
[State of Post-Training] From GPT-4.1 to 5.1: RLVR, Agent & Token Efficiency — Josh McGrath, OpenAI
31/12/2025
From pre-training data curation to shipping GPT-4o, o1, o3, and now GPT-5 thinking and the shopping model, Josh McGrath has lived through the full arc of OpenAI's post-training evolution—from the PPO vs DPO debates of 2023 to today's RLVR era, where the real innovation isn't optimization methods but data quality, signal trust, and token efficiency. We sat down with Josh at NeurIPS 2025 to dig into the state of post-training heading into 2026: why RLHF and RLVR are both just policy gradient methods (the difference is the input data, not the math), how GRPO from DeepSeek Math was underappreciated as a shift toward more trustworthy reward signals (math answers you can verify vs. human preference you can't), why token efficiency matters more than wall-clock time (GPT-5 to 5.1 bumped evals and slashed tokens), how Codex has changed his workflow so much he feels "trapped" by 40-minute design sessions followed by 15-minute agent sprints, the infrastructure chaos of scaling RL ("way more moving parts than pre-training"), why long context will keep climbing but agents + graph walks might matter more than 10M-token windows, the shopping model as a test bed for interruptability and chain-of-thought transparency, why personality toggles (Anton vs Clippy) are a real differentiator users care about, and his thesis that the education system isn't producing enough people who can do both distributed systems and ML research—the exact skill set required to push the frontier when the bottleneck moves every few weeks. We discuss: Josh's path: pre-training data curation → post-training researcher at OpenAI, shipping GPT-4o, o1, o3, GPT-5 thinking, and the shopping model Why he switched from pre-training to post-training: "Do I want to make 3% compute efficiency wins, or change behavior by 40%?" The RL infrastructure challenge: way more moving parts than pre-training (tasks, grading setups, external partners), and why babysitting runs at 12:30am means jumping into unfamiliar code constantly How Codex has changed his workflow: 40-minute design sessions compressed into 15-minute agent sprints, and the strange "trapped" feeling of waiting for the agent to finish The RLHF vs RLVR debate: both are policy gradient methods, the real difference is data quality and signal trust (human preference vs. verifiable correctness) Why GRPO (from DeepSeek Math) was underappreciated: not just an optimization trick, but a shift toward reward signals you can actually trust (math answers over human vibes) The token efficiency revolution: GPT-5 to 5.1 bumped evals and slashed tokens, and why thinking in tokens (not wall-clock time) unlocks better tool-calling and agent workflows Personality toggles: Anton (tool, no warmth) vs Clippy (friendly, helpful), and why Josh uses custom instructions to make his model "just a tool" The router problem: having a router at the top (GPT-5 thinking vs non-thinking) and an implicit router (thinking effort slider) creates weird bumps, and why the abstractions will eventually merge Long context: climbing Graph Blocks evals, the dream of 10M+ token windows, and why agents + graph walks might matter more than raw context length Why the education system isn't producing enough people who can do both distributed systems and ML research, and why that's the bottleneck for frontier labs The 2026 vision: neither pre-training nor post-training is dead, we're in the fog of war, and the bottleneck will keep moving (so emotional stability helps) — Josh McGrath OpenAI: https://openai.com https://x.com/j_mcgraph Chapters 00:00:00 Introduction: Josh McGrath on Post-Training at OpenAI 00:04:37 The Shopping Model: Black Friday Launch and Interruptability 00:07:11 Model Personality and the Anton vs Clippy Divide 00:08:26 Beyond PPO vs DPO: The Data Quality Spectrum in RL 00:01:40 Infrastructure Challenges: Why Post-Training RL is Harder Than Pre-Training 00:13:12 Token Efficiency: The 2D Plot That Matters Most 00:03:45 Codex Max and the Flow Problem: 40 Minutes of Planning, 15 Minutes of Waiting 00:17:29 Long Context and Graph Blocks: Climbing Toward Perfect Context 00:21:23 The ML-Systems Hybrid: What's Hard to Hire For 00:24:50 Pre-Training Isn't Dead: Living Through Technological Revolution

[State of RL/Reasoning] IMO/IOI Gold, OpenAI o3/GPT-5, and Cursor Composer — Ashvin Nair, Cursor
30/12/2025
From Berkeley robotics and OpenAI's 2017 Dota-era internship to shipping RL breakthroughs on GPT-4o, o1, and o3, and now leading model development at Cursor, Ashvin Nair has done it all. We caught up with Ashvin at NeurIPS 2025 to dig into the inside story of OpenAI's reasoning team (spoiler: it went from a dozen people to 300+), why IOI Gold felt reachable in 2022 but somehow didn't change the world when o1 actually achieved it, how RL doesn't generalize beyond the training distribution (and why that means you need to bring economically useful tasks into distribution by co-designing products and models), the deeper lessons from the RL research era (2017–2022) and why most of it didn't pan out because the community overfitted to benchmarks, how Cursor is uniquely positioned to do continual learning at scale with policy updates every two hours and product-model co-design that keeps engineers in the loop instead of context-switching into ADHD hell, and his bet that the next paradigm shift is continual learning with infinite memory—where models experience something once (a bug, a mistake, a user pattern) and never forget it, storing millions of deployment tokens in weights without overloading capacity. We discuss: Ashvin's path: Berkeley robotics PhD → OpenAI 2017 intern (Dota era) → o1/o3 reasoning team → Cursor ML lead in three months Why robotics people are the most grounded at NeurIPS (they work with the real world) and simulation people are the most unhinged (Lex Fridman's take) The IOI Gold paradox: "If you told me we'd achieve IOI Gold in 2022, I'd assume we could all go on vacation—AI solved, no point working anymore. But life is still the same." The RL research era (2017–2022) and why most of it didn't pan out: overfitting to benchmarks, too many implicit knobs to tune, and the community rewarding complex ideas over simple ones that generalize Inside the o1 origin story: a dozen people, conviction from Ilya and Jakob Pachocki that RL would work, small-scale prototypes producing "surprisingly accurate reasoning traces" on math, and first-principles belief that scaled The reasoning team grew from ~12 to 300+ people as o1 became a product and safety, tooling, and deployment scaled up Why Cursor is uniquely positioned for continual learning: policy updates every two hours (online RL on tab), product and ML sitting next to each other, and the entire software engineering workflow (code, logs, debugging, DataDog) living in the product Composer as the start of product-model co-design: smart enough to use, fast enough to stay in the loop, and built by a 20–25 person ML team with high-taste co-founders who code daily The next paradigm shift: continual learning with infinite memory—models that experience something once (a bug, a user mistake) and store it in weights forever, learning from millions of deployment tokens without overloading capacity (trillions of pretraining tokens = plenty of room) Why off-policy RL is unstable (Ashvin's favorite interview question) and why Cursor does two-day work trials instead of whiteboard interviews The vision: automate software engineering as a process (not just answering prompts), co-design products so the entire workflow (write code, check logs, debug, iterate) is in-distribution for RL, and make models that never make the same mistake twice — Ashvin Nair Cursor: https://cursor.com X: https://x.com/ashvinnair_ Chapters 00:00:00 Introduction: From Robotics to Cursor via OpenAI 00:01:58 The Robotics to LLM Agent Transition: Why Code Won 00:09:11 RL Research Winter and Academic Overfitting 00:11:45 The Scaling Era and Moving Goalposts: IOI Gold Doesn't Mean AGI 00:21:30 OpenAI's Reasoning Journey: From Codex to O1 00:20:03 The Blip: Thanksgiving 2023 and OpenAI Governance 00:22:39 RL for Reasoning: The O-Series Conviction and Scaling 00:25:47 O1 to O3: Smooth Internal Progress vs External Hype Cycles 00:33:07 Why Cursor: Co-Designing Products and Models for Real Work 00:34:14 Composer and the Future: Online Learning Every Two Hours 00:35:15 Continual Learning: The Missing Paradigm Shift 00:44:00 Hiring at Cursor and Why Off-Policy RL is Unstable

[State of AI Startups] Memory/Learning, RL Envs & DBT-Fivetran — Sarah Catanzaro, Amplify
30/12/2025
From investing through the modern data stack era (DBT, Fivetran, and the analytics explosion) to now investing at the frontier of AI infrastructure and applications at Amplify Partners, Sarah Catanzaro has spent years at the intersection of data, compute, and intelligence—watching categories emerge, merge, and occasionally disappoint. We caught up with Sarah live at NeurIPS 2025 to dig into the state of AI startups heading into 2026: why $100M+ seed rounds with no near-term roadmap are now the norm (and why that terrifies her), what the DBT-Fivetran merger really signals about the modern data stack (spoiler: it's not dead, just ready for IPO), how frontier labs are using DBT and Fivetran to manage training data and agent analytics at scale, why data catalogs failed as standalone products but might succeed as metadata services for agents, the consumerization of AI and why personalization (memory, continual learning, K-factor) is the 2026 unlock for retention and growth, why she thinks RL environments are a fad and real-world logs beat synthetic clones every time, and her thesis for the most exciting AI startups: companies that marry hard research problems (RAG, rule-following, continual learning) with killer applications that were simply impossible before. We discuss: The DBT-Fivetran merger: not the death of the modern data stack, but a path to IPO scale (targeting $600M+ combined revenue) and a signal that both companies were already winning their categories How frontier labs use data infrastructure: DBT and Fivetran for training data curation, agent analytics, and managing increasingly complex interactions—plus the rise of transactional databases (RocksDB) and efficient data loading (Vortex) for GPU-bound workloads Why data catalogs failed: built for humans when they should have been built for machines, focused on discoverability when the real opportunity was governance, and ultimately subsumed as features inside Snowflake, DBT, and Fivetran The $100M+ seed phenomenon: raising massive rounds at billion-dollar valuations with no 6-month roadmap, seven-day decision windows, and founders optimizing for signal ("we're a unicorn") over partnership or dilution discipline Why world models are overhyped but underspecified: three competing definitions, unclear generalization across use cases (video games ≠ robotics ≠ autonomous driving), and a research problem masquerading as a product category The 2026 theme: consumerization of AI via personalization—memory management, continual learning, and solving retention/churn by making products learn skills, preferences, and adapt as the world changes (not just storing facts in cursor rules) Why RL environments are a fad: labs are paying 7–8 figures for synthetic clones when real-world logs, traces, and user activity (à la Cursor) are richer, cheaper, and more generalizable Sarah's investment thesis: research-driven applications that solve hard technical problems (RAG for Harvey, rule-following for Sierra, continual learning for the next killer app) and unlock experiences that were impossible before Infrastructure bets: memory, continual learning, stateful inference, and the systems challenges of loading/unloading personalized weights at scale Why K-factor and growth fundamentals matter again: AI felt magical in 2023–2024, but as the magic fades, retention and virality are back—and most AI founders have never heard of K-factor — Sarah Catanzaro X: https://x.com/sarahcat21 Amplify Partners: https://amplifypartners.com/ Where to find Latent Space X: https://x.com/latentspacepod Substack: https://www.latent.space/ Chapters 00:00:00 Introduction: Sarah Catanzaro's Journey from Data to AI 00:01:02 The DBT-Fivetran Merger: Not the End of the Modern Data Stack 00:05:26 Data Catalogs and What Went Wrong 00:08:16 Data Infrastructure at AI Labs: Surprising Insights 00:10:13 The Crazy Funding Environment of 2024-2025 00:17:18 World Models: Hype, Confusion, and Market Potential 00:18:59 Memory Management and Continual Learning: The Next Frontier 00:23:27 Agent Environments: Just a Fad? 00:25:48 The Perfect AI Startup: Research Meets Application 00:28:02 Closing Thoughts and Where to Find Sarah

One Year of MCP — with David Soria Parra and AAIF leads from OpenAI, Goose, Linux Foundation
27/12/2025
One year ago, Anthropic launched the Model Context Protocol (MCP)—a simple, open standard to connect AI applications to the data and tools they need. Today, MCP has exploded from a local-only experiment into the de facto protocol for agentic systems, adopted by OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, Block, and hundreds of enterprises building internal agents at scale. And now, MCP is joining the newly formed Agentic AI Foundation (AAIF) under the Linux Foundation, alongside Block's Goose coding agent, with founding members spanning the biggest names in AI and cloud infrastructure. We sat down with David Soria Parra (MCP lead, Anthropic), Nick Cooper (OpenAI), Brad Howes (Block / Goose), and Jim Zemlin (Linux Foundation CEO) to dig into the one-year journey of MCP—from Thanksgiving hacking sessions and the first remote authentication spec to long-running tasks, MCP Apps, and the rise of agent-to-agent communication—and the behind-the-scenes story of how three competitive AI labs came together to donate their protocols and agents to a neutral foundation, why enterprises are deploying MCP servers faster than anyone expected (most of it invisible, internal, and at massive scale), what it takes to design a protocol that works for both simple tool calls and complex multi-agent orchestration, how the foundation will balance taste-making (curating meaningful projects) with openness (avoiding vendor lock-in), and the 2025 vision: MCP as the communication layer for asynchronous, long-running agents that work while you sleep, discover and install their own tools, and unlock the next order of magnitude in AI productivity. We discuss: The one-year MCP journey: from local stdio servers to remote HTTP streaming, OAuth 2.1 authentication (and the enterprise lessons learned), long-running tasks, and MCP Apps (iframes for richer UI) Why MCP adoption is exploding internally at enterprises: invisible, internal servers connecting agents to Slack, Linear, proprietary data, and compliance-heavy workflows (financial services, healthcare) The authentication evolution: separating resource servers from identity providers, dynamic client registration, and why the March spec wasn't enterprise-ready (and how June fixed it) How Anthropic dogfoods MCP: internal gateway, custom servers for Slack summaries and employee surveys, and why MCP was born from "how do I scale dev tooling faster than the company grows?" Tasks: the new primitive for long-running, asynchronous agent operations—why tools aren't enough, how tasks enable deep research and agent-to-agent handoffs, and the design choice to make tasks a "container" (not just async tools) MCP Apps: why iframes, how to handle styles and branding, seat selection and shopping UIs as the killer use case, and the collaboration with OpenAI to build a common standard The registry problem: official registry vs. curated sub-registries (Smithery, GitHub), trust levels, model-driven discovery, and why MCP needs "npm for agents" (but with signatures and HIPAA/financial compliance) The founding story of AAIF: how Anthropic, OpenAI, and Block came together (spoiler: they didn't know each other were talking to Linux Foundation), why neutrality matters, and how Jim Zemlin has never seen this much day-one inbound interest in 22 years — David Soria Parra (Anthropic / MCP) MCP: https://modelcontextprotocol.io https://uk.linkedin.com/in/david-soria-parra-4a78b3a https://x.com/dsp_ Nick Cooper (OpenAI) X: https://x.com/nicoaicopr Brad Howes (Block / Goose) Goose: https://github.com/block/goose Jim Zemlin (Linux Foundation) LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/zemlin/ Agentic AI Foundation https://agenticai.foundation Chapters 00:00:00 Introduction: MCP's First Year and Foundation Launch 00:01:17 MCP's Journey: From Launch to Industry Standard 00:02:06 Protocol Evolution: Remote Servers and Authentication 00:08:52 Enterprise Authentication and Financial Services 00:11:42 Transport Layer Challenges: HTTP Streaming and Scalability 00:15:37 Standards Development: Collaboration with Tech Giants 00:34:27 Long-Running Tasks: The Future of Async Agents 00:30:41 Discovery and Registries: Building the MCP Ecosystem 00:30:54 MCP Apps and UI: Beyond Text Interfaces 00:26:55 Internal Adoption: How Anthropic Uses MCP 00:23:15 Skills vs MCP: Complementary Not Competing 00:36:16 Community Events and Enterprise Learnings 01:03:31 Foundation Formation: Why Now and Why Together 01:07:38 Linux Foundation Partnership: Structure and Governance 01:11:13 Goose as Reference Implementation 01:17:28 Principles Over Roadmaps: Composability and Quality 01:21:02 Foundation Value Proposition: Why Contribute 01:27:49 Practical Investments: Events, Tools, and Community 01:34:58 Looking Ahead: Async Agents and Real Impact

Steve Yegge's Vibe Coding Manifesto: Why Claude Code Isn't It & What Comes After the IDE
26/12/2025
Note: Steve and Gene’s talk on Vibe Coding and the post IDE world was one of the top talks of AIE CODE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Dtu2bilcFs&t=1019s&pp=0gcJCU0KAYcqIYzv From building legendary platforms at Google and Amazon to authoring one of the most influential essays on AI-powered development (Revenge of the Junior Developer, quoted by Dario Amodei himself), Steve Yegge has spent decades at the frontier of software engineering—and now he's leading the charge into what he calls the "factory farming" era of code. After stints at SourceGraph and building Beads (a purely vibe-coded issue tracker with tens of thousands of users), Steve co-authored The Vibe Coding Book and is now building VC (VibeCoder), an agent orchestration dashboard designed to move developers from writing code to managing fleets of AI agents that coordinate, parallelize, and ship features while you sleep. We sat down with Steve at AI Engineer Summit to dig into why Claude Code, Cursor, and the entire 2024 stack are already obsolete, what it actually takes to trust an agent after 2,000 hours of practice (hint: they will delete your production database if you anthropomorphize them), why the real skill is no longer writing code but orchestrating agents like a NASCAR pit crew, how merging has become the new wall that every 10x-productive team is hitting (and why one company's solution is literally "one engineer per repo"), the rise of multi-agent workflows where agents reserve files, message each other via MCP, and coordinate like a little village, why Steve believes if you're still using an IDE to write code by January 1st, you're a bad engineer, how the 12–15 year experience bracket is the most resistant demographic (and why their identity is tied to obsolete workflows), the hidden chaos inside OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google as they scale at breakneck speed, why rewriting from scratch is now faster than refactoring for a growing class of codebases, and his 2025 prediction: we're moving from subsistence agriculture to John Deere-scale factory farming of code, and the Luddite backlash is only just beginning. We discuss: Why Claude Code, Cursor, and agentic coding tools are already last year's tech—and what comes next: agent orchestration dashboards where you manage fleets, not write lines The 2,000-hour rule: why it takes a full year of daily use before you can predict what an LLM will do, and why trust = predictability, not capability Steve's hot take: if you're still using an IDE to develop code by January 1st, 2025, you're a bad engineer—because the abstraction layer has moved from models to full-stack agents The demographic most resistant to vibe coding: 12–15 years of experience, senior engineers whose identity is tied to the way they work today, and why they're about to become the interns Why anthropomorphizing LLMs is the biggest mistake: the "hot hand" fallacy, agent amnesia, and how Steve's agent once locked him out of prod by changing his password to "fix" a problem Should kids learn to code? Steve's take: learn to vibe code—understand functions, classes, architecture, and capabilities in a language-neutral way, but skip the syntax The 2025 vision: "factory farming of code" where orchestrators run Cloud Code, scrub output, plan-implement-review-test in loops, and unlock programming for non-programmers at scale — Steve Yegge X: https://x.com/steve_yegge Substack (Stevie's Tech Talks): https://steve-yegge.medium.com/ GitHub (VC / VibeCoder): https://github.com/yegge-labs Where to find Latent Space X: https://x.com/latentspacepod Substack: https://www.latent.space/ Chapters 00:00:00 Introduction: Steve Yegge on Vibe Coding and AI Engineering 00:00:59 The Backlash: Who Resists Vibe Coding and Why 00:04:26 The 2000 Hour Rule: Building Trust with AI Coding Tools 00:03:31 The January 1st Deadline: IDEs Are Becoming Obsolete 00:02:55 10X Productivity at OpenAI: The Performance Review Problem 00:07:49 The Hot Hand Fallacy: When AI Agents Betray Your Trust 00:11:12 Claude Code Isn't It: The Need for Agent Orchestration 00:15:20 The Orchestrator Revolution: From Cloud Code to Agent Villages 00:18:46 The Merge Wall: The Biggest Unsolved Problem in AI Coding 00:26:33 Never Rewrite Your Code - Until Now: Joel Spolsky Was Wrong 00:22:43 Factory Farming Code: The John Deere Era of Software 00:29:27 Google's Gemini Turnaround and the AI Lab Chaos 00:33:20 Should Your Kids Learn to Code? The New Answer 00:34:59 Code MCP and the Gossip Rate: Latest Vibe Coding Discoveries



Latent Space: The AI Engineer Podcast