnated. (0:41:00) Recency bias reminder: Canadians once avoided U.S. stocks entirely after a decade of underperformance. (0:44:05) Japan 1989: World's largest market crashes — still not recovered in real terms 36 years later. (0:47:10) Global diversification wins: A 40% Japan-weighted global portfolio still performed fine thanks to U.S. growth. (0:49:00) Cross-country data: Many markets are far more concentrated than the U.S. — still delivered solid returns. (0:52:30) Valuation evidence: Higher CAPE = lower future returns — economically strong pattern across countries. (0:55:40) Core lesson: Diversification + discipline. You will always hold winners and losers — that's the point. (0:57:55) Practical ways to lower concentration risk: global equity funds, small caps, and Canada's 10% cap rule. (1:00:30) Why active managers don't help: only ~30–47% outperform depending on concentration trend. (1:03:25) Final takeaway: high valuations may imply lower returns, but prediction is impossible — stay diversified. (1:05:15) After-show review: Addressing a one-star critique ("Fartcoin Designer") with humour and community context. Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Benjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com)

In this special year-end episode, Ben and Cameron turn the spotlight inward for a behind-the-scenes look at the Rational Reminder podcast. They're joined by the extended team that keeps the show running—from compliance to editing to marketing—to reflect on a landmark year in the podcast's evolution. We hear from Multimedia Specialist Matt Gambino, Compliance Reviewer Ross Brayton, long-time Marketing Lead Angelica Montagano, and others who share their roles, personal stories, and what the show means to them. Ben and Cameron also discuss the podcast's growth trajectory, the impact of joining OneDigital, standout market events from 2025, and what's ahead for 2026. It's a thoughtful, personal, and often funny conversation that celebrates community, nerdiness, and meaningful work.   Key Points From This Episode: (0:01:00) Behind the scenes: Why the entire Rational Reminder team joined the mic for this special episode. (0:01:40) Meet the production crew: From video editing to compliance and marketing. (0:02:54) From 767 to 334,000: How the podcast grew since August 2018. (0:04:40) YouTube's rising role: Now 33% of all podcast consumption. (0:07:24) AMA evolution: How listener Q&As became a regular series in 2025. (0:08:45) Bringing in PWL advisors: Sharing real-world financial planning experience on the pod. (0:10:05) 12,500 members: Rational Reminder Community continues to thrive. (0:11:30) OneDigital acquisition reflections—one year later, no pressure to cut costs or change values. (0:14:23) Compliance-free growth: Maintaining service levels while scaling the firm. (0:15:06) Market surprise of 2025: Canadian small caps up 35%+ year-to-date. (0:16:55) Real estate rewind: National average home prices down 20% since 2022 peak. (0:19:24) Rent declines too: Down 7% YoY in Toronto, 4.4% in Vancouver. (0:20:39) Looking back: A wild year of unexpected returns and market resilience. (0:21:00) A different kind of year-end episode: No highlight reel—just team storytelling. (0:23:53) [Matt Gambino] The editor speaks: Role evolution, creative direction, and 200+ episodes later. (0:28:42) YouTube growth: From 11,000 to 46,000 subs under Matt's watch. (0:32:55) Matt on money: What 4 years editing the pod taught him about finance and happiness. (0:36:54) Defining success: Matt's answer after years of listening to the show. (38:40) [Ross Brayton] Compliance from the inside: What Ross listens for, and why disclaimers got longer. (0:43:05) Ross on investing: From Warren Buffett books to podcast fact-checker. (0:46:11) Planning life after financial independence: Ross poses a thoughtful challenge. (0:47:41) [Angelica Montagano] The original marketer: How the podcast started in a hallway. (0:50:14) Early tech struggles: Mono recordings, brick recorders, and lots of duct tape. (0:51:53) COVID's silver lining: Why lockdowns accelerated the pod's evolution. (0:54:20) Launching the RR Community: From 100-member goal to 12,500+ and counting. (0:55:49) Podcast = Brand: How RR became central to PWL's identity and communication. (0:57:26) What's next: Angelica's dreams for live events and even a coffee table book. (0:59:10) Angelica on investing: From ex-banker cynicism to believer in behavior and psychology. (1:00:38) Favorite moment: Hearing real stories of how listeners' lives have been changed. (1:01:36) Defining success: Impact, confidence, and financial empowerment.   Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Benjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/   Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com).

In this special year-end AMA, the full PWL crew — Ben Felix, Cameron Passmore, Ben Wilson, and Dan Bortolotti — sit down together for the first time on the podcast to reflect on the roller-coaster that was 2025 and to tackle a wide range of thoughtful listener questions. The episode begins with reflections on a year that included wild market swings, an extraordinary rally few predicted, major changes within PWL, and personal milestones. From there, the team dives deep into the psychology of staying invested, the real risks of inexperienced investors going 100% equities, the complexity of asset location and pre-tax vs. after-tax allocation, and how to talk to family members who are paying too much in investment fees.   Key Points From This Episode: (0:04) Introduction — first-ever full-team recording and setup for the year-end AMA. (1:12) Why not all AMA questions could be answered — over 400 submissions and many not suited to the format. (1:48) 2024 market recap — from early-year panic to strong double-digit global equity returns. (3:59) The speed of recoveries — why missing a quick rebound can permanently derail returns. (5:34) Cameron's lessons from 2024 — unpredictability, growing adoption of evidence-based investing, joining a bigger organization, and driverless-car optimism. (7:41) Ben Wilson becomes a co-host — an unplanned evolution shaped by listener feedback. (9:51) Dan on humility in forecasting and reconnecting with theoretical research. (11:18) Ben's personal year — firm acquisition, equity value jump, and navigating his cancer diagnosis. (12:32) Talking to parents about high fees — emotional dynamics, non-confrontational questions, and the danger of implied judgment. (23:01) Should beginners hold 100% equities? Behavioral risk, volatility blindness, and why it shouldn't be the default allocation. (30:35) Pre-tax vs. after-tax asset allocation — why RRSP dollars aren't equal to TFSA dollars and how that changes true risk exposure. (36:09) Why PWL rarely optimizes asset location — complexity, low payoff, and behavioral clarity. (44:42) What PWL does (and doesn't) offer — discretionary management, integrated planning, outside specialists, and tax deductibility rules. (49:04) "I know I need index funds — but how do I actually buy them?" Robo-advisors vs. one-ticket ETFs and why placing a trade is the real barrier. (57:47) Ben's lessons as a new homeowner — maintenance costs far above expectations and the hidden burden of being your own contractor. (1:01:54) The strangest portfolios — single-stock windfalls, leverage without client awareness, bullion-only strategies, and the infamous "meatloaf portfolio." Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Benjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Ben Wilson on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/ben-wilson/   Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com)

In this episode, the team digs into the newly updated 2025 edition of The Wealthy Barber — Dave Chilton's iconic Canadian personal finance book that helped shape millions of financial journeys. Ben, Dan, and Ben walk through the biggest lessons Dave has reworked for a world of high housing costs, social-media-fueled spending pressure, new tax-sheltered accounts, and the ever-present noise of investing advice. This discussion explores why the book remains so effective: it blends timeless principles with approachable storytelling, humor, and deeply practical guidance. The conversation also highlights Dave's real-world insights from reviewing thousands of personal financial situations across Canada. You'll hear how the book explains foundational habits like paying yourself first, why simple investing beats stock picking, how renters can build wealth, and why understanding your own spending is the key to unlocking both financial progress and happiness. Whether you're brand new to money or a seasoned investor, the updated lessons hit harder in 2025 than ever before.   Key Points From This Episode: (0:04) Introduction — recording early and setting up a deep dive into the updated Wealthy Barber. (0:53) Why the new 2025 edition lands so well: humor, modern references, and timeless lessons. (1:30) Dave Chilton's real-world insight from reviewing thousands of Canadians' financial situations. (2:23) Why the storytelling works — characters, humor, and accessible teaching. (3:45) Inside the narrative: Roy the barber, Matt, Maddie, Jess, Kyle, and the barbershop regulars. (7:53) Lesson 1: "You can do this" — personal finance isn't about math, it's about simple principles. (12:08) Lesson 2: Save 10% and pay yourself first — habit beats theory, compounding does the rest. (14:29) Why saving is hard today: algorithms, FOMO, lifestyle creep, and rising costs. (16:57) The behavioral case for saving early, even if economists say otherwise. (18:52) Lesson 3: Be an owner, not a loaner — stocks vs. bonds and the engine of human ingenuity. (22:49) The investor's paradox — the less you think you know, the better you invest. (24:05) Why indexing wins: skewed stock returns and the impossibility of picking winners. (27:49) How investing has changed since 1989 — indexing is now widely accessible. (28:18) "The world feels scary today…" — the 1847 quote showing it always feels that way. (34:03) RRSP vs. TFSA — identical outcomes at equal tax rates, and why RRSPs shine when taxed lower later. (39:12) Debunking the RRSP "tax bomb" — why high earners still benefit most. (42:06) Lesson 4: Housing — the four levers to buy today (cheaper homes, (46:34) Why today's young buyers need new strategies, not 1980s nostalgia. (48:02) Longer amortizations: counterintuitive but often financially sound. (49:05) Leverage vs. psychology — why borrowing to invest feels scary even when the math matches. (52:36) Renting isn't throwing money away — disciplined renters can match homeowner wealth. (53:51) The hidden costs of owning — repairs, trees, chimneys, and constant surprises. (55:44) The Canadian stigma around renting — and why it's undeserved. (56:42) Lesson 5: Spending — "faulty brain wiring," social pressure, and unconscious habits. (1:00:46) The multi-month spending summary — tedious but life-changing for both finances and happiness. (1:02:43) Joy units per dollar — reallocating spending to maximize happiness. (1:03:47) Practical rules: delay big purchases, beware car costs, indulge selectively, and remember "$1 saved = $2 earned."   Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Benjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Ben Wilson on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/ben-wilson/ Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com)