Today on Moment of Zen, Erik Torenberg talk with Samo Burja on nuclear weapons proliferation, energy geopolitics, and his "nuclear accelerationist" argument that widespread nuclear capability is inevitable, so countries should pursue abundant nuclear energy despite proliferation risks.
Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one:
Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/
Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers
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X / TWITTER:
@SamoBurja
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION:
Core Argument: "Nuclear Accelerationism"
Nuclear weapons proliferation is inevitable - the 80-year-old technology is only getting easier
We're paying security costs without reaping energy benefits
Should accelerate civilian nuclear development to achieve energy abundance
North Korea precedent: Even poor, isolated countries can build nukes
Japan example: Already has tons of plutonium, could build weapons in <1 year
Proliferation ratchet: Countries rarely denuclearize once they acquire weapons
National security incentives overwhelm nonproliferation efforts
Nuclear club expansion: Countries with existing weapons should build thousands of reactors
Energy exports: Non-nuclear countries buy electricity from nuclear neighbors
Scale economics: Need massive reactor deployment for true cost advantages
Incentive structure: Subsidize alternatives for countries that forgo nuclear tech
Small arsenals (dozens of nukes) create different dynamics than superpower stockpiles (thousands)
Current "doomsday machine" logic only applies to US/Russia/China
Widespread small arsenals might actually reduce conventional war risk
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1:03:21
The Future of Media with Noah Smith and Chris Best, CEO of Substack
Today on Moment of Zen, we're airing a conversation with economist Noah Smith and Substack CEO Chris Best discussing the evolving media landscape. They dive into whether Twitter's dominance is waning, what features a successor platform would need, and how artificial intelligence is set to transform media as we know it. This conversation originally took place live on Noah's Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
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SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | SQUAD
Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.
Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.
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RELATED LINKS:
Eugene Wei's Status as a Service: https://www.eugenewei.com/blog/2019/2/19/status-as-a-service
Twitter, Threads, and Remote Work with Eugene Wei:
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/1zSxuEAgUUlptJHNEr2Q7O
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/twitter-threads-and-remote-work-with-eugene-wei/id1661672738?i=1000621483289
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X / TWITTER:
@noahpinion
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
--
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION:
Breaking News Platform Concept
Noah proposed Substack could replace Twitter's former role as a breaking news hub by recruiting OSINT specialists and citizen journalists to create live blogs
These would function as both real-time updates and daily digest newsletters, solving the chicken-and-egg problem of audience vs. content
AI's Impact on Media
AI will serve as a "force multiplier" for writers rather than replacing them entirely
Key applications: summarization, curation, and search enhancement
Writers may use AI teams to amplify their unique perspectives and research capabilities
Platform Evolution
Twitter's decline attributed to the shift from chronological to algorithmic feeds (pull to push media)
The "age of Twitter" for breaking news lasted roughly 2011-2023
Substack currently excels at day-after analysis but lacks real-time news capabilities
Geopolitical Concerns
Noah expressed pessimism about US competitiveness against China due to population size (4x difference)
Concerns about weakened alliance systems under recent US foreign policy
Worries about falling behind in electric/battery technology due to policy and cultural resistance
Content Abundance Problem
Both noted the challenge of infinite content creation vs. scarce attention
Emphasized importance of choosing content that shapes who you become, not just what you want right now
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48:49
Are Dynasties Better Than Meritocracies?
Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg examine how dynastic succession can outperform meritocratic systems. The discussion analyzes successful family-controlled enterprises like the New York Times, Samsung, and Sweden's Wallenberg companies, arguing that hereditary structures can often solve succession problems more effectively than rational selection mechanisms.
Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one:
Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/
Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers
--
📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess
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SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | SQUAD
Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.
Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.
--
X / TWITTER:
@SamoBurja
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
--
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION:
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48:03
The Middle Class Myth and China’s Future with Noah Smith
Today on Moment of Zen, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith debunk the myth that globalization destroyed America's middle class, showing wages actually grew during hyperglobalization. It examines the limited "China shock" impact and critiques how both political tribes' technology fears may handicap America's competitiveness against China.
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📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess
🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse
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SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | SQUAD
Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.
Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.
--
X / TWITTER:
@noahpinion
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
--
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION:
Main Argument
Myth: Globalization hollowed out America's middle class
Reality: Middle class moved UP income brackets; wages grew 40% during peak globalization
Real Causes
1973 oil shock caused wage stagnation (70s-80s), not globalization
China shock (2000s): Only 2M manufacturing jobs lost, limited scope
America vs. China
US: Less globalized than most countries; only 4% manufacturing trade deficit
China: Cities will look shabby in 30 years; exports falling as % of GDP
Political Technology Paralysis
Republicans: Fear hardware (solar, batteries, EVs)
Progressives: Fear software (AI, social media)
Both sides handicapping American tech leadership while China advances
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54:31
What If Rome Had Industrialized? | Samo Burja
Today on Moment of Zen, Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja examine "failed" industrial revolutions throughout history, particularly Rome's sophisticated water-powered manufacturing, standardized production, and steam engine prototypes. The discussion explores how civilizations like Rome and Song Dynasty China achieved industrial-scale commerce and technology before ultimately plateauing or collapsing due to demographic, military, or economic constraints.
Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one:
Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/
Live Players: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers
--
📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess
🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse
--
SPONSORS: NETSUITE | SHOPIFY | ADQUICK | SQUAD
Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/zen.
Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.
--
X / TWITTER:
@SamoBurja
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
--
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION:
Roman Industrial Capabilities:
Extensive use of water power for mills, ironworks, marble cutting, and mining
Mass production of pottery (53 million amphora estimated from one Roman hill)
Standardized parts for statues, military equipment, and containers
Advanced metallurgy producing air pollution detectable in Greenland ice cores
Technological Sophistication:
Hero of Alexandria created functional steam engines as early experiments
Romans used coal for heating and had portable fire pumps
Nanotechnology in glassware (Lycurgus Cup with gold/silver particles)
Complex mechanical devices and automated systems
Economic Scale:
Billion+ amphora production across the empire
Sophisticated consumer economy with middle class purchasing power
Standardized commerce and shipping networks across Mediterranean
Industrial-scale mining that reshaped entire landscapes
Why They "Failed":
Population decline removed growth incentive
Military pressures from external forces
Reached saturation point where demand was met
Industrial revolutions follow S-curves that plateau without continued expansion
Broader Pattern:
Song Dynasty China faced similar trajectory before nomadic conquests
Large-scale commerce and state demand were prerequisites
Water transportation networks enabled industrial development
All required demographic/geographic growth to sustain technological advancement
Every week, Erik Torenberg, Dan Romero, Antonio Garcia Martinez and frequent special guests discuss what's happening in technology, business, politics, and beyond.
Moment of Zen is part of the Turpentine podcast network. Learn more: turpentine.co