Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Neil Dutta is Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro Research (renMac). He leads their macroeconomic research efforts, with an emphasis on analysing the US economy, the Federal Reserve, global trends, and cross-market investment themes. He is considered a market economist, looking at the economic data and trying to highlight the risks to the consensus as he sees them. 

Prior to RenMac, Neil spent seven years at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. There, he was a Senior Economist covering both the United States and Canada. In this podcast, we discuss:
Neil's Wall Street "Origin Story"
The Four Pillars of Economic Analysis
The Real Income Squeeze
AI, RSUs, and State Tax Revenues
Pervasive Optimism and Reflexivity Risk
The Fed's "Path of Least Resistance"
The Warsh Nomination and Forward Guidance
Productivity Boom or Demand Story?
AI's Wealth Effect Beyond Accounting
The 2027 Fiscal Headwind
Substack vs. Institutional Research

Dr. Dirk Willer is a Managing Director and Global Head of Macro and Asset Allocation at Citi Research in New York. Prior to this role, Dirk headed global Emerging Market Strategy, where he and his teams were consistently ranked in the top three in the institutional investor surveys. Previously, Dirk worked at Omega Advisors and RHG Capital as a global macro strategist and portfolio manager, and at Swiss Bank as a fixed income strategist for Russia and Eastern Europe. Dirk holds a PhD and MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics. Dirk is also the author of an influential book on how to trade emerging market fixed income, published by Wiley in 2020, and of a book on global macro trading, released in 2026. In this podcast, we discuss:
Unlearning the QE Reflex
Trading "Close to the Fire"
The Nearest Neighbour Regime Framework
PMIs vs. "Noisy" Indicators
Yield Curve Inversions and Fed Lags
The "GMO" Bubble Methodology
Credit as the Equity Canary
The Four-Indicator Dollar Model
Fading Geopolitical Shocks
The Role of Human Judgment in AI

Dylan is the founder of arcMacro, where he analyses macro and private markets. His previous roles include serving as an economist at Goldman Sachs and Rosenberg Research, and later as a private market consultant at McKinsey. In this podcast, we discuss:
The Hormuz Supply Shock
Stagflation as the New Base Case
AI Capex vs. Energy Headwinds
A Hawkish Fed Outlook
Canada's Productivity Pivot
The USMCA Trade Cloud
Private Market Maturation
Normalising Credit Defaults
AI's Private Market Future

Shawn Edwards is Bloomberg's Chief Technology Officer. Based in New York, he oversees the development of Bloomberg's global technology strategy. In 2017, Shawn was named in the top ten of the Institutional Investor Tech 40 – an annual ranking of financial industry technology leaders. Prior to joining Bloomberg in 2003, Shawn worked for Bear Stearns & Co., where he was a managing director in the company's fixed income trading group. He has also held positions at Mentor Graphics and IBM. In this podcast, we discuss:
Engineering Trust through "Entailment"
Automating "The Bloomberg Way"
ASKB: Reimagining the Terminal
Workflow-Specific AI Expansion
Actionable Alternative Data
Empowering Non-Programmers
Accelerating Data Onboarding
Competition vs. Domain Knowledge
A Cautious View on AGI

Andrew Perry is the creator of Macro Pillars, a macro research product servicing a bespoke selection of global banks, hedge funds, and sophisticated investors. He has over 35+ years of experience in markets, including as a Portfolio Manager at Tudor Investment Corporation under Paul Tudor Jones, and later as a Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Nomura. In this podcast, we discuss:
The Five Pillars of Global Macro
The Move Index: The Ultimate Indicator
Non-Traditional Liquidity and Market Plumbing
Australia's "Lucky Country" Crisis
From Supply Shock to Demand Shock
The Significance of "Critical Dates"
Risk Management and Emotional Resilience
US Equity Outperformance and Policy Makers