Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank. He was educated at Oxford University and lives in the US. In the podcast, we talk about:
The Oil Price Shock and "Negative Supply Curve" Impact 
US Economic Stagnation and Population Seismic Shift
AI as a Short-Term Inflationary Impulse
The Fed's Potential Hawkish Pivot
European and Japanese Central Bank Outlooks
China's Resilience and the "Thucydides Trap"
Market Rotations and the "Safe Asset" Shift
US Midterms and Trade Tensions

Nader is Argus' Middle East editor, based in Dubai. Argus is a leading independent provider of global energy and commodity market intelligence. Nader has more than 15 years of experience covering oil and gas in the region, and today heads up the company's Middle East and OPEC coverage. Prior to moving to Argus in 2015, Nader spent five years with the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) weekly in Cyprus. In this podcast, we discuss:
Fragmented GCC Stances
Iran's Hormuz "Stranglehold"
The "Zero Enrichment" Stalemate
The Hormuz Transit Toll
US Naval Blockade Tactics
Downstream Infrastructure Damage
Returning Shut-in Production
Bypassing the Strait

Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank. In this podcast, we discuss:
The Billion-Barrel Supply Gap
Physical Insurance and Pipelines
The "Toll Booth" Strait
Sanctions as a Safety Valve
Wealth vs. Shortages
China's Strategic Resilience
The "Unilateral Taco" Scenario
Long-Term Energy Optionality

Richard Schimel is the Co-Founder and Co-CIO of Cinctive Capital Management – a leading multi-strategy alternative asset manager. Rich has over 30 years of experience in the investment management industry.  Prior to Cinctive, Rich was Head of Aptigon Capital, a division of Citadel, where he served on the firm's Portfolio Committee. Before that, Rich founded and served as the CIO of Sterling Ridge Capital. Earlier in his career, Rich co-founded Diamondback Capital, where he co-managed the firm as well as portions of the firm's overall investment strategy. Before Diamondback, Rich began his buy-side career at SAC Capital, where he was a portfolio manager. In this podcast, we will discuss:
The "Sweet Spot" for Alpha 
Silos vs. Collaborative Culture 
Protecting the Left Tail
AI Beyond Tech: The Power Theme
The Pendulum Swing to Hedge Funds
Middle East: The New Financial Hub
The "Pattern Recognition" of Talent  
Fed and Sector Outlook

Dr. Tyler Goodspeed chaired the White House Council of Economic Advisers from 202-21. During his tenure on the council, he also chaired the Economic Policy Committee at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
From 2021 through 2023, Tyler was a Director and Chief Economist at Greenmantle, a New York and London-based macroeconomic and geopolitical consulting firm. The author of four books on economic history, Tyler holds a PhD in economics from Cambridge University and a PhD in history from Harvard University,
He is currently a Senior Fellow at the Adam Smith Institute in London and a member of the Geoeconomic Council of Advisers at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.  

All views are his own and not any of the organisations he is affiliated with. 

In this podcast, we discuss:
The "Boom-Bust" Myth 
Recessions as "Apophonies"
Expansions Do Not Die of Old Age
Policy Hubris
The 1785 Structural Break
Supply Shocks as Choke Points
Misnaming the 2001 Recession
The 2008 Energy and Mortgage Intersection
Impairment of Creative Destruction
Fidelity to Long-Run Trends