Jeffrey Gundlach Says Almost All Financial Assets Are Now Overvalued
Stocks are overpriced. Bonds are overpriced. And private assets are a powder keg. This is the view of Jeffrey Gundlach, the founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital. As part of our 10-year anniversary celebration of the Odd Lots podcast, we've been talking to some big names in markets and economics to get a sense of how they see the world and what's changed in recent years. One major change, obviously, is the end of ZIRP. And while Treasuries have rallied modestly this year, Gundlach sees mounting pressure on government balance sheets pushing yields higher going into the future. We also talk about gold, the greater opportunities for a US-based investor when looking internationally, and why everyone should be holding more cash in their portfolios.Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
--------
59:18
--------
59:18
Citi's Dirk Willer on How You Know When the Bubble Is Over
According to Dirk Willer, the Global Head of Macro Strategy at Citigroup, we are definitely in bubble territory. Per his research, the stock market has been in a bubble since May. Unlike many people, whose definitions of bubbles are a bit more vague or a bit more based on sentiment, Dirk's work focuses on precise timing and price indicators that distinguish bubbles from mere booms. Furthermore, he argues that when the bubble first forms, the correct move historically is to buy into it and then just accept that you'll never nail the top perfectly. On this episode, we talk about his overall approach as well as the signs of when the bubble has come to an end. We also talk about current parallels to the dotcom bubble, why gold has had such a monster year, and the signs from the Treasury market that make the US look increasingly like an emerging market. Read more:Stock Bounce Wanes on Fed Angst as Bitcoin Plunges: Markets WrapGold ‘Trading Like a Meme Stock’ Sets Up Miners as Levered Bet Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
--------
39:52
--------
39:52
Why Paul Kedrosky Says AI Is Like Every Bubble All Rolled Into One
In recent weeks, there's been renewed anxiety about the sustainability of the AI boom. This is partly due to comments from OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar about a possible role for a government backstop in the AI infrastructure build out. We've also seen the stock market wobble, with many major tech names hit hard. But even with all these concerns, we continue to see new announcements all the time. Just this week, Anthropic said it would spend $50 billion on data center development in the US. So are we actually in a bubble? Our guest on this episode believes we are -- and not just any bubble. According to Paul Kedrosky, a longtime VC currently at SK Ventures, the AI bubble is like every previous bubble rolled into one. There's the real estate element. There's the tech element. And, increasingly, there are exotic financing structures being put in place to fund it all. And then on top of that, there's talk of government bailouts and backstops. In this episode, we walk through some of the math that would be required to justify all this spending, and how the seemingly existential stakes of 'winning the AI race' is causing an unsustainable investment binge. Read more:AI Startup Cursor Raises Funds at $29.3 Billion ValuationPoint72’s Drossos Sees AI Boom Driving Gains in Asian Currencies Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
--------
47:29
--------
47:29
Cliff Asness on How Markets Got Dumber in the Last 10 Years
The Odd Lots podcast has been around for 10 years. Unfortunately, markets have gotten less rational over the same time frame. At least this is the contention of Cliff Asness, the co-founder and CEO of AQR Capital Management, a quantitative investing firm that's been around for nearly three decades. Asness' approach to investing is rooted in academic theory, having studied under the legendary Eugene Fama at the University of Chicago. In the world of social media and meme stocks, it's tough out there for the academically minded. And that's forced Cliff to adjust his approach over time. On this episode, we talk about the history of quantitative investing, market efficiency, and the emergence of AI/ML in his process. We also talk about the reality of investing other people's money, and the challenge of sticking with one's convictions at a time when temporary forces are working against you.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
--------
57:17
--------
57:17
Jerry Neumann on the Problem With Investing in AI Right Now
AI has made a lot of people fabulously wealthy. But sorry, it's probably not going to be the thing that makes you rich. And if history is any guide, we don't even know who the real AI winners are going to be. That's the thesis from longtime Venture Capitalist (now retired) Jerry Neumann. Earlier this year, Neumann published an article, "AI Will Not Make You Rich," putting the AI boom in the context of previous technological revolutions, such as the shipping container. He points out that a lot of the companies that were early to shipping containers didn't make much money, and that the real winners were the new businesses that emerged later and took advantage of the shipping container to build new business models (think about the likes of Walmart or Target). In this conversation, we talk about why it's so hard to invest in technological revolutions, where we are in the cycle, why he's getting out of VC, and when the big opportunities will eventually emerge. Read more:SoftBank Sells Nvidia Stake for $5.8 Billion to Fund AI BetsAI’s $5 Trillion Cost Needs Every Debt Market, JPMorgan Says Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.
México