The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost

Wilfred Frost sits down with macro strategist Luke Gromen, founder of independent macro research firm Forest For The Trees (FFTT), for a wide-ranging conversation on the growing fragility of Western sovereign bond markets, the economic fallout from the Iran war, and why he believes gold is quietly replacing US Treasuries as the world's reserve asset.

Luke argues that markets continue to underestimate the implications of the Iran war, while acknowledging he underestimated China's ability to reduce its short-term oil import needs. The conversation turns to why rising western bond yields – not oil prices – are the bigger threat, with Luke laying out his "variant perception" that future risk-off events will trigger only brief yield declines before yields spike even higher as equities fall, a pattern he says has repeated since 2020. He details Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's roughly 4.4%-4.9% "pain threshold" on 10-year yields and warns that repeated policy retreats are steadily eroding US credibility as the backstop of the Treasury market. 

He is deeply bearish on long bonds and believes equity markets are exceptionally complacent in the short term. However, he argues that any major sell-off is ultimately likely to become a buying opportunity, as the Fed and US Treasury will prioritise Treasury market functioning over fighting inflation. His advice: de-lever, be prepared to buy the (significant) market dip and importantly, own gold.

A central theme is Luke’s thesis that China isn't pushing the RMB as a dollar replacement – but rather promoting gold as the new global reserve asset in place of US Treasuries, using offshore yuan-clearing hubs in London, Switzerland, Dubai, and elsewhere to let trading partners convert RMB into gold. He cites China's accelerating gold import volumes and argues this dynamic points to a much higher long-term gold price, alongside a weaker dollar over time. 

The discussion concludes with where Luke is finding investment opportunities. He highlights US electrical infrastructure, including ETFs like PAVE and GRID, and Japanese industrial equities as key beneficiaries of reshoring and grid rebuilding, while cautioning that equity markets remain complacent near-term even as he stays structurally bullish long-term. His overriding message to investors is simple: stay unlevered, own some gold, and ensure you're positioned to survive the volatility ahead so you can take advantage of what he believes will be a highly bullish decade for equities.

 

0:00 Intro

3:00 Iran War impact underpriced

5:45 China has more leverage than realised

6:54 Rates will move higher until something breaks

10:55 Yield tipping points 

15:18 LT supply-demand dynamic for USTs

22:08 The Fed will step in

24:04 UK, Jap, Ger, Fra all at risk 

26:57 Equities extremely complacent 

28:20 Equities rational in dollar terms

32:53 Dollar weakness vs gold not other currencies

36:06 Own gold

40:48 China’s surprising aim with gold

45:50 If gold beats USTs….buy stocks

47:48 Buy electrical infrastructure & Japan

51:43 Conclusion - deleverage, own gold, buy dip 

 

Sign up to Luke Gromen’s newsletter here: https://fftt-treerings.com/ 

Check out our podcast channel The Master Investor Podcast YouTube channel

 

And follow @WilfredFrost on X and Linked In

 

Sponsored by BNY Investments, Interactive Brokers - ibkr.com/masterinvestor, The World Gold Council and London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG). 

 

The Master Investor Podcast is produced by Paradine Productions, Master Investor Ltd in association with Bird Lime Media.

 

This podcast is for information purposes only. It does not constitute an invitation or inducement to engage in any investment activity. It is not a financial promotion as defined under section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (FSMA). The views expressed by the presenter of this podcast are those of the presenter and are provided in the course of journalism. This podcast benefits from the exemption under Article 20 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (FPO), It does not require approval by a person authorised under the FSMA. Generic information, not identifying any specific investment, fund, provider or service, about a class of investments such as shares, bonds, derivatives and cryptoassets, might be provided and/or discussed during this podcast. Such discussion falls within the generic promotions exemption (Article 17 of the FPO). Such discussion is not a financial promotion requiring approval by an authorised person under section 21 of the FSMA. Investing involves risk. You should consult a suitably qualified adviser who can assess your individual circumstances before making any investment decision.

Wilfred Frost welcomes back legendary investor Jim Mellon for his fourth, and typically candid and outspoken, appearance on the podcast.

Jim discusses investor fatigue with US mega-cap technology companies, noting the Magnificent 7’s 30% average drop since their June highs. He also highlights the recent struggles of SpaceX, characterising it as the "biggest short of all time", and a sign of a major tipping point for markets.

While many investors fear a renewed Iran conflict could send energy markets soaring, Jim argues the world is adapting to the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. He outlines his active trading strategy for oil and his continued bullishness on North Sea oil and gas stocks, such as Ithaca Energy, but why he has faded many of his other long positions in the oil and gas space. 

He acknowledges that he has been wrong about his bullish position in the Japanese Yen, but doubles down on his call, recapping why he remains a believer that the Yen is incredibly cheap, and revealing that he has the bulk of his cash stored in the currency.

Jim also reveals that he has faded his commodity exposure to gold and silver, albeit remains constructive on gold miners; that his favourite equity market at the moment is small-cap UK stocks; and why he thinks psychedelics and food security are powerful long term themes to explore.

Jim closes by reminding listeners that "a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of a small mind" and advises them to remain nimble and be prepared to change their minds in volatile markets, predicting cheaper buying opportunities ahead. 

 

0:00 Intro

2:25 US tech at tipping point

7:10 Strait of Hormuz less important than feared

9:27 Long UK North Sea plays

11:38 Fading most oil & gas longs

12:39 Debt LT problem not ST

15:28 US not the only risky bond mkt

17:41 Bullish on Yen still

23:22 Gold miners over gold/silver metal

26:07 Bullish UK small caps

29:46 The case for psychedelics 

32:23 Novel proteins 

39:12 Broad mkts trading heavy

41:49 Cheaper entry point ahead 

You can watch the full video on The Master Investor Podcast YouTube channel

 

And follow @WilfredFrost on X and Linked In

 

Sponsored by BNY Investments, Interactive Brokers - ibkr.com/masterinvestor, The World Gold Council and London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG). 

 

The Master Investor Podcast is produced by Paradine Productions, Master Investor Ltd in association with Bird Lime Media.

 

This podcast is for information purposes only. It does not constitute an invitation or inducement to engage in any investment activity. It is not a financial promotion as defined under section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (FSMA). The views expressed by the presenter of this podcast are those of the presenter and are provided in the course of journalism. This podcast benefits from the exemption under Article 20 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (FPO), It does not require approval by a person authorised under the FSMA. Generic information, not identifying any specific investment, fund, provider or service, about a class of investments such as shares, bonds, derivatives and cryptoassets, might be provided and/or discussed during this podcast. Such discussion falls within the generic promotions exemption (Article 17 of the FPO). Such discussion is not a financial promotion requiring approval by an authorised person under section 21 of the FSMA. Investing involves risk. You should consult a suitably qualified adviser who can assess your individual circumstances before making any investment decision.

In this episode of The Master Investor Podcast, Wilfred Frost sits down with the undisputed heavyweight champion of global finance: Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase.

Leading the world’s largest bank through 20 years of global economic crises, Dimon brings unprecedented, unfiltered insights into the true state of the macroeconomy. From inflation and government debt to AI, geopolitics and market valuations, this is a masterclass in risk management, leadership and long-term thinking.

Dimon's clearest market call is on long-dated government bonds: "I would not be a buyer." Drawing parallels with the inflationary spiral of the 1970s, he warns that investors may be underestimating the risks posed by record government deficits, rising interest rates and an increasingly unstable geopolitical backdrop. That said – he does think the world economy is more resilient in the face of oil price increases, and believes President Trump should pursue his goals in the Middle East regardless of its effects on the US economy, which he said can handle it.

On AI, Dimon is optimistic about its long-term impact but sceptical that today's expectations will be met on the timeline investors anticipate. "Will it pay off? Probably. Will it pay off the way you expect, and in the timetable you expect? Definitely not." In light of that, he would not be buying the broad equity market at this level either.

The conversation then shifts from markets to leadership. Reflecting on two decades at the helm of JPMorgan Chase, during which the bank has increased in value eightfold, Dimon discusses the hidden dangers of bureaucracy, why insecure CEOs make poor leaders, the importance of character over credentials, and how to build organisations that can thrive long after their leader has gone.

Finally, Dimon opens up about the lonely reality of making billion-dollar decisions, the moment he signed the Bear Stearns acquisition during the financial crisis, surviving two life-threatening health crises, living with no regrets, and the family values that have kept him grounded throughout one of the most successful careers in modern business.

Conversation took place on Thursday 16 July 2026 in Washington DC.

 

0:00 Intro

2:14 As good as it gets environment

3:08 Risks bigger than people expect

4:28 Resilience despite Iran

9:21 Would not buy bonds here

12:50 AI risk & opportunity

15:16 Not buyer of SP500 here

16:02 SpaceX valuation

17:45 Lessons from Financial Crisis

19:09 Don’t expect success

21:00 Loneliness of leadership

23:25 Commitment to NYC @NYCMayor

25:03 I want @AndyBurnham to succeed

26:40 UK Banks Levy is wrong

29:14 Fighting bureaucracy

33:20 Character most important trait

35:26 Insecurity ruins leaders

39:46 Success is not just your own

43:15 Politics is a very tough game

47:55 Dimon’s founder-like impact & succession

51:30 Near death experience

53:05 Family

56:34 Learn, learn, learn – from history & people

You can watch the full video on The Master Investor Podcast YouTube channel

 

And follow @WilfredFrost on X and Linked In

 

Sponsored by BNY Investments, Interactive Brokers - ibkr.com/masterinvestor, The World Gold Council and London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG). 

 

The Master Investor Podcast is produced by Paradine Productions, Master Investor Ltd in association with Bird Lime Media.

 

This podcast is for information purposes only. It does not constitute an invitation or inducement to engage in any investment activity. It is not a financial promotion as defined under section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (FSMA). The views expressed by the presenter of this podcast are those of the presenter and are provided in the course of journalism. This podcast benefits from the exemption under Article 20 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (FPO), It does not require approval by a person authorised under the FSMA. Generic information, not identifying any specific investment, fund, provider or service, about a class of investments such as shares, bonds, derivatives and cryptoassets, might be provided and/or discussed during this podcast. Such discussion falls within the generic promotions exemption (Article 17 of the FPO). Such discussion is not a financial promotion requiring approval by an authorised person under section 21 of the FSMA. Investing involves risk. You should consult a suitably qualified adviser who can assess your individual circumstances before making any investment decision.

How do you separate genuine innovation from pure hype? That is perhaps THE question of the moment for investors when it comes to AI, and it is also the question Kara Swisher has thought about for her entire career as the premier tech journalist of our time. She is co-founder of Recode and the host of powerhouse podcasts like Pivot and On with Kara Swisher, and she brings her trademark candor – and the occasional swear word – to the latest episode of The Master Investor Podcast to break down the realities behind tech’s biggest narratives. 

Kara has interviewed every major tech CEO of the modern era, and reflects on the traits that lead to trillion dollar companies and those that destroy shareholder value. Ultimately she thinks society overestimates the intelligence of many tech innovators, reflecting on the failure of the Metaverse and Cyber Truck, and identifies the character traits to watch out for – losing your passion and focus for the original job; talking too much to the media; and spending money on vanity projects. She reflects fondly on the lessons she has learned from Steve Jobs and Satya Nadella – and the extent to which they simply focused on running a business instead of talking to the press. 

Wilf and Kara discuss why OpenAI will likely struggle to IPO this year even if Anthropic succeeds, and the ways in which the current AI frenzy mirrors the dot-com bubble. In particular the fact that not all frontier models will stay the course. In fact, the name she backs is Google’s Gemini much more than the much hyped new names like OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX.

Kara also reflects on social media and AI regulation and how it might impact share prices; the secret to building successful podcasts and her number one piece of career advice – “step out of line”.

Recorded Thursday 9th July 2026

Listen to Kara’s podcast Pivot here - https://podfollow.com/1073226719

And On with Kara Swisher here -  https://podfollow.com/1643307527

 

0:00 Intro

3:00 AI alarm bells

4:38 Only one AI winner

6:18 “Absolutely” bubble territory 

9:37 Valuing tech companies

14:27 Valuing tech CEOs

16:37 Capital mkts generous to tech

18:22 Operators vs Innovators

22:35 CEO warning signs 

27:36 Tech regulation 

30:13 Under 16s social media ban

34:28 What makes a great podcast?

42:13 Wealth isn’t happiness 

44:03 “Step out of line”

 

You can watch the full video on The Master Investor Podcast YouTube channel

 

And follow @WilfredFrost on X and Linked In

 

Sponsored by BNY Investments, Interactive Brokers - ibkr.com/masterinvestor, The World Gold Council and London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG). 

 

The Master Investor Podcast is produced by Paradine Productions, Master Investor Ltd in association with Bird Lime Media.

 

This podcast is for information purposes only. It does not constitute an invitation or inducement to engage in any investment activity. It is not a financial promotion as defined under section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (FSMA). The views expressed by the presenter of this podcast are those of the presenter and are provided in the course of journalism. This podcast benefits from the exemption under Article 20 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (FPO), It does not require approval by a person authorised under the FSMA. Generic information, not identifying any specific investment, fund, provider or service, about a class of investments such as shares, bonds, derivatives and cryptoassets, might be provided and/or discussed during this podcast. Such discussion falls within the generic promotions exemption (Article 17 of the FPO). Such discussion is not a financial promotion requiring approval by an authorised person under section 21 of the FSMA. Investing involves risk. You should consult a suitably qualified adviser who can assess your individual circumstances before making any investment decision.

Robinhood didn't just survive one of the sharpest reversals in fintech, it emerged bigger, stronger and more ambitious than ever. After its market value collapsed by 80% to around $6 billion in 2022, the fintech pioneer has rebounded to nearly $100 billion, cementing its place at the centre of the next generation of finance. In this episode of The Master Investor Podcast, host Wilfred Frost sits down with Robinhood co-founder, chairman and CEO Vlad Tenev to dissect the evolution of retail trading and look ahead to the next frontiers of finance. 

 

Vlad pulls back the curtain on the mechanics of the pandemic-era meme stock craze, debunks the myth of institutional "smart money", and shares his perspective on whether we are currently living through an artificial intelligence bubble. 

But this isn't just a look back at market history. Vlad lays out his blueprint for Robinhood’s next decade of growth, covering the ongoing path for more stock ownership in the US as penetration crosses 65% and heads for 90%, and for industry growth from a lower base in new markets like the UK.

Vlad also explains his ambition to democratise access to private markets in the same way Robinhood transformed public investing, arguing that tokenisation and the company's in-house blockchain are the key to making it possible. He also reveals how Robinhood is harnessing AI to give investors more powerful tools and help them make smarter investment decisions.

 

0:00 Intro

3:20 Bubble Behaviour in 2020/21

8:56 Retail traders buy the dips

11:31 Robinhood IPO July 2021

12:30 Déjà vu 2026 vs 2021?

16:05 Stocks leading today are LT winners

19:33 The 3 factors that drove Robinhood success

24:45 Penetration of stock ownership

27:35 UK opportunity

31:18 Robinhood in-house blockchain

35:07 Tokenisation of private assets

41:20 AI impact on trading

43:53 Humans will always drive markets

45:17 Scale vs innovation

47:25 $100bn mkt cap aged 39

50:15 The New American Dream

53:16 Conclusion

You can watch the full video on The Master Investor Podcast YouTube channel

 

And follow @WilfredFrost on X and Linked In

 

Sponsored by BNY Investments, Interactive Brokers - ibkr.com/masterinvestor, The World Gold Council and London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG). 

 

The Master Investor Podcast is produced by Paradine Productions, Master Investor Ltd in association with Bird Lime Media.

 

This podcast is for information purposes only. It does not constitute an invitation or inducement to engage in any investment activity. It is not a financial promotion as defined under section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (FSMA). The views expressed by the presenter of this podcast are those of the presenter and are provided in the course of journalism. This podcast benefits from the exemption under Article 20 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (FPO), It does not require approval by a person authorised under the FSMA. Generic information, not identifying any specific investment, fund, provider or service, about a class of investments such as shares, bonds, derivatives and cryptoassets, might be provided and/or discussed during this podcast. Such discussion falls within the generic promotions exemption (Article 17 of the FPO). Such discussion is not a financial promotion requiring approval by an authorised person under section 21 of the FSMA. Investing involves risk. You should consult a suitably qualified adviser who can assess your individual circumstances before making any investment decision.