MexMoves

Tourism Woes and AHMSA
Description
This week on MexMoves, we speak with David Razú, CEO of Afore XXI Banorte, one of Mexico’s two largest pension managers, with roughly US$100bn in assets under management. Mexico’s Afore system now manages close to US$500bn, and it is getting much bigger: mandatory pension contributions are rising from 6.5% of wages toward 15% by 2030, creating tens of billions of dollars in additional annual inflows to invest.
We ask Razú whether workers are earning good returns, how regulation has changed Afore investment, whether Mexico’s capital markets are deep enough to absorb this growing pool of savings, and how much more should be allowed into foreign assets, infrastructure, private equity and private credit. We also discuss informality, whether higher payroll pension costs could push more workers outside the formal system, consolidation among Afores, and the tension between financing Mexico’s development priorities and maximizing risk-adjusted returns for workers.
Before the interview:
- Energy Investment and Natural Gas Security: Mexico’s dependence on US natural gas comes back into focus after a temporary reduction in cross-border supplies. Mexico imports roughly 75–80% of the gas it consumes and has only a very small storage buffer. At the same time, the government is pushing around US$57bn of electricity investment and almost US$8bn in gas pipelines through 2030, alongside new generation, transmission and renewables.
- Tourism: airport and hotel data are flashing warning signs in some of Mexico’s biggest beach markets. September passenger traffic was down roughly 9% in Cancún, 10% in Puerto Vallarta and 8% in Los Cabos, while parts of Tulum and the Riviera Maya are seeing weak occupancy and reduced airline capacity. Mexico is still attracting plenty of visitors, but some major resort destinations are having a difficult year.
- AHMSA: the extraordinary bankruptcy saga enters another critical phase, expertly documented in our sister podcast Whitepaper 10. CIESA has submitted a US$1.4bn bid for AHMSA and Minera del Norte, but still needs to prove the money is there. If it fails, creditors including Cargill and Afirme could emerge as an alternative rescue. We look at decades of failed buyers, restructurings and Alonso Ancira’s control of the steelmaker, and why restarting the Monclova complex matters for the regional economy.

We interview Avelino Rodríguez, CEO of The Lift, to talk about the business of creativity in Mexico. Twenty years after founding The Lift, Avelino explains how he built a world-class audiovisual production-services company, and what Mexico needs to become a genuine global creative hub comparable to Korea. We also discuss Productistas, his and Ilana Sod's new podcast focused on Mexico’s creative industries.
Then we turn to the week’s business news:
Consorcio ARA: its proposed tender offer, and what it says about the continuing shrinkage of Mexico’s listed mid-cap market.
Advent / CONTPAQi: why a large investment in traditional business software is especially interesting as AI is putting pressure on some software valuations.
Nu México: another CEO change, a new CFO, and the execution challenge of scaling rapidly across multiple markets.
The peso: from market darling to laggard in a month as the carry trade unwinds.
Exports: Mexico’s extraordinary AI-driven export boom.
Diesel: the government’s increasingly expensive effort to subsidize prices while tightening traceability and enforcement around fuel sales.

This week we talk to two key people promoting US-Mexico ties and investment in Mexico. Enrique Perret runs the US-Mexico Foundation, which is hosting this week's North Capital Forum in Mexico City. He talks about North American convergence and why booming exports to the US and continued growth in nearshoring alone are not enough to solve Mexico's economic challenges. Véronique Billia runs AMEXCAP, the Mexican private capital association, and helped organize Mexico Investment Week in New York earlier this month. She was encouraged by the interest in Mexico and the new faces who turned up, but is candid in acknowledging what needs to be done to get more private capital flowing into Mexico.

Also this week:

Demographic shock: INEGI shows fertility has fallen to 1.2 children per woman, below the United States. In Mexico City it's 0.8, not far above South Korea. The median age rose three years in just five. We ask what this means for growth, pensions and the workforce.
JD Sports/Axo bet: the British sneaker and sports chain is entering Mexico through a franchise with Grupo Axo, turning more than 140 existing stores into JD shops from 2027. With running shoes taking over from retro basketball styles, and Nike and Adidas under pressure, can JD crack the Mexican market?
Korea in Mexico: Lee Jae-myung makes the first state visit by a South Korean president in 16 years, with the heads of SK, LG and LS in tow. Korea sells Mexico chips and machinery, buys its metals, and has built a large trade surplus. A Korea-Mexico free trade deal makes sense, but first Mexico needs to get the USMCA over the line.
The Trump diesel threat: Washington floats a ban on US diesel exports as prices soar ahead of the midterms. Mexico still imports a big share of its diesel from the US, and Hacienda is spending billions of pesos a week to hold pump prices down. Was AMLO right to build Dos Bocas after all?  (Spoiler alert -No).

This week on MexMoves, we interview Alejandro Preinfalk, President and CEO of Siemens Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean.
Siemens has been in Mexico for 130 years, but recently business has been booming globally as electrification, automation, industrial AI and data centers reshape global manufacturing, driving its market value to a all-time high of $240bn. We ask how big Siemens is in Mexico today, where it is investing, whether nearshoring is still delivering, how quickly Mexican companies are adopting AI and robotics, and whether the country has enough electricity, infrastructure and talent for the next industrial wave.
We also discuss whether automation weakens Mexico’s traditional labor-cost advantage, how Mexico fits into Siemens’ global manufacturing and technology strategy, and what changes to USMCA and tighter restrictions on Chinese technology could mean for the country.
Before the interview, Eduardo and Damian break down the week’s biggest Mexico business stories:
* Flex spins off its fast-growing AI infrastructure business as Axiom Solutions International, with Mexico already accounting for roughly 35% of quarterly sales and 58% of productive assets.
* Traxión Founder, Chairman and CEO Aby Lijtszain launches a MX$13.18-per-share offer to buy up to 100% of the company, highlighting the striking disconnect its depressed valuation on the BMV.
* Liverpool brings Primark to Mexico, raising the question: can one of the world’s most successful store-first fashion retailers help Liverpool defend itself against Shein, Temu and the broader e-commerce shift?
* Grupo México closes the deal to combine its power assets with Saavi Energía to create a 4.5 GW electricity platform, as opportunities in electricity require scale, capital and it would seem local muscle

We interview Oscar del Cueto, Head of CPKC Mexico and President of AmCham Mexico, for a conversation about railways and the future of North American trade.
Oscar discusses how nearshoring is showing up in freight volumes, why Mexico still moves so much cargo by truck, the US$100 million expansion at Nuevo Laredo, border bureaucracy, security, tariffs and whether passenger rail can coexist with a growing freight network. We also ask what U.S. companies are telling AmCham ahead of the USMCA review.
First Eduardo and Damian we break down the week’s biggest Mexico business stories:
* Mexico’s 2027 budget: slower and arguably more realistic fiscal consolidation, but debt continues climbing toward 55% of GDP and potentially higher. Can Mexico protect investment grade while funding pensions, Pemex and infrastructure?
* The digital-payments surprise:  new powers for authorities could accelerate digital payments, free QR payments, and digital account opening, potentially reshaping Mexico’s payments industry and (optimists hope) moving the economy away from cash and informality
* Kapital raises US$125 million: unlike other fintechs, the neo Mexican bank has acquired legacy businesses, applied technology to improve efficiency and sustain high levels of profitability. 
* Televisa and the end of an era: after roughly 30 years, Televisa is set to leave Mexico’s flagship IPC index. We look at how one of Mexico’s most powerful companies went from dominant and hugely cash generating Mexico media gatekeeper to a smaller and less profitable Mexico telecom-focused group plus 45% effective controlling ownership of the TelevisaUnivision, still relevant but now highly leveraged US-Mexico Hispanic media group.
* Mexico Investment Week in New York: investors still like Mexico, but the constraint is turning energy, infrastructure, water, logistics and nearshoring opportunities into actual bankable projects.