Excess Returns

• Most Never Escape Stage 3 | Rick Ferri on the Education of an Index Investor

  In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Rick Ferri, founder of Ferri Investment Solutions and host of the Bogleheads on Investing podcast. Rick shares timeless insights on the evolution of an investor’s education, the pitfalls of complexity, and how to build portfolios that are simple, low-cost, and behaviorally sustainable. The discussion covers how investors can think about macro forecasts, indexing, factors, international diversification, and the right withdrawal rates in retirement.Topics covered:Why macro forecasting rarely works as a long-term investment strategyThe four stages of the index investor’s education: darkness, enlightenment, complexity, and simplicityHow financial advisors and Wall Street profit from unnecessary complexityThe case for international diversification and how to size it correctlyThe pros and cons of factor investing and why behavioral discipline matters more than factors themselvesWhy passive investing isn’t “too big” and why indexing works over timeHow to think about valuations and investor psychologyTips, gold, and how to think about inflation protectionRethinking the 4% withdrawal rule and why goals for heirs matter more than formulasThe one piece of advice Rick would give to young investors todayTimestamps:00:00 Introduction and the four stages of an index investor03:00 Why macro forecasting fails as an investment tool07:00 The evolution from complexity to simplicity13:00 Complexity as job security for advisors18:00 Should investors own international stocks?23:00 The behavioral challenge of factor investing32:00 Is passive investing too big?34:00 What to do (and not do) with market valuations37:00 Managing investor behavior through small adjustments39:00 Inflation, TIPS, and the role of gold46:00 Why indexing works and what makes it unbeatable49:00 The 4% rule and smarter withdrawal strategies57:00 Advice for young investors and what Rick wants his legacy to be

  --------  

  1:01:59

  --------

  1:01:59
• Investing in a Liquidity Dominated Market | Remi Tetot

  In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler talks with macro strategist and author Remi Tetot, known as “The Mad King.” They explore how liquidity, policy, and narratives have reshaped markets over the last decade, why fundamentals have lost their grip, and how investors can adapt to a fractured global cycle. The conversation spans macro themes like fiscal dominance, housing, crypto, and AI — and ends with a deeper reflection on human capital, autonomy, and the behavioral side of markets.Topics covered:How liquidity replaced fundamentals as the market’s main driverWhy investors must adapt to desynchronized global cyclesThe impact of debt, fiscal dominance, and government policy on marketsHousing as the next driver of the business cycleHow AI, robotics, and quantum computing are shaping the next growth waveThe maturation of crypto and what comes after the “altcoin season”Why narratives now drive price and how to read them effectivelyThe risks and opportunities in trading liquidity and fiscal policyThe cognitive and behavioral shifts driving modern investingProtecting human capital in the age of AI and automationTimestamps:00:00 Liquidity and the end of fundamentals06:17 Three continents, three policies, one fractured world12:20 Housing as the next driver of the cycle16:39 Crypto’s evolution and fiscal dominance23:26 Portfolio positioning in a policy-driven market29:44 AI, human capital, and the risk to autonomy36:00 How narratives shape markets and investment themes52:00 Building a macro narrative and market framework58:00 Lessons for investors and closing thoughts

  --------  

  1:05:40

  --------

  1:05:40
• The 4% That Drive All Returns | Larry Swedroe on What You're Getting Wrong About the S&P 500

  In this episode of Excess Returns, Larry Swedroe returns to discuss the biggest risks and opportunities facing investors today. From tariffs and immigration to AI and private credit, Larry shares evidence-based insights on how to think about markets without relying on forecasts. He explains why diversification is essential, how investors can “sin a little” with duration and valuation, and why only 4% of stocks drive the equity risk premium. The conversation blends timeless investing wisdom with today’s most important macro themes.Main topics covered:Why forecasts don’t work and what investors should do insteadThe real economic risks of tariffs and immigration restrictionsHow AI may (or may not) impact productivity and market winnersHow to build anti-fragile portfolios around macro risksWhen and how to “sin a little” on bond duration and valuationLessons from past tech booms and investor overconfidenceThe 4% of stocks that drive all long-term equity returnsThe risks of concentration in the S&P 500Hidden costs of passive investing and large index fundsWhen index and factor funds get too big to trade efficientlyValue investing, interest rates, and inflation relationshipsThe evidence on simple value strategies like Piotroski and Magic FormulaHow to think about growth exposure using quality and low volatilityThe opportunities and dangers of private credit and interval fundsWhy illiquidity premiums exist and how to capture them prudentlyBehavioral discipline, diversification, and long-term compounding lessonsTimestamps:00:00 Forecasting failures and market humility03:30 Why Larry doesn’t make macro predictions07:00 The real impact of tariffs and immigration on inflation and growth11:00 AI, productivity, and the question of who the real winners will be14:40 How to manage duration risk and “sin a little”18:00 Investor overconfidence and lessons from past tech booms21:00 Why only 4% of stocks explain all equity returns24:00 Market concentration and S&P 500 risk28:30 Why diversification still matters30:00 The hidden trading costs of index and factor funds38:00 How big fund size changes execution and exposure41:00 Is passive investing too big?42:30 Value vs growth and interest rate relationships45:00 Evidence on simple value strategies and Buffett’s alpha51:00 Factor diversification and one-over-N strategy54:00 Private credit: opportunity and risks58:00 Illiquidity premiums and fund structure concerns01:00:00 Behavioral discipline, patience, and staying diversified

  --------  

  1:05:04

  --------

  1:05:04
• The Regime Change No One Sees | Adam Parker on Why Valuations Are Lying to You

  Adam Parker, founder and CEO of Trivariate and Trivector Research, joins Excess Returns to discuss how fundamental, quantitative, and macro perspectives intersect to shape markets today. Parker shares his long-term bullish case for U.S. equities, why traditional valuation signals no longer work, the biggest risks he sees for investors, and how AI, inflation, and market structure are reshaping opportunities and risks in real time.Main topics covered:Why combining fundamental, quantitative, and macro analysis gives a clearer view of marketsThe case for the S&P 500 reaching 10,000 by 2030Structural reasons why market multiples may stay higher for longerThe key bear cases: hyperscaler CapEx risk, fiscal deficits, and AI-driven unemploymentComparing today’s market to the dot-com eraWhy traditional recession indicators have failedHow COVID changed the economic cycle and business synchronizationInflation, tariffs, and what the Fed is really watchingWhy valuation is a broken signal for stock pickingThe quant factors that matter most todayETF factor exposures and hidden risksHow to think about the 60/40 portfolio, diversification, and private marketsWhy U.S. innovation and margins make it the dominant equity marketKey lessons and philosophies for long-term investorsTimestamps:00:00 What really drives equity investing03:00 Adam Parker’s background and multi-lens approach05:00 Why he’s long-term bullish and sees S&P 10,00008:00 Structural margin expansion and AI productivity09:00 The three major bear cases14:00 How today compares to the 1990s tech bubble18:00 Why the economy has stayed resilient20:00 COVID’s impact on business cycles23:00 Market structure, inventory, and margins24:00 Inflation, tariffs, and Fed outlook29:00 Deficits and why timing macro risks is hard32:00 Large vs small cap dynamics37:00 Why valuation doesn’t work41:00 Key quant factors to watch43:00 ETF grading and hidden exposures46:00 The 60/40 portfolio and asset allocation51:00 U.S. vs Europe and innovation advantage55:00 Lessons for investors and closing thoughts

  --------  

  58:48

  --------

  58:48
• The Bear Stearns Moment | Ben Hunt on How Private Credit Unravels

  Ben Hunt returns to Excess Returns to break down the hidden risks building inside private credit and the parallels between today’s “alternative asset managers” and the shadow banking system that triggered the 2008 financial crisis. Using the Godfather’s Tessio as a metaphor for betrayal and broken trust, Ben explains how opacity, leverage, and narrative collapse can turn small defaults into systemic crises. He and Matt Zeigler explore what’s really happening beneath the surface of private markets, how common knowledge shifts shape investor behavior, and how Perscient Pro’s “storyboards” and “semantic signatures” help track the narratives driving markets in real time.Main topics coveredWhy Ben believes we’re at a “trust-breaking” moment similar to 2007The Godfather analogy and what frauds reveal about human behaviorHow private credit has evolved into today’s “shadow banking” systemFlow machines, hidden leverage, and why opacity is intentionalThe dangers of informational asymmetry between investors and lendersHow broken trust creates chain reactions in financial systemsThe link between narrative collapse and liquidity crisesCommon knowledge, crowd reactions, and market psychologyDoom loops between Wall Street and the real economyHow Perscient Pro tracks financial narratives using semantic signaturesWhy gold’s current rally is about safety, not debasementWhat investors should monitor next in credit, housing, and macro narrativesTimestamps0:00 Hidden leverage and the trust problem1:04 Introduction to Ben Hunt and Epsilon Theory2:12 The Tessio analogy – betrayal and the structure of fraud6:10 How private credit became today’s shadow banking system10:55 Flow machines and why opacity is intentional14:48 Trust breaks and the “funding stops first” dynamic18:35 The Biden “common knowledge” moment explained21:00 What happens when narratives collapse24:26 Apollo, asymmetric information, and shorting First Brands28:00 Hidden leverage and the domino effects of default33:40 The “doom loop” between Wall Street and the real economy39:10 Why Silicon Valley Bank was different44:18 What a “run on Wall Street” could look like48:00 Perscient Pro and tracking financial storyboards53:32 Semantic signatures and narrative detection57:10 Housing, inflation, and gold storyboards1:00:48 Where to follow Ben Hunt and learn more about Perscient Pro

  --------  

  1:02:25

  --------

  1:02:25

Más podcasts de Economía y empresa

Podcasts a la moda de Economía y empresa

Acerca de Excess Returns

Excess Returns: Podcasts del grupo