It’s halftime at a basketball game. A kid nervously steps onto center court. If he can score a basket from center court, he’ll take home the prize money. He tells the announcer that he plays on his elementary school team and that he has been practicing for this moment. The crowd holds their breath as the ball sails through the air, hits the backboard … and goes in. The stadium erupts in excitement. Could he be the next Michael Jordan? In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we look at how extraordinary performances can mislead people about future results.Sports Illustrated has featured some of the world’s fastest-rising stars and sporting talents since 1954. Getting on the cover was a career highlight for many and a milestone to greater things. But being featured on the cover also seemed to lead to misfortune. Many athletes suffered dramatic dips in performance after their cover was published. The phenomenon was dubbed the "Sports Illustrated cover jinx." It seemed that no one—from high school baseball prodigies to one of the greatest athletes of all time, Serena Williams, was safe. Former Sports Illustrated editor Albert Chen recounts some of the more memorable examples of athletes who fell victim to the jinx. Then he takes us behind the scenes at the magazine and reveals what he thinks is behind the curse.Albert Chen is a writer and podcaster and formerly a senior editor at Sports Illustrated. He's also the author of the book Billion Dollar Fantasy.Next, Katy speaks with Elizabeth Tipton, an expert on regression to the mean, about how outlying data points can hide the true measure of something.Elizabeth Tipton is an associate professor of statistics and data science at Northwestern University.Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. If you enjoy the show, please leave a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresAll expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Investing involves risk including loss of principal.All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. The book How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content.(0923-30Z6)

Why do ocean waves move the way they do? How does a toaster work? How might ink flow through a ballpoint pen without the help of gravity? You may know the answer to these questions, but explaining them in detail could reveal an unexpected truth.In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we look at why people think they understand things better than they actually do.The idea started at the dinner table. One of A.J. Jacobs’ kids presented him with a seemingly simple task—thank the people who made his cup of coffee. A.J. took this task to heart and ended up visiting dozens of complex operations around the world, running into surprises at each destination.A.J. Jacobs is a journalist, lecturer, and human guinea pig. He is the author of Thanks A Thousand: A Gratitude Journey, about his journey to better appreciate coffee.         Next, Katy speaks with Steven Sloman about his research on the illusion of explanatory depth—the idea that people think they have more knowledge than they do because it’s easy to mistake community knowledge for your own. You can read more in Steven and Philip Fernbach’s book, called The Knowledge Illusion: Why We Never Think Alone. Steven Sloman is a professor of cognitive, linguistic, and psychological sciences at Brown University. Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. If you enjoy the show, please leave a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresAll expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Investing involves risk including loss of principal.Short selling is an advanced trading strategy involving potentially unlimited risks, and must be done in a margin account. Margin trading increases your level of market risk. For more information please refer to your account agreement and the Margin Risk Disclosure Statement.All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.The book How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content.(0923-3X4J)

What is the difference between buying groceries for the whole week versus grabbing something to eat on the way home each day? Grouping choices together so that you make a bunch of selections all at once can seem daunting, but it can actually help you reach your goals faster.In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we look at how taking a bird's eye view on a series of selections can help create better results overall.Most sports teams take years to establish themselves as contenders. But sometimes, a brand-new team is able to use its inception—a one-time opportunity to build something up from scratch—to its advantage. Las Vegas finally got its first professional sports team in 2017 with an NHL team called the Golden Knights. The initial reaction to the team’s roster was muted at best. The players they chose were drafted from teams that did not want them. But a surprising playoff run in the team’s first year hinted at what was yet to come for the newcomers, dubbed the "Golden Misfits."Gary Lawless recounts the underdog story that shocked the hockey world.Gary Lawless is a hockey writer working for the 2023 Stanley Cup winners, the Vegas Golden Knights. He is also the author of Vegas Golden Knights 2023 Stanley Cup Champions Book: "It Hurts to Win."Next, Katy speaks with Erika Kirgios about research that shows how wider versus narrower choice "brackets" can affect selection decisions. You can read more in the paper Erika co-authored with Katy and others, called The Isolated Choice Effect and Its Implications for Gender Diversity in Organizations.Erika Kirgios is an assistant professor in the behavioral science department at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Erika is a former PhD student of Katy's at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business.Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit schwab.com/podcast.If you enjoy the show, please leave a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresAll expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Investing involves risk including loss of principal.Diversification strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. The book How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content.(0823-3XFF)

Scientifically sound, randomized experiments can be expensive and difficult to run. But there’s an alternative: It turns out that certain real-life situations can also generate useful scientific data. The trick is finding them.In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we look at how events outside of our control can create opportunities for so-called natural or accidental experiments. The organizers of a heroic airlift transporting thousands of Ethiopian Jews to Israel broke the record for the flight with the most passengers. It was 1994, and the clock was ticking for Israeli intelligence personnel and leaders of the Ethiopian Jewish community as they worked to transport as many people as possible before the civil war closed in on Addis Ababa. This desperate effort, dubbed Operation Solomon, would change the lives of the Ethiopian Jews in surprising and unintended ways. Stephen Spector is a professor of religions and culture and medieval English at Stony Brook University. He's also the author of Operation Solomon: The Daring Rescue of the Ethiopian Jews.Solomon Ezra is an active member of the Ethiopian and Jewish communities in Portland, Oregon, and was a ground operations leader during Operation Solomon. Donna Rosenthal is the author of The Israelis: Ordinary People in an Extraordinary Land.Next, Katy speaks with Steven Levitt about how to spot natural experiments and why they can provide such unique information about human behavior.Steven Levitt is the William B. Ogden Distinguished Service Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago, co-author of the bestselling book Freakonomics, and the host of a Freakonomics Radio podcast called People I Mostly Admire.Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit schwab.com/podcast.If you enjoy the show, please leave a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important DisclosuresAll expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.​Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable source. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed and Charles Schwab & Co. expressly disclaims any liability, including incidental or consequential damages, arising from errors or omissions in this publication. The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.The book, How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be, is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content.(0823-30U5) 

There are moments in life where it seems as though everything is riding on one important decision. If only we had a crystal ball to see the future, we could make those decisions with greater confidence. Fortune-telling aside, there are actually methods to improve our predictions—and our decisions.In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we look at what makes some people “superforecasters.” In 2010, the United States government had been looking for Al Qaeda leader and perpetrator of the 9/11 attacks, Osama bin Laden, for nearly a decade. Years of intelligence gathering all over the world had come up short. It seemed every new tip was a dead end. But one small group of CIA analysts uncovered a tantalizing clue that led them to a compound in Pakistan. Soon, the president of the United States would be faced with a difficult choice: to approve the top-secret mission or not.We will hear this story from two perspectives. Peter Bergen is a national security commentator and author of the book The Rise and Fall of Osama bin Laden. He interviewed Osama bin Laden in 1997.Former CIA director Leon Panetta led the United States government’s hunt for bin Laden and describes the night his mission came to a dramatic conclusion.Next, Katy speaks with Barbara Mellers about research that shows how so-called superforecasters make more accurate predictions despite facing uncertainty and conflicting information. You can read more in the paper titled "Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions."Barabara Mellers is the I. George Heyman University Professor of both marketing at the Wharton School and of psychology at the School of Arts and Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania. Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit schwab.com/podcast.If you enjoy the show, please leave a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important DisclosuresAll expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.All corporate names are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.The book, How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be, is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.(0623-3UG1)