Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Marvin Barth is the creator of Thematic Markets and Seriously, Marvin?!. Thematic Markets is rigorous, institutional-quality research aimed at market professionals, while Seriously, Marvin?! presents more accessible takes on contrarian musings Marvin doesn't have time to research at Thematic Markets. Both publications benefit from the uniquely broad perspective on the global political economy Marvin has gained from a three-decade career spanning nearly every asset class, academia, central banking, finance ministry, and international institutions. This includes working at Barclays Investment Bank, Citi, the Federal Reserve Board, the U.S. Treasury Department, and the Bank for International Settlements. 
The Localisation Thesis
Manufacturing vs. The AI "Bubble"
The Labour Disconnect (Poetry vs. Welding)
Trump 2.0: Preparedness and Instincts
The Iran War and American Exceptionalism
The Fed's "Neutral Rate" Error
The Rise of Kevin Warsh
The Brexit Reality Check
Andy Burnham: The "Low Delta Call Option"

Dr Clarida is a managing director and global economic advisor at PIMCO. Prior to rejoining PIMCO in 2022, he was the firm's global strategic advisor from 2006 to 2018. He served as Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the U.S. Federal Reserve System from September 2018 to January 2022. Richard is also Professor of Economics and International Affairs at Columbia University. Before joining PIMCO in 2006, he was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy, in which he served as chief economic advisor to two U.S. Treasury Secretaries. Earlier in his career, he was with Credit Suisse and Grossman Asset Management. He has 26 years of investment experience and holds a PhD and a master's degree in economics from Harvard University. He received an undergraduate degree with Bronze Tablet Honors from the University of Illinois. In this podcast, we discuss:
Clarida's Macro Origin Story
Global Economic Resilience
The AI Capex Boom
Labour's Declining Income Share
The "Warsh Fed" Doctrine
Revisiting Forward Guidance
AI's Impact on Productivity and R-star
The Era of Global Fragmentation
Optimism for the Next Generation 

You can follow Richard on LinkedIn as well as the PIMCO website.

Brendan Greeley has spent twenty years as a journalist, covering economic and monetary policy. He was the US economics editor at the Financial Times and continues to write a regular column there. Before that, he was a staff writer for Bloomberg Businessweek and The Economist, as well as an anchor and correspondent for Bloomberg TV. He has also written for The New York Times, The New York Times Magazine, and The Wall Street Journal Europe, and received a New York Press Club Award for special event reporting. Brendan graduated from Tulane University with honours in German. He is currently completing a PhD in financial history at Princeton University. In this podcast, we discuss:
The "Ancient Dollar's" Bohemian Roots
Skepticism of Monetary Sovereignty
The Constitutional Shift to Private Banking
Nationalising Money via the Civil War
The Primacy of Federal Deposit Insurance
Endogenous Money: How Banks Create the Dollar
The Rise of the Offshore Eurodollar Market
Stablecoins as "Schmanks" (Unregulated Banks)
Career Longevity and the "Turn-Taking" Marriage

Matsuoka-San is the Chief Economist of SBI Securities in Japan. Before that, he was the Chief Economist for Japan at Deutsche Bank. Overall, he has been involved in macroeconomic analysis at research institutions and financial institutions for the past 30 years. He is known to be one of the leading Japan economists with unique insights on structural issues. Over the years, he has been highly ranked in numerous surveys, including the Institutional Investor survey. In this podcast, we discuss:
The "Inconvenient Mix" of Inflation
Japan's Real Neutral Interest Rate
The Case for Nominal GDP Targeting
Consumption Tax: Regressive Relief?
Wage Growth Divergence
The Working Hours Trap
Fiscal Dominance and Vulnerability
The Enigma of Yen Weakness
Work-from-Home and Birth Rates
Erosion of the US Dollar's Premium
The AI/Semiconductor "Vertical Jump"
US vs. Japan: Labour Participation Trends

Stefan Jansen is the founder and CEO of Applied AI. He advises Fortune 500 companies, investment firms, and startups across industries on data & AI strategy, building data science teams, and developing end-to-end machine learning solutions. 

Before his current venture, he was a partner and managing director at an international investment firm, where he built the predictive analytics and investment research practice. He was also a senior executive at a global fintech company with operations in 15 markets, advised Central Banks in emerging markets, and consulted for the World Bank. In this podcast, we discuss:
Defining AI as a Moving Target
The Trading vs. Business Data Science Divide
Synthetic Data and the "Fat Tail" Challenge
Shapley Values: Turning Black Boxes Grey
Agentic AI and Unstructured Data
RAG, Provenance, and the Context Window Debate
The "Alpha Factory" Workflow
Reinforcement Learning (RL) for Execution, Not Prediction
The Critical Role of Human Context
Advice for the AI-Native Job Market