Driving with Dunne

China's automotive manufacturing machine is extraordinary, featuring a concentration of scale and firepower never before seen in the past century. Consider these numbers: China manufactures more cars than the next five countries combined. The PRC is on track to export 12 million vehicles this year. That's up from just one million in 2020.  That number, 12 million, is causing tremors across the world, from Europe to SE Asia to South America. Overall global demand for cars in is not growing. So every export from China means one less car built somewhere else. Now, Western automakers are feeling real pain. VW is talking about laying off up to 100,000 workers by 2030. Honda just announced its first annual loss since 1955.  What is triggering China's export juggernaut? And why now? For answers, we turn to my good friend Jorge Guajardo, former ambassador for Mexico to China and a man with a deep understanding of how China works. In today's conversation, I ask Jorge the following: What is driving car exports from China? And what can Western countries do to respond and compete with the industrial colossus?

What do we really know about Xi Jinping, China's most powerful leader since Chairman Mao? Answer: Incredibly little.  Xi is the embodiment of inscrutability, the ultimate poker face.  And second, the Party he has led since 2012 is notoriously secretive and opaque. But, wait, there is a fresh glimmer of light. His name is Joseph Torigian, a highly respected scholar who has written an incredibly powerful book about Xi Jinping's father, Xi Zhongxun. Through it, we learn a lot about Xi Jinping himself, his unbelievably harsh formative years living in a cave in dirt poor rural China, his quiet rise to power and the principles that guide his extraordinary reign as the No. 1 in China. What does Xi Jinping want for China ? What does it mean for Americans, Europeans and the rest of the world? Joseph Torigian, author, The Party's Interests Come First, has answers, here on the Driving With Dunne podcast

Our guest today, Lizzi Lee, is smart, daring and unconventional. After earning a PhD in economics from MIT, Lizzi Lee took a bold right turn and dove into research and writing. A few weeks ago, Lizzi wrote a very compelling piece in Foreign Affairs about the risks facing Chinese companies - price wars and vanishing margins at home. The stubborn underlying problem is that China cannot shake itself free from chronic overcapacity. Well, why not, we might wonder. Just shout down the extra plants and get supply in line with demand. It's more complicated than that, of course, especially in China where jobs and stability are number one. Too much capacity, too little profits making everyone a little bit tired, a phenomenon the Chinese call involution or neijuan in Chinese to roll up or coil up.  Born in China, formative years in Hong Kong and Singapore, and now in America, Lizzi gives us an insider's view of the realities oin the ground in the PRC as we get ready to head in to 2026.

Earlier this year, I enjoyed a delicious lunch in Mexico City with Luis Lozano,  the former CEO of Toyota de Mexico. Luis immediately impressed me with his knowledge of the Mexican car market, the shock of hundreds of thousands of Chinese imports since 2020 and the possibilities that Chinese automakers will try to make Mexico a production base for exports to the United States. One of his goals, Luis told me, was to open American eyes to the current realities of Chinese cars. They are good value for money, they are coming our way. And they are not turning back. So, which companies are ones to watch? Are they going to build plants in Mexico as they have done in Brazil, Spain and Thailand? How soon? In today's conversation we get answers to those questions here on the Driving With Dunne podcast.

President Trump and President Xi,  the two most powerful men in the world, met last week in Korea to try to, basically, calm things down.  China had just flexed its muscles, threatening to limit the export of key inputs like rare earth magnets and other critical minerals without which auto assembly plants in America could, within weeks, come to a standstill. America could inflict its own damage, by widening the net of sanctions on Chinese companies and individuals. Looking at the images on the TV screen, I began to wonder: In what areas are America and China still in agreement? Taiwan? No. South China Sea? No. Russia? No. Chips? No. Trade. A big no. That got me thinking about what lies ahead. To bring clarity and wisdom, I welcome Jorge Guajardo, former ambassador of Mexico to China to the show to ask him some fundamental questions: Since the US and China seem to have different values, different priorities and different regulations, can they ever see eye to eye? Who is decoupling more quickly, the United States or China. And how will Mexico play its cards as it finds itself squeezed between China and the United States with the car industry, investments and jobs looming large.