MexMoves

Rodrigo Velasco, Head of BBVA Spark Mexico & LatAm, discusses how BBVA’s division for fast-growing, tech-oriented companies and funds works in practice, and what he looks for when taking on a new client, extending credit or investing in a VC fund.

First, Eduardo and Damian dissect the news of the week:

* S&P moves Mexico’s outlook to negative while keeping the rating at BBB.
* Ebrard prepares markets for a USMCA review without a clean endpoint.
* Alejandro Werner warns on Mexico’s low-growth model.
* SICC’s US$2bn Hidalgo pharma MOU — and why investors may be skeptical.
* GAP shifts from airport operator to broader infrastructure platform.
* Tourism weakness hits hotels
* Braskem Idesa faces an operational and financial crisis.
* Bunq applies for a Mexican banking license.

Eduardo García interviews Nico Girard, CEO and Founder of telco upstart OXIO, on its bold move to buy Telefónica’s Movistar Mexico business, the future of telecom competition, MVNOs, AI-driven telecom platforms, and what success could look like in one of Latin America’s toughest mobile markets.

Before that, Damian joins Eduardo to dissect Mexico’s latest business news:

* Plan México’s new deregulation push and the government’s “zero excuses” message to investors
* Cox Energy’s US$2bn bond to refinance its audacious US$4bn Iberdrola México acquisition
* Why pawn shops are booming across Mexico
* World Cup hype versus economic reality
* Tiendas 3B crushing traditional retail
* Banamex returning to international debt markets

We interview Emilio Cadena, CEO of Prodensa and President of the US-Mexico Foundation, on the continued nearshoring opportunity for Mexico; what’s working, what isn’t, and why a roll-up of some of Mexico’s SME export industrial plays makes sense.
Before that, Eduardo and Damian discuss the big business news of the week. 
Grupo México takes control of Saavi Energía, partially cashing out BlackRock/GIP, a clear example of global capital rotating out while rich local players step up.
Mexico’s GDP contracted 0.8% in 1Q, its weakest start since 2020, while the U.S. grew around 2%. The divergence is striking: the U.S. is being supported by AI capex, while Mexico is held back by weak domestic consumption, investment, and autos.
Yet Mexico’s non-auto exports are quietly booming. Growth is coming from electronics, electrical equipment, and industrial inputs tied directly to the AI buildout. This is nearshoring  in action, though it is not yet translating into GDP growth perhaps given the large import component in electronics.
And in our quick takes, we look at Televisa preparing for Telco M&A, positive 1Q26 reports from FEMSA, Televisa, mixed results from BBVA Mexico, BanBajío, Walmex and others, plus Banorte’s bet on baseball.

Andrés Martínez, Co-Director of the Great Game Lab at Arizona State University, joins us to discuss the business significance of the first North American World Cup. Pedro Casas, CEO of AmCham Mexico, gives us the latest on USMCA talks following the USTR’s visit to Mexico. Before the interviews, Eduardo and Damian assess the state of Mexico’s economy and Q1 earnings so far, ballooning contraband around the World Cup, Fibra battles getting personal, Banamex’s new CEO, Flex’s AI infrastructure investment bet, and Atlas football club set to change hands.

We interview Adriana Rangel, Head of LatAm distribution at Vanguard, on one of Mexico’s biggest long-term weaknesses: why retirement savings remain so low despite gains in financial inclusion and average incomes. The answers include still low incomes relative to living costs, low female labor participation, high informality, poor financial education, and complexity and high cost of many existing financial products.

Eduardo and Damian first turn to the week’s key stories:
• Tomato prices surge: up as much as 100% YoY, pushing inflation higher, while tortilla prices also look set to rise.
• Fracking reconsidered: Sheinbaum shifts policy, but cheap US gas remains hard to compete with.
• Plata at a $5bn valuation: a major fintech milestone and a sign of renewed capital flows.
• GS Motos hits 10 million motorcycle units sold: a major success story now facing stronger Indian competition.
• Herdez’s ice cream JV with Froneri marks another step toward its leaner operating model.