PIMCO Accrued Interest

A confluence of rising sovereign debt, surging AI-related corporate bond issuance, and inflation concerns has lifted 30-year yields in the U.S. and elsewhere to two-decade highs. On the heels of their very popular July episode – Old-Fashioned Bond Math for a New-Fashioned Fed – Marc Seidner and Pramol Dhawan join host Greg Hall to discuss.

Show notes:

(3:37) Rising rates are a global term-premium story

(4:46) Treasury's response

(7:15) What actually drove the move higher in rates

(11:56) AI issuance and "indigestion"

(14:49) The 30-year is not the 10-year

(19:07) Mixed data and Jackson Hole

If you enjoyed episode, read the piece behind today's conversation:

What’s Pushing Long-Term Bond Yields Higher?

The discussion and content provided within this podcast is intended for informational purposes only and may not be appropriate for all investors. Reliance upon information provided in a podcast is at the sole responsibility of the listener. The information included herein is not based on any particularized financial situation, or need, and is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, a forecast, research, investment advice or a recommendation for any specific PIMCO or other security, strategy, product or service. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. Investors should speak to their financial advisors regarding the investment mix that may be right for them based on their financial situation and investment objective. Podcasts may involve discussions with non-PIMCO personnel and such content contain the current opinions of the speaker but not necessarily those of PIMCO. Other podcasts may consist of audio recording of an existing PIMCO article and such material contains the current opinions of the manager. The opinions expressed in all podcasts are subject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. PIMCO as a general matter provides services to qualified institutions, financial intermediaries and institutional investors. This is not an offer to any person in any jurisdiction where unlawful or unauthorized. For additional important information go to www.pimco.com/gbl/en/general/legal-pages/podcast-disclosures

Global cycles have fallen out of sync, and the gaps between markets are widening. PIMCO CIO of Global Fixed Income Andrew Balls says that's the exact type of environment where global active management matters most.

Why different parts of the yield curve look attractive in different markets, and how active management can isolate duration by country and by tenor

Why fixed income can serve as both a diversifier to offset volatility and a source of alpha

What AI dominance in the U.S. and China, German defense spending, and other country-specific shifts mean for global bonds

Show notes:

[9:59] The thesis of Rupture and Resilience

[15:43] Politics driving economics in Japan, the U.K., and Europe

[30:47] The AI supercycle in Europe vs. the U.S.

[36:13] The investment implications of rearming Europe

[40:51] Europe and the global energy complex

[43:42] Making the case for global fixed income

If you enjoyed the episode, check out more of our resources on global fixed income:

Podcast: Old-Fashioned Bond Math for a New-Fashioned Fed (Apple or Spotify)

Read: Rupture and Resilience

Watch: Why Global Bonds Matter Now

The discussion and content provided within this podcast is intended for informational purposes only and may not be appropriate for all investors. Reliance upon information provided in a podcast is at the sole responsibility of the listener. The information included herein is not based on any particularized financial situation, or need, and is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, a forecast, research, investment advice or a recommendation for any specific PIMCO or other security, strategy, product or service. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. Investors should speak to their financial advisors regarding the investment mix that may be right for them based on their financial situation and investment objective. Podcasts may involve discussions with non-PIMCO personnel and such content contain the current opinions of the speaker but not necessarily those of PIMCO. Other podcasts may consist of audio recording of an existing PIMCO article and such material contains the current opinions of the manager. The opinions expressed in all podcasts are subject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. PIMCO as a general matter provides services to qualified institutions, financial intermediaries and institutional investors. This is not an offer to any person in any jurisdiction where unlawful or unauthorized. For additional important information go to www.pimco.com/gbl/en/general/legal-pages/podcast-disclosures

Under a Warsh-led Fed, with less explicit guidance and less implicit backstop, Marc Seidner and Pramol Dhawan tell host Greg Hall that bond math starts to matter again. Listen as they explore:

· The “Warsh Dividend” and what it could mean for investors?

· Why diversification still matters in a market increasingly dominated by a handful of mega-cap stocks.

· Exorcising the ghost of 2022 – How duration and higher yields are working in bond investors' favor again.

Show notes

[1:26] The Thesis of "Old-Fashioned Bond Math for New-Fashioned Fed"

[8:16] Investing over the past decade vs investing now

[16:20] What to expect from a Warsh-led Fed

[21:40] If nothing changed at the Fed

[25:56] Synergies with fixed income​‌

If you enjoyed episode, read the piece behind today's conversation:

· Old-Fashioned Bond Math for a New-Fashioned Fed

And check out other related sources about the opportunity in fixed income:

· Read: Global Bond Diversification: Higher Yields and New Opportunities for Alpha

· Listen: Lotfi Karoui on Private Credit and the AI CapEx Supercycle (Apple or Spotify)

The discussion and content provided within this podcast is intended for informational purposes only and may not be appropriate for all investors. Reliance upon information provided in a podcast is at the sole responsibility of the listener. The information included herein is not based on any particularized financial situation, or need, and is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, a forecast, research, investment advice or a recommendation for any specific PIMCO or other security, strategy, product or service. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. Investors should speak to their financial advisors regarding the investment mix that may be right for them based on their financial situation and investment objective. Podcasts may involve discussions with non-PIMCO personnel and such content contain the current opinions of the speaker but not necessarily those of PIMCO. Other podcasts may consist of audio recording of an existing PIMCO article and such material contains the current opinions of the manager. The opinions expressed in all podcasts are subject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. PIMCO as a general matter provides services to qualified institutions, financial intermediaries and institutional investors. This is not an offer to any person in any jurisdiction where unlawful or unauthorized. For additional important information go to https://www.pimco.com/gbl/en/general/legal-pages/podcast-disclosures

From the pages of The Credit Market Lens to the Accrued Interest microphone, Lotfi Karoui joins host Greg Hall to explore why the focus on direct lending may be overshadowing the structural themes important to the future of credit markets. Together, they discuss the cyclical pressures weighing on business development companies and why liquidity alone may not resolve today’s challenges. Looking ahead, they explain why the AI CapEx super cycle, global energy reshoring, and renewed defense spending may test the market’s ability to absorb issuance. For advisors, these dynamics highlight the potential value of diversification in bonds and emerging markets.
Show notes:
(2:24) The State of Direct Lending
(9:24) Will Transparency or Liquidity Help
(20:49) The Default Cycle in Credit has Begun
(25:05) Return of the Financial Engineers
(28:53) Financing the AI Super Cycle
(40:33) What’s Compelling in Credit Markets
(44:21) Revisiting the 60/40 Portfolio
If you want to go deeper, check out a few of Lotfi’s articles mentioned in the episode:

• The Credit Market Lens: Sharpe Is Back in Emerging Markets
• Daily Pricing Is Not Daily Liquidity

Sign up for The Credit Market Lens, a weekly newsletter Lotfi publishes on LinkedIn and PIMCO.com
The discussion and content provided within this podcast is intended for informational purposes only and may not be appropriate for all investors. Reliance upon information provided in a podcast is at the sole responsibility of the listener. The information included herein is not based on any particularized financial situation, or need, and is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, a forecast, research, investment advice or a recommendation for any specific PIMCO or other security, strategy, product or service. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. Investors should speak to their financial advisors regarding the investment mix that may be right for them based on their financial situation and investment objective. Podcasts may involve discussions with non-PIMCO personnel and such content contain the current opinions of the speaker but not necessarily those of PIMCO. Other podcasts may consist of audio recording of an existing PIMCO article and such material contains the current opinions of the manager. The opinions expressed in all podcasts are subject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. PIMCO as a general matter provides services to qualified institutions, financial intermediaries and institutional investors. This is not an offer to any person in any jurisdiction where unlawful or unauthorized. For additional important information go to www.pimco.com/gbl/en/general/legal-pages/podcast-disclosures

We didn't rename the podcast… we're just drilling into commodities this
episode, and for good reason. Few asset classes sit at the center of so many disruptive forces right now. The global energy complex is contending with both the near-term shock of the Iran conflict and the long-term push for energy security. The AI infrastructure buildout is devouring power and raw materials, and reshoring and renewed defense spending are adding to demand pressures. Greg Sharenow, who leads PIMCO's commodity portfolio management group, joins Greg Hall to explain how these dynamics will test the balance between rising demand and disrupted supply – and why commodities deserve a close look from advisors.

Show notes:
(0:52) The beginning of the end of this phase
(7:04) Measuring what’s happened to global energy supply
(9:28) Left tail vs base case vs right tail
(11:03) The new face of the global energy complex
(18:42) Commodities and three CapEx cycles
(27:37) Will energy prices impact the economic outlook?
(31:31) A look back at gold and look forward
(34:41) Commodities’ role in portfolio construction
The discussion and content provided within this podcast is intended for informational purposes only and may not be appropriate for all investors. Reliance upon information provided in a podcast is at the sole responsibility of the listener. The information included herein is not based on any particularized financial situation, or need, and is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, a forecast, research, investment advice or a recommendation for any specific PIMCO or other security, strategy, product or service. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. Investors should speak to their financial advisors regarding the investment mix that may be right for them based on their financial situation and investment objective. Podcasts may involve discussions with non-PIMCO personnel and such content contain the current opinions of the speaker but not necessarily those of PIMCO. Other podcasts may consist of audio recording of an existing PIMCO article and such material contains the current opinions of the manager. The opinions expressed in all podcasts are subject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. PIMCO as a general matter provides services to qualified institutions, financial intermediaries and institutional investors. This is not an offer to any person in any jurisdiction where unlawful or unauthorized. For additional important information go to www.pimco.com/gbl/en/general/legal-pages/podcast-disclosures