RiskReversal Pod

Dan Nathan and Jeff Richards (Managing Partner at Notable Capital) discuss shifting AI narratives and market crosscurrents, focusing on OpenAI, Anthropic (which Notable backs), xAI, Gemini, and Microsoft’s Copilot. Richards argues Claude/Cowork’s breakout and rapid model improvement are forcing every software company to ask whether its product improves as models improve, while public-market uncertainty has pressured SaaS valuations even as enterprise AI demand accelerates. He says net-new IT spend is increasingly flowing to private AI companies with consumption-based pricing, while incumbents face the Innovator’s Dilemma and pricing cannibalization. They also cover cloud infrastructure demand, opaque private-company financials, IPO considerations, and how volatility and redemption dynamics in private credit are weighing on alt managers like Apollo, KKR, and Blackstone, though Richards expects any issues to be relatively contained.

Articles Mentioned

OpenAI to double workforce as business push intensifies (FT)

xAI Sends Engineers to Client Sites to Win Business from OpenAI (Bloomberg)

Microsoft Copilot Is Confronting Its Identity Crisis (Bloomberg)

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MRKT Matrix - Tuesday, March 24th

S&P 500 falls, giving back chunk of Monday’s rally as oil prices rebound, Iran war continues (CNBC)

Jamie Dimon says Iran war makes Middle East peace prospects better in the long term (CNBC)

Dimon warns on AI job losses, calls for government-business incentives (CNBC)

Big Banks Are Playing Both Sides of the Private-Credit Meltdown (WSJ)

Apollo caps investor withdrawals from flagship private credit fund (FT)

Apple Plans AI Reboot With Siri App, New Look and ‘Ask Siri’ Button in iOS 27 (Bloomberg)

Meta Names New Leader of Push to Adopt AI Throughout Its Workforce (WSJ)

US must suspend Nvidia AI chip exports to China, senators say (FT)

OpenAI Set to Raise About $10 Billion From MGX, Coatue, Thrive (Bloomberg)

SoftBank tests its own borrowing limits with $30bn bet on OpenAI (FT)

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MRKT Matrix by RiskReversal Media is a daily AI powered podcast bringing you the top stories moving financial markets

Story curation by RiskReversal, scripts by Perplexity Pro, voice by ElevenLabs

Dan Nathan and Peter Boockvar discuss why equities have been slow to react to a widening Middle East conflict even as oil and other commodities jump, arguing markets often assume geopolitical shocks fade until prolonged damage forces a delayed repricing. They note a sharp global rise in rates—U.S. 10-year near 4.4% and record highs in UK/European yields—as central banks shift from expected cuts to potential hikes due to inflation spillovers from energy. Boockvar warns higher yields (4.5% then 5% as key levels) can pressure equities, private credit (lower-quality, floating-rate borrowers), housing and real estate, and upper-income spending, raising recession risk if oil stays near $120. He highlights weakening AI/mega-cap leadership, cites rising private-credit defaults, and frames gold’s volatile pullback as post-parabolic consolidation amid a stronger dollar and higher real rates, while staying bullish longer term on sovereign-debt risks.

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Guy Adami interviews investor George Noble about truth-telling, integrity, and eroding confidence in institutions and markets. They discuss trading realism (being right even 25% can be great), the dangers of becoming owned by a public position, and how results-chasing misallocates capital. Noble critiques passive investing for suppressing price discovery and warns reversals could be violent, citing Japan’s 1980s liquidity-driven market. He argues bonds are mispriced given deficits and inflation, expects rates/yields higher even if cuts come, and views asset gains as fiat currency debasement; he advocates owning gold (and some oil) as an inflation hedge. He criticizes private credit/equity as “mark-to-model” volatility laundering and urges real price discovery. Noble favors active management, rotation away from Mag 7, and describes his $99 idea-focused conference (800+ attendees) aimed at sharing veteran investors’ insights.

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Dan Nathan and Guy Adami host David Fortunato, CEO of Wealthfront, on the RiskReversal Podcast to discuss Wealthfront’s evolution from its 2010-era launch through years in private markets to its recent IPO and first public-company reporting. Fortunato recounts his path from the financial-crisis period to joining Kaching (which became Wealthfront), and explains key learnings: clients want to delegate investing, tactical allocation rarely delivers alpha, and systematic tax-loss harvesting can materially improve after-tax outcomes, later expanded via direct indexing. He describes Wealthfront’s younger, growing client base, referral-led acquisition, and focus on ease of use and peace of mind, plus products like a portfolio line of credit and a growing home-lending opportunity driven by lower acquisition costs through automation. Fortunato outlines how AI and technology support planning tools like Path, and says public-company visibility helps build awareness and trust.

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