RiskReversal Pod

Dan Nathan is joined by Steve Milunovich, a tech investor and retired sell-side analyst from Merrill Lynch. The discussion delves into the parallels between the AI boom and the dotcom era, touching on technological waves from the 1980s to the present. Milunovich highlights similarities such as early-stage winners, heavy capital expenditures, and the emergence of application layers later on. They also discuss the circular financing in the tech industry and potential risks, including heavy reliance on significant players like Nvidia and issues surrounding supply constraints. The conversation explores the broader implications of AI across various industries, including financial institutions and industrials, and considers the timeline for wider adoption and monetization of AI technologies. The dialogue is framed by historical context, with references to past tech bubbles, network effects, and the potential for new winners in unexpected sectors.

Show Notes

AI: The Wrong Kind of Bubble (Breadcrum.vc)

Meta inks deal to pay Corning up to $6 billion for fiber-optic cables in AI data centers (CNBC)

AI productivity is about to become visible and investable (FT)

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Guy Adami and Dan Nathan break down the biggest week of earnings season 2026, featuring high-stakes reports from Boeing, Microsoft, Texas Instruments, Apple, SanDisk, Western Digital, Exxon, and Chevron. Plus, Jen Saarbach and Kristin Kelly join for "He Said She Said" to analyze Japan's historic bond market crisis and the Netflix-Warner Bros-Paramount M&A saga.

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Dan Nathan and Guy Adami are joined by David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research. The discussion covers Rosenberg's past market predictions, his outlook for 2025-2026, and his insights on various economic themes. Rosenberg reflects on his bearish stance on US equities and bullish view on long-term treasuries, analyzing key trends like inflation, the impact of tariffs, and the strength of the US dollar. The conversation also touches on the influence of AI-related investments in the market, the economic implications of stock market performance, and the potential for recession given current employment and income data. Rosenberg emphasizes the importance of understanding market cycles and the significant role of investor behavior. The episode concludes with his views on gold prices, central bank policies, and possible future economic scenarios.

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Dan Nathan and Deirdre Bosa discuss recent advancements in AI-driven coding tools like Replit and Claude Cowork, sharing personal experiences and their potential to disrupt traditional software development. They elaborate on conversations with Amjad Masad of Replit and Aaron Levie of Box about the future of AI in software. The discussion also touches on the US-China AI rivalry, with CEOs from major tech companies urging policy support to compete with China's subsidized AI ecosystem. The conversation highlights concerns over software disruption, the impact of AI on the software market, and geopolitical implications for AI innovation.

After the break, Dan chats with Gene Munster, Managing Partner at Deepwater Asset Management, discuss the current state and future trends in AI-related investments as of 2026. Gene shares his perspectives on the AI market’s evolution over recent years, particularly focusing on key players like Nvidia and the dynamics around training versus inference. They talk about the impact of recent developments in coding assistants like Claude from Anthropic and its implications for the technology sector. The conversation also covers the valuation and growth prospects of major tech firms including Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, highlighting their individual strategies and market performance. The dialogue underscores a cautious optimism in the AI sector, with a focus on how technological advancements and market sentiment will influence investment decisions.

Links

Watch Dee's Convo with Replit's CEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GOa3SfkQ0vE

Watch Dee's Convo with the CEO of Box: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/11/12/box-ceo-trumps-deregulation-could-spark-a-tech-supercycle.html

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Guy Adami is joined by Danny Moses for a wide‑ranging macro conversation on gold, silver, Japan, energy stocks, banks, the Fed and the “K‑shaped” U.S. economy. They start with precious metals, breaking down why silver’s industrial demand from EVs, solar and AI data centers is creating a structural supply squeeze, what it means for gold vs. silver, and how miners like Coeur Mining (CDE), Freeport‑McMoRan (FCX) and Newmont (NEM) fit into the trade. From there, they connect the metals story to Japan’s weakening yen, surging bond yields, the carry trade, and the risk that a “point of no return” in Japanese policy spills over into U.S. Treasuries and global risk assets.

In this episode of 'He Said, She Said', Guy Adami, Kristen Kelly & Jen Saarbach dive into the theme of unintended consequences. The discussion begins with Jerome Powell's saga and its implications on the Fed's independence and market reactions, highlighting potential political maneuvers and their backfires. Transitioning to monetary policy, they analyze the complexities of interest rate decisions and the perceptions of Fed control over the yield curve. Shifting to consumer finance, they debate the Biden administration's proposal to cap credit card rates and its potential repercussions on the economy. Corporate drama takes center stage with an in-depth analysis of the bidding war for Warner Brothers, involving Netflix, Paramount, and regulatory hurdles, likened to a real-life 'Succession'. They conclude by addressing headlines about Blackstone's housing market involvement and the impact on prices, underscoring the intricate web of economic policies and market behaviors. The episode wraps with discussions on gold and silver markets, oil prices, and the weakening US dollar, showcasing the multifaceted landscape of global finance.

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