Excess Returns

Kevin Muir of The MacroTourist joins Matt Zeigler to break down the bond market, Scott Bessent's Treasury buybacks, the Treasury General Account, AI-driven earnings growth, leveraged ETF risk, gold and the U.S.-Canada trade fight. Kevin explains why rising long-term yields may be less surprising than investors think, how the AI capex boom can inflate earnings before costs show up, and why leveraged ETFs and policy uncertainty could make markets more fragile.
Kevin Muir on X
https://x.com/kevinmuir
The MacroTourist
https://themacrotourist.com
Topics covered
Why stronger nominal GDP, large fiscal deficits and record corporate issuance are pressuring long-term Treasury yields

How Scott Bessent's Treasury liquidity buybacks work and why investors are comparing them with QE and Operation Twist

How replacing long-dated Treasuries with T-bills could ultimately force reserve management purchases by the Federal Reserve

Why the Treasury General Account matters for liquidity and why attempts to manage the yield curve can distort market signals

Jim Chanos's "earnings bubble" argument and how massive AI data-center capex can boost current earnings while costs are amortized

Why stock prices can fall before forward earnings estimates roll over, and why retail investors may have an advantage over institutions

How daily-reset leveraged ETFs create reflexive buying and selling and could amplify a semiconductor or single-stock selloff

Why Kevin is bullish on gold again, the role of People's Bank of China demand, and how he combines fundamentals with technical signals

Why platinum below production cost caught his attention and what rolling mini-bubbles in gold, silver and AI say about investor psychology

What 2025 U.S.-Canada trade data says about autos, oil and gas, manufacturing, tariffs and the economic cost of policy uncertainty

Timestamps
00:00 Intro
06:31 Scott Bessent's Treasury buybacks and the bond market
10:39 How T-bill issuance could lead to debt monetization
18:25 The AI capex boom and the "earnings bubble"
22:27 The giant bet embedded in accelerating AI earnings
27:37 Why leveraged ETFs are changing market structure
32:00 How forced ETF unwinds can amplify a selloff
36:41 Why Kevin is bullish on gold again
41:57 Platinum, production costs and the precious metals trade
46:08 Sentiment extremes and why popular trades get dangerous
51:00 Globalization, manufacturing and America's distribution problem
55:00 Why oil and gas dominate the U.S.-Canada trade deficit
59:00 How tariff uncertainty can deter U.S. manufacturing investment
01:03:10 The trade math Kevin wants investors to see
Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Dan Rasmussen, founder and managing partner of Verdad Advisers and author of The Humble Investor, joins Kai Wu to examine the unraveling of private equity, the rise of private credit, and how AI is reshaping software, labor, and the economics of technology investing. They also explore the massive AI CapEx boom, why value investing has struggled in the intangible-heavy U.S. market, the unusual opportunity in Japanese small caps, and how investors can quantify intangible value in biotech.
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Topics covered:
Why private equity became a consensus trade and why exits are now clogged

How leverage and high debt costs threaten private equity returns

What publicly traded private equity funds reveal about true volatility and NAV discounts

How private equity shifted from old-economy buyouts into software and healthcare technology

Why AI may have erased code as a software moat while strengthening other intangible advantages

How ARR lending helped private credit finance software buyouts and created an obsolescence mismatch

What AI is doing to hiring, junior roles, productivity and the composition of work

Why the AI CapEx boom may be a crowded, path-dependent overinvestment cycle

Why traditional value metrics work better in Japan than in the intangible-heavy U.S.

How Tokyo Stock Exchange reforms, buybacks and dividends can unlock value in Japanese small caps

How R&D spend, specialist ownership and short interest can help quantify biotech value

Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
04:03 Why private equity's debt burden changes the equity math
09:24 How private equity became a software momentum trade
13:29 Why code may no longer be a durable software moat
17:48 How private credit enabled software buyouts through ARR lending
23:56 AI productivity, jobs and why displacement is slower than expected
30:23 Why the AI CapEx boom may be the market's most crowded risk
34:29 Rational overinvestment, leverage and the timing risk in AI
38:46 Why consumers may capture more of AI's value than investors
44:07 Japan's below-book-value reform and the return of old-school value
51:03 Quantifying biotech value with R&D, specialist ownership and short interest
55:08 Dan's non-consensus views on private markets and Japan
Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Ian Cassel, founder of MicroCapClub and author of Stock Picker, joins Matt Zeigler to break down the mindset, temperament and core skills required to outperform as an active stock picker. They discuss microcap investing, position sizing, active patience, valuation, management quality, portfolio survival, benchmarking against the S&P 500 and how great investors evolve their edge over decades.
Stock Picker: How to Develop the Mindset, Temperament, and Strategy to Outperform Wall Street
https://amzn.to/4hU28ImTopics covered
How an investor's motivations change as ambition gives way to family, legacy and the scarcity of time

How Ian turned $20,000 into $120,000, then watched it fall to $8,000, and why that early win permanently shaped his risk tolerance

Ian's four-part survival framework: recession-resistant growth, strong balance sheets, conservative valuation and signs of intelligent fanaticism

Why balance-sheet strength is not just defensive and can let great companies act aggressively when competitors are forced to retreat

Why Ian targets roughly a 25 percent CAGR without relying on multiple expansion

The Judas goat lesson, talking your book on social media and why investors still have to do their own work

Why comparing short-term returns can corrupt an investing process and why Ian measures himself against the S&P 500 over a 10-year horizon

The five core stock-picking skills: identifying, analyzing, buying, selling and holding, plus why selling matters especially in microcaps

Why position sizing should account for initial excitement, and why Ian now starts much smaller than he did earlier in his career

Active patience, expanding your circle of competence and the difference between good, great and GOAT stock pickers

Why temperament evolves with experience, why leverage can destroy otherwise good investing, and why the best investors keep sharpening their edge

Why Ian is willing to back repeat-winner management teams before every piece of the business is fully in place

Timestamps
00:00 Intro
06:58 The $20,000 to $120,000 win and 90 percent loss
11:02 Ian Cassel's four-part survival framework
15:02 Why strong balance sheets create offensive optionality
19:03 The Judas goat and social media stock promotion
23:18 Why comparison is the enemy for stock pickers
29:39 The five core stock-picking skills
34:43 Active patience and knowing what you are looking for
39:28 Good, great and GOAT stock pickers
47:02 How investor temperament evolves over time
52:03 Leverage, situational awareness and surviving to compound
57:24 Betting on repeat-winner management before the numbers arrive
Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, joins us to explain why today's economy and stock market are increasingly defined by rotation, instability and a changing stock-bond relationship. We discuss AI capital spending and earnings concentration, Treasury yields and the deficit, immigration and labor supply, investor sentiment, market breadth, portfolio rebalancing, IPOs and the growing economic importance of the stock market wealth effect.
Topics covered:
Why the post-pandemic economy is moving through sector-level recessions and expansions instead of a traditional linear cycle

The return of a more temperamental market regime, inflation volatility and the changing correlation between stocks and bonds

Why volatility-based rebalancing may matter more than calendar-based rebalancing and why market leadership is broadening

Immigration, labor shortages and why slower population growth changes how investors should interpret payroll data

Federal deficits, entitlement spending, rising 30-year Treasury yields and why Treasury intervention cannot solve the underlying fundamentals

How the AI spending boom, imports and hyperscaler capital expenditures are affecting GDP, bond issuance and capital markets

Corporate profits versus labor compensation and why Liz Ann does not see an obvious near-term catalyst for convergence

Kevin Warsh, reduced Fed guidance and why less communication could create more market uncertainty

Attitudinal versus behavioral investor sentiment, the vibe session and why sentiment is becoming harder to use as a timing signal

The AI cascade beyond mega-cap tech, the Neural Nine, small caps and why rotation may be the new momentum trade

Margin debt, record household equity exposure and the risk that a future stock market decline feeds back into the economy

S&P 500 earnings concentration, sell-side versus buy-side expectations, AI depreciation risk and the return of a major IPO cycle

Timestamps:
00:00 Liz Ann Sonders on the unusual 2026 market and economic cycle
05:49 Portfolio construction, diversification and volatility-based rebalancing
11:39 Immigration, labor supply and the new payroll breakeven rate
17:38 Why long-term Treasury yields are rising and what the Treasury can and cannot fix
22:07 Corporate profits versus labor compensation as a share of GDP
27:37 Attitudinal versus behavioral sentiment and lessons from 2022
32:13 The vibe session, consumer confidence and conflicting investor expectations
37:14 The Neural Nine, widening stock dispersion and rotation as the new momentum
41:21 Margin debt, leveraged speculation and where the real risk may be
45:52 S&P 500 earnings growth, concentration and the sell-side versus buy-side gap
50:27 Hyperscaler AI capex, debt financing and signals from the corporate bond market
55:05 IPOs, FOMO and why investors should be careful about chasing new issues
60:05 Where to follow the real Liz Ann Sonders and avoid impersonator scams
Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Andy Constan is back on First Principles to explain why record stock prices, rising long-term Treasury yields and sticky inflation can all coexist, and why the next major market risk may come from the financing behind the AI CapEx boom rather than the eventual return on that investment. We discuss Kevin Warsh and Fed balance sheet policy, Treasury issuance and the quarterly refunding announcement, corporate bond and equity supply, Nvidia's $500 billion financing structure, and Andy's "not enough pie" framework for comparing AI earnings expectations with GDP and productivity growth.
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Topics covered
Why rising long-term interest rates can be consistent with strong economic growth and record stock prices

Why Andy does not see higher government interest costs creating an imminent U.S. debt crisis

The "script to kill inflation" and why reducing the wealth effect may require lower stock, bond and asset prices

How the Fed, Treasury and other policymakers have suppressed long-term interest rates and risk premiums

Why Kevin Warsh's comments about the Fed balance sheet and letting the bond market "do the work" could signal a policy shift

How Treasury bill issuance, coupon issuance and the quarterly refunding announcement can affect stocks, bonds and financial conditions

Why the AI CapEx boom is shifting from cash flow funding toward massive corporate debt and equity issuance

Andy's "hamburger thesis" and why the ability to finance AI infrastructure may matter before anyone knows the ultimate AI ROI

Why capital markets can suddenly close after issuance booms and what that could mean for the AI investment cycle

How Nvidia's $500 billion financing structure expands the pool of capital available to data center projects

The "not enough pie" problem: why projected corporate earnings may require extraordinary GDP growth, productivity gains or a larger corporate share of the economy

What Andy watches in new stock and bond deals for signs that investors are becoming unwilling to absorb more supply

Timestamps
00:00:08 Why stocks, long-term yields and inflation can all rise together
00:07:18 The "script to kill inflation" and why short-term rates may not be enough
00:12:48 How policymakers have suppressed long-term interest rates
00:16:53 The Warsh "drumbeat" and a possible shift in Fed balance sheet policy
00:21:56 Why markets may be underestimating Warsh's willingness to fight inflation
00:26:27 Treasury bills versus coupons and the limits of current financing policy
00:31:33 The "hamburger thesis" behind the massive AI CapEx funding shift
00:38:41 Why AI financing may matter more than AI ROI in the short run
00:42:55 Breaking down Nvidia's $500 billion data center financing structure
00:47:51 The "not enough pie" problem for AI earnings and economic growth
00:52:03 Demographics, productivity and the limits on future GDP growth
00:56:14 What issuance prices reveal about capital market stress
Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.