Forward Guidance

• The Great Ponzi-fication Of Markets | Weekly Roundup

  This week, Le Shrub joins the show to lay out his barbell portfolio strategy and "GAG" (Golden Age of Grift) thesis. We discuss fiscal dominance, bond market dysfunction, yield curve control, and why crypto—especially ETH—is gaining traction as the new high-yield frontier. We also cover risk scenarios like Japan yield shocks, Powell’s potential firing, rising inflation swaps, and how private equity and crypto are being funneled into 401(k)s to keep the system afloat. Enjoy! — Follow Le Shrub: https://x.com/agnostoxxx Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for $100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1QhG4HJA0tyvEtFncy_voFFm5LEOKEcib/view?usp=sharing — This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted. https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:54) Shrub Portfolio (07:47) Macro Setup (12:36) Ads (VanEck, Aptos) (13:56) Yields Too High? (16:33) Bessent & QRA (18:53) “Fire Powell” Trial Balloon (20:53) Trading The Ponzi (24:48) Japan & Inflation (26:41) Who’s Gonna Buy The Bonds? (33:24) Are Recessions Over? (34:18) Ads (VanEck, Apotos) (35:42) Are Recessions Over? (36:34) Weimar Endgame (38:58) Coldplay Affair (40:41) Volatility, Hedging & Hedge Funds (47:09) Inflation vs Growth (49:52) Trump Risk & Grift (54:13) “Democratizing” Finance (56:36) Crypto Treasury Companies (01:04:07) Why Do You Own Things? (01:05:05) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

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• We’re Entering The Final Phase Of Fiscal Dominance | David Beckworth

  In this episode, Senior Research Fellow at Mercatus Center and host of Macro Musings David Beckworth breaks down the rising risks of fiscal dominance—when the Fed prioritizes government solvency over price stability. He explains the historical context of fiscal dominance, the warning signs we’re seeing today, and why current debt levels, persistent deficits, and political gridlock are pushing us closer to stage three. Beckworth also dives into the mechanics of stablecoins, the Treasury’s issuance strategy, and potential reforms to the Fed’s operating system, including balance sheet management and NGDP targeting. He warns that without serious structural change, the Fed’s independence and credibility may be at risk. Enjoy! __ Follow David: https://x.com/DavidBeckworth Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for $100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted. https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:27) Major Regime Shift (05:00) Last Era of Fiscal Dominance (08:13) Ads (VanEck, Aptos) (09:35) Fiscal Dominance Catalysts (12:29) Phases of Fiscal Dominance (18:37) Can Stablecoins Help? (23:51) Active Treasury Issuance (26:44) Ads (VanEck, Aptos) (28:06) Is the Endgame YCC? (31:29) Crossing the Rubicon (33:23) Fed Monetary Policy Framework (38:18) The Ideal Fed Reaction Function (45:18) Rethinking Forward Guidance (47:52) Balance Sheet Goals (52:13) Realistic to Offload Duration? (54:38) Should We Remove IORB? (01:13) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

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• The Only Assets That Beat Fiat Debasement | Raoul Pal & Julien Bittel

  In this episode, Raoul Pal and Julien Bittel explain their “Everything Code” framework showing how global debt cycles, demographics, and liquidity drive all asset prices. They argue fiat debasement is running at ~8% annually, meaning only tech stocks and crypto have outperformed over time, while gold just preserves purchasing power. They discuss the societal and economic implications of AI replacing human labor, the end of traditional recessions, why liquidity will keep increasing to roll debts, and how this cycle could mirror or exceed 2017’s asset booms. Enjoy! __ Follow Raoul: https://x.com/RaoulGMI Follow Julien: https://x.com/BittelJulien Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for $100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted. https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ — Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:50 Big Macro Picture 05:52 Demographics & Debt 10:36 Liquidity & Real Returns 13:43 What is the Endgame? 14:33 Ads (Aptos) 17:49 The Everything Code 20:43 Shifting from QE to Bills 25:12 Financial Conditions 29:40 What’s Driving Gold? 31:42 2017 on Steroids 36:00 Ads (Aptos) 36:52 Nothing Stops This Train 38:32 Removing Recession Risk 44:27 Immigration 46:42 What Happens Next? 55:04 Resurgence of Religion 58:27 When Banana Zone? __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

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• Unpacking The Crypto Treasury Meta

  In this live panel from Permissionless IV, we unpack the rapid rise of token acquisition vehicles like MicroStrategy and Defi Dev Corp. We explore why institutions are using these vehicles to accumulate crypto faster, analyze premium-to-NAV dynamics, discuss the evolution from equity issuance to innovative debt structures like converts and moving strike warrants, and debate sustainability risks if NAV premiums collapse. Enjoy! __ Follow Dan: https://x.com/CryptoIRGuy Follow Tom: https://x.com/fundstrat Follow David: https://x.com/David_Grid Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:05) The Rise of Crypto Treasury Companies (07:45) What Catalyzed this Trend? (08:27) Ledger Ad (09:24) What Catalyzed this Trend? (14:17) Unpacking the Capital Structure (20:26) Risks to Crypto Treasury Companies (22:06) Ledger Ad (23:00) Risks to Crypto Treasury Companies (30:53) Asset Unwind Risk __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Crypto #Markets #ForwardGuidance

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• All Roads Lead To Debasement | Weekly Roundup

  This week, we dive into the latest jobs and unemployment data surprises, the hidden role of immigration in labor force changes, and why both political parties are terrible. We also dig into the looming deficit and treasury issuance implications, the EM-ification of the US, the symptoms of a failed system, and the inevitability of currency debasement. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WckOC1BLjh33MBzZsCrHM5TatPCd1EZF/view?usp=sharing — Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted. https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Cold Open (04:00) Bullish NFP? (08:25) Ads (Aptos) (11:12) Anti-Immigration Impact (17:32) Wage Growth, Yields & Controlled Demolition (21:22) BBB Passed, Now What? (26:40) Ads (Aptos) (27:32) Both Sides Are Terrible (34:32) High-Yield Credit (37:17) Get Out on the Risk Spectrum (39:52) Active Treasury Issuance Greater Than QE (41:37) The Problem is Getting Worse (44:12) All Roads Lead to Debasement (46:58) Crushing Global Labor (48:52) DXY & the End of Central Banking (51:47) EM-ification of the US (54:12) MSTR & BTC Volatility (58:44) Seasonality, Leverage & Momentum (01:01:32) Symptoms of a Failed System (01:08:50) Buying vs Renting (01:13:28) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

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