Optimist Economy

Nobody has more riding on any changes to Social Security than people under 40. The trust fund is currently projected to run dry in the fourth quarter of 2032, but it could be sooner. Every election, starting in November, selects the lawmakers who will shape the program’s future. Neglecting to fix its finances will mean an automatic 22% cut to everyone's benefit. But for Millennials and Zoomers, what’s at stake isn't your elders’ monthly check — it’s the only life insurance, disability insurance, and old-age poverty insurance guaranteed to follow you through every job you'll ever have.

Chapters:
1:21 Announcements — Unbleeped feed, subscribe reminders.
2:23 Retcon — Seed OK savings accounts follow-up.
4:36 Terms & Conditions — Social insurance vs. private insurance.
8:42 Big Pilcrow — Under 40? Time to tune in to the Social Security debate.
11:51 Youth Skepticism — Why young people have always doubted Social Security, and how that's politically exploited.
16:56 OBBA Impact — How the One Big Beautiful Bill Act cut Social Security's revenue.
18:37 Immigration Trends — Deportations and lower immigration also hurt.
21:11 Elections Have Begun — Social Security as a live political battleground.
22:35 First Beneficiaries — What studies of early recipients tell us.
30:36 Otherwise Uninsurable Risks — Death, disability, savings, longevity, inflation.
33:17 Paid Family Leave — Could Social Security's model extend to paid leave?
34:21 Claim Ownership — Youth should own this program.
37:08 Cuts by Geography — Rural states will get hit hardest if cuts come.
38:27 Executive Orders — Casting ages, cosmetic disclosure.
40:22 Spiritual Sponsors — World Cup, Jeopardy! triumph.

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(Originally aired 6/24/2025) One in five workers in the United States was born in another country. Without them, the country’s prime-age workforce would be shrinking, and thus so would our economy. So the calumny (Terms & Conditions) directed at immigrants is at odds with the basic fact that the U.S. needs them. What about depressing wages? Research finds such a mixed bag of results that the overall effect is about zero. Indeed, if the goal is to save “American jobs” or help American workers, there are a lot more effective ways to spend $185 billion than on a massive crackdown on immigration rules.

Chapters:
00:02:34  Announcements
00:05:55  Retcon
00:10:43  Terms & Conditions 
00:12:21  Big Pilcrow
00:43:07  Executive Orders
00:49:12  Spiritual Sponsors

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It’s the United States’ semiquincentennial … and one of us is not feeling it. The other is literally carrying a flag in her bag — and that’s just her road flag. Kathryn Anne Edwards makes her case for optimism right now: The U.S. is undergoing one of the most dramatic demographic and cultural shifts of any industrialized nation. Americans agree that Congress is broken. And the people's agenda on wages, childcare, money in politics, and Social Security polls above 80%. Maybe this isn’t a backslide. It's just what clearing the air looks like.

Chapters:
00:01:21 Announcements
00:04:10 Retcon: More on the national anthem
00:06:36 Terms & Conditions: Origin of "the melting pot"
00:08:01 Big Pilcrow: Make Robin Optimistic about America
00:48:17 Executive Orders: End gerrymandering; mandatory hearings on supermajority issues
00:50:03 Spiritual Sponsors: Knicks celebrations; bourbon in Louisville

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We can’t give financial advice. Or feedback on your 20-page tax proposal. But economist Kathryn Edwards did take a run at nearly 20 listener questions in under 60 minutes. Among them: Why care about birth rates if robots are taking all the jobs? What happens if the AI bubble bursts? Will the dollar collapse? Can the bond market sway the White House? Plus: Why the minimum wage matters even if it doesn’t alleviate most poverty and how to argue for universal free school lunch. 

Chapters:
1:43 — AI & birth rates
2:57 — AI & birth rates (cont.)
5:43 — AI bubble burst
8:11 — The experience of inflation
11:20 — Minimum wage & poverty
13:55 — Job loss after 50
17:30 — Productivity squeeze
21:00 — CEO pay ratio cap
21:49 — Could the dollar collapse?
26:59 — Bonds & the Fed
28:35 — Debt ceiling fix
31:12 — Trump Accounts vs 401k
34:42 — Tax dollar waste myth
36:46 — Universal school meals
40:11 — Part-time for new parents
42:28 — Fighting monopolies
44:14 — Policy ideas for Texas
47:34 — Mamdani goes federal?
50:43 — Top 1% wealth myth

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This might be the most dangerous economic assertion circulating today: the high inflation from 2021-2023 was caused by government stimulus. The talking point on the right goes: the third COVID-era stimulus checks landed in March 2021, prices took off, case closed. Of course reality is more nuanced. And most serious estimates pin only a point or two of the inflation peak on the bill; the rest was supply chain chaos, a global chip shortage, and the Ukraine war. The pandemic caused the worst job loss on record — and the response produced the fastest labor-market recovery we've ever had, because policymakers went big. The danger is that they remember the inflation and forget the recovery.
Chapters:
00:01:14 Announcements
00:03:24  Retcon: Q1 GDP Revised 
00:04:50 Terms & Conditions: Output Gap, NAIRU, "The Long Depression"
00:11:49  Big Pilcrow: Is Recession Recovery Getting Blamed for Inflation?
00:42:14  Executive Orders: Parallel parking licenses, FIFA ticketing ban
00:45:52  Spiritual Sponsors: Small hardware stores, handwritten letter to OE

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