Excess Returns

In this episode of The OPEX Effect, Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba break down the market structure impact of the SpaceX IPO, options expiration, dealer gamma, volatility, and the next major setup for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. They discuss why SpaceX may trade more on flows than fundamentals, how call buying could create a gamma squeeze, and why June OPEX, VIX expiration, FOMC, oil, Iran headlines, and index inclusion could all collide at once.
Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Spotify⁠⁠
⁠⁠Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Apple Podcasts
Topics covered:
Why SpaceX is a flows game at the start of trading

How the SpaceX IPO could affect liquidity across mega cap tech stocks

Why fundamentals may not matter when index flows and forced buying dominate

The role of Nasdaq, Russell, and S&P 500 index decisions in SpaceX trading

How options could create a gamma squeeze in SpaceX

Why dealer hedging flows can push stocks higher or lower

What June options expiration could mean for the S&P 500

Why VIX expiration and FOMC create a key market window

How Core1M signaled the recent volatility spasm

Why expensive calls, not put buying, drove the recent market stress

The key S&P 500 levels Brent is watching into OPEX

How oil, rates, inflation, and Fed policy could affect market volatility

Why Nasdaq options pricing is diverging from the S&P 500

How SpaceX index inclusion could widen the gap between Nasdaq and the S&P

What would make Brent add protection or look for another short-term market correction

Timestamps:
00:00 Opening clips and the SpaceX flow setup
05:27 Elon Musk net worth after the SpaceX IPO
07:13 SpaceX, liquidity, Mag Seven selling, and index demand
12:48 Why SpaceX may trade on flows before fundamentals
17:59 What options trading could change for SpaceX
22:05 How call buying can create a gamma squeeze
28:24 Why June OPEX matters more than a normal expiration
33:55 VIX expiration, FOMC, and market path dependency
37:20 The Core1M signal and the recent volatility spasm
41:22 The S&P 500 gamma map and key risk levels
46:25 Why expensive calls drove the market stress
50:14 Oil, rates, inflation, and the Fed setup
57:03 The JPMorgan collar and the 6900 to 7000 support zone
58:32 Nasdaq versus S&P 500 after the SpaceX IPO
01:03:14 Brent’s summary, SpaceX gamma squeeze risk, and the next market setup

Mike Green joins Excess Returns to explain why passive investing, index construction, SpaceX, AI IPOs and mega-cap concentration may be changing how the stock market actually works. We discuss how passive flows can affect prices, why AI earnings may be more circular than investors think, what could break the current market narrative, and why the economy feels much weaker for many households than the headline data suggests.
Michael Green Twitter
https://x.com/profplum99
Simplify Asset Management
https://www.simplify.us/
Topics covered:
Why the SpaceX IPO has turned passive investing into a mainstream market structure debate

How index committees and passive flows can influence individual stocks

Why low float, Nasdaq demand and passive buying could create unusual IPO dynamics

How new AI-related equity issuance could change the supply-demand balance in the stock market

The research behind passive flows, market impact and cap-weight concentration

Why Mike thinks passive buying explains more of mega-cap outperformance than AI fundamentals

The circular financing risk in AI, including Nvidia, CoreWeave, Google and Anthropic

Why buy-the-dip flows, ETFs, CTAs and vol control funds matter for market direction

How headline economic data can miss household stress, second jobs and lost purchasing power

What Mike is watching to see whether the AI trade and market narrative are starting to break

Why AI may be hugely valuable to consumers before it creates major business productivity gains

How companies may eventually redesign business models around AI rather than simply automate tasks

Why SpaceX wealth creation could seed the next generation of competitors

How inflation, gasoline prices, low savings and a K-shaped economy are affecting consumers

Timestamps:
00:00 Passive indices, AI profits and why this market feels different
04:07 Why SpaceX changed the passive investing debate
08:01 The research behind passive flows and market impact
12:16 Why Mike thinks passive flows explain mega-cap strength
16:18 ETF flows, buy-the-dip behavior and bubble dynamics
20:28 Why economic data can miss household stress
25:13 Bubble warnings, CAPE and what investors may be ignoring
29:17 AI as a consumer advice engine versus a productivity revolution
33:29 How businesses may redesign themselves around AI
37:51 Why IPO wealth may create the next generation of competitors
42:06 Mike Green’s upcoming book on passive investing and market structure

AI could become the next general purpose technology, reshaping economic growth, inflation, interest rates and portfolio construction. Vanguard Global Chief Economist Joe Davis joins Excess Returns to explain why AI, demographics, fiscal deficits and globalization may define the next decade for investors, and why the biggest market winners may eventually come from outside the technology sector.
Coming into View: How AI and Other Megatrends Will Shape Your Investmentshttps://amzn.to/4v8L7OfVanguard Megatrends Research Hubhttps://explore.vanguard.com/megatrends.html
Topics Covered:
AI as a potential general purpose technology
Why long-term megatrends can affect short-term market returns
The four forces shaping the next decade: technology, demographics, deficits and globalization
Why Vanguard believes AI could lift U.S. growth above consensus
How AI could offset aging demographics and rising debt
Why great technology cycles often include major stock market drawdowns
The difference between AI automation, augmentation and new industry creation
Why the next AI winners may be in healthcare, financial services and other service industries
The risk that AI disappoints and fiscal deficits dominate the outlook
How tariffs, oil prices and AI investment interact in the macro outlook
What AI could mean for 60/40 portfolios, value stocks, fixed income and international markets
Joe Davis’ lesson for average investors: the power of compounding
Timestamps:
00:00 Why every great technology eventually faces a market drawdown
04:28 The four megatrends shaping the economy
08:56 How megatrends explain short-term S&P 500 moves
13:22 Why AI may be in the 1996 or 1997 stage
18:29 Where the next AI winners could emerge
21:44 AI, fiscal deficits and the danger of kicking the can
26:17 Why 2% growth and 2% inflation may be unlikely
30:31 How to tell if AI augmentation is really working
33:19 AI, globalization and which countries could benefit
38:14 Why investors need a multi-factor macro scorecard
41:23 What AI means for the 60/40 portfolio
44:12 Joe Davis on investing, compounding and Vanguard’s megatrends research

On the latest Click Beta, Matt Zeigler, Dave Nadig and Cameron Dawson discuss what could happen when SpaceX goes public and why this IPO may be as much a market structure problem as a valuation problem.
They break down the potential impact of a $1.75 trillion IPO, 100 times sales, a small free float, forced index buying, passive fund flows, options trading, bubble dynamics and what advisors should tell clients who want SpaceX exposure.
Subscribe to Click Beta on Spotify⁠
⁠Subscribe to Click Beta on Apple Podcasts
Dave Nadig
https://x.com/davenadig
Cameron Dawson
https://x.com/CameronDawson
Topics Covered:
Why the SpaceX IPO could create a chaotic first 30 days of trading

How 100 times sales, no earnings and a $1.75 trillion valuation change the discussion

Why pre-IPO access, lockups, fees and vehicle structure matter for investors

How Palantir and Tesla frame the debate over extreme growth stock valuations

Why SpaceX could create unusual supply and demand pressure in the public market

How options trading, Nasdaq 100 inclusion and accelerated index rules could affect price discovery

Why free float matters and how a 4 percent float could become a 12 percent index adjustment

How much passive demand might chase SpaceX shares after the IPO

What the bubble triangle says about technology, speculation, money and credit

Why real earnings do not disprove a technology-driven bubble

How liquidity, private credit gates, IPO supply and buybacks could shape the next phase of the market

Why advisors need to help clients think through sizing, exit plans and safe access

Peak season travel, TikTok monoculture, Ocean City, Coheed and Cambria, and the lost art of CDs and mixtapes

Timestamps:
00:00 Why the first 30 days could be chaotic
04:00 Why everyone is talking about the SpaceX IPO
09:23 The market structure problem behind SpaceX
13:00 Options trading, small indexes and forced buying
17:18 How much passive demand could chase SpaceX
21:27 Why real earnings do not disprove a bubble
25:43 Liquidity, IPO supply and why bubbles can keep going
29:13 What advisors tell clients who want SpaceX
33:17 Fake SPVs, scams and safe access
37:39 Ocean City, peak season and Jersey Shore memories
41:39 Coheed and Cambria opening for Shinedown
45:44 Summer concerts, Bikini Kill, Weezer and The Shins
46:25 Cleaning out old cars and rediscovering CDs
50:10 Old iPods, underwater MP3 players and forgotten playlists
53:20 Mixtapes, liner notes and physical music culture
55:08 Where to find Dave Nadig and Cameron Dawson

Jim Paulsen returns to Excess Returns to discuss why he is increasingly concerned about a meaningful stock market pullback, even though he does not expect a bear market. We cover the extreme divide between AI-driven “new era” stocks and the rest of the market, what oil and inflation could mean for the Fed, why tech earnings and market leadership have become so concentrated, and what investors should watch as the economy potentially shifts from inflation fears to growth fears.
Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify⁠⁠

⁠⁠Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple Podcasts

Jim Paulsen on X
https://x.com/jimwpaulsen
Paulsen Perspectives
https://paulsenperspectives.substack.com/
Topics Covered
Why Jim thinks the economy could weaken into the summer and fall

The risk of a sharp stock market pullback without a full bear market

How inflation, oil prices and geopolitical conflict are affecting the market

Why the Fed may face a difficult decision under Kevin Warsh

The extreme divide between new era tech stocks and old era stocks

Why AI and innovation need to benefit the broader economy to be sustainable

How tech earnings have become concentrated in only two S&P 500 sectors

Why small-cap tech and unprofitable tech leadership may be a warning sign

What past oil price peaks suggest about stock market corrections

Why investor focus may shift from inflation risk to growth risk

How this bull market has been driven by a series of booms in Mag 7, Bitcoin, gold, oil and AI

Timestamps
00:00 Why AI has to benefit more than the tech sector
05:18 Inflation, oil prices and the impact of geopolitical conflict
10:54 New era stocks versus old era stocks
15:43 Corporate cash, AI spending and pressure on tech investment
20:17 Policy tightening and why economic momentum may slow
25:31 Why AI must spread beyond the companies building it
31:42 Why this tech boom is different from the 1990s
36:51 Why market breadth keeps fading back into large-cap growth
42:06 Small-cap tech and unprofitable tech start leading
46:15 Why the damage from oil shocks often comes after oil peaks
50:15 How the market could shift from inflation fear to growth fear
54:40 The bull market of booms in Mag 7, Bitcoin, gold, oil and AI
59:46 Jim’s main takeaway for investors now
Follow the Excess Returns podcasts:
https://excessreturnspod.com/
Contact us:
excessreturnspod@gmail.com/
No information on this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed in the podcast may be holdings of the firms of the hosts or their clients.