Excess Returns

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Mike Green of Simplify Asset Management for a deep dive into how passive investing has reshaped market structure, altered price discovery, and created new sources of systemic risk beneath the surface of today’s equity markets. Mike explains why index funds are not as passive as most investors believe, how daily flows drive prices in increasingly inelastic markets, and why the growth of passive strategies may be pushing markets toward an unstable endpoint. The conversation also explores macro implications, AI-driven capital spending, demographic shifts, and what all of this means for investors navigating the years ahead.
Topics covered
How passive investing and ETF flows actively influence market prices

The inelastic market hypothesis and why markets absorb flows differently than investors expect

Why index funds no longer fit the classic definition of passive investing

The growing share of passive ownership and what happens as it continues to rise

Potential market instability and the theoretical limits of passive dominance

How demographics, retirement flows, and 401k defaults affect market structure

Critiques of arguments downplaying the impact of passive investing

Why large-cap concentration keeps increasing despite slowing fundamentals

Implications for active management, stock selection, and liquidity

The role of AI, capital expenditures, and energy constraints in the macro outlook

What rising electricity demand and infrastructure investment mean for the economy

Housing market distortions, demographics, and long-term structural challenges

Timestamps
00:00 Introduction and why passive investing is not truly passive
03:00 The inelastic market hypothesis explained
06:00 Daily flows, index funds, and price impact
08:20 How much of the market is now passive
11:40 What happens if passive investing keeps growing
14:20 Retirement flows and demographic effects on markets
19:00 Responding to critiques of passive market impact
23:00 Liquidity, concentration, and large-cap dominance
27:00 Why market cap does not equal liquidity
33:00 Active management under pressure
38:00 Current market conditions and early-year rotations
41:50 Economic growth, GDP, and underlying volatility
43:30 AI capex, overinvestment, and market incentives
47:00 Energy, electricity demand, and long-term constraints
52:40 Housing, demographics, and policy challenges

This episode of Excess Returns features Gene Munster and Doug Clinton breaking down their 2026 technology and market predictions, with a deep focus on artificial intelligence, big tech, and where investors may be misreading the current cycle. The conversation explores how far along the AI bull market really is, what fundamentals still support it, and where the biggest opportunities and risks may emerge over the next several years. Munster and Clinton discuss market structure, capital spending, valuation, and technological inflection points across AI, software, hardware, and autonomous driving, offering a grounded but forward-looking framework for long-term investors.
Main topics covered
Why the AI bull market may still have multiple years left and how fundamentals support current valuations

Nasdaq return expectations through 2026 and what earnings and multiples imply for investors

The case for small-cap and non–Mag Seven tech outperforming as the AI cycle matures

Hyperscaler AI capital spending and why CapEx growth could exceed current expectations

Whether AI pricing pressure leads to commoditization or expanding long-term value creation

How AI is changing the economics of infrastructure, platforms, and asset-heavy tech businesses

Apple’s AI strategy, the future of Siri, and why expectations matter for valuation

Alphabet, Amazon, and the evolving AI competition among the largest technology companies

Energy constraints, data centers, nuclear power, and the infrastructure needed to support AI growth

Tesla, Waymo, and the realistic timeline for autonomous driving and robotaxi adoption

How physical AI, autonomy, and robotics could reshape transportation and consumer behavior

Timestamps
00:00 AI cycle outlook and why the bull market may still be early
05:00 Nasdaq return expectations and earnings fundamentals
10:30 Small-cap tech versus Mag Seven performance
17:15 Hyperscaler AI CapEx and Nvidia’s signals
24:00 Infrastructure, pricing power, and AI commoditization debates
32:30 Apple, Siri, and consumer AI assistants
38:50 Alphabet, Amazon, and AI competition among mega-cap tech
45:00 Energy, data centers, and nuclear power considerations
48:10 Tesla, autonomy, and robotaxi timelines
54:15 Waymo, market share, and the future of transportation

In this episode of Excess Returns, Professor Aswath Damodaran joins Matt Zeigler and Kai Wu for a wide-ranging conversation on valuation, portfolio construction, and how investors should think about risk, discipline, and opportunity in a market shaped by AI, market concentration, and rising uncertainty. Damodaran walks through how he builds and manages his own portfolio, why price matters more than story or quality, and how AI-driven capital spending could reshape margins and returns across the economy. The discussion blends practical investing frameworks with big-picture market insights, offering a clear look at how a valuation-driven investor navigates today’s environment.
Main topics covered
• How Aswath Damodaran builds a stock portfolio, including diversification, position sizing, and turnover
• Why investing is about buying at the right price, not buying great companies
• Using valuation frameworks to invest in young, unprofitable, and fast-growing companies
• How stories and narratives fit into valuation without replacing financial discipline
• Watchlists, patience, and waiting for price rather than chasing popular stocks
• Sell discipline, overvaluation triggers, and avoiding emotional attachment to winners
• Using probability distributions and simulations instead of single-point estimates
• How company lifecycles affect growth, margins, and capital allocation decisions
• Why many companies struggle as they age and how management quality shows up late in the lifecycle
• AI as a capital cycle and why massive AI investment may lower margins overall
• Why AI is likely to create a bubble, even if it delivers long-term economic value
• Winners and losers in the AI value chain, from infrastructure to applications
• Risks from AI infrastructure spending, debt, and cross-ownership structures
• Why private markets may not deliver better outcomes for individual investors
• How Damodaran thinks about cash, diversification, and assets uncorrelated with equities
• Reentering markets after selling and avoiding the trap of staying in cash too long
• Time horizon, legacy investing, and managing wealth across generations
Timestamps
00:00 Investing is about price, valuation, and early thoughts on AI and market risk
01:54 Personal investing philosophy and why portfolios must be investor-specific
03:00 Diversification, number of holdings, and managing downside risk
05:00 Valuation frameworks and buying companies at the right price
06:00 Stories versus numbers and avoiding the circle of competence trap
08:20 Political risk and why some sectors are hard to value
08:47 Watchlists, patience, and waiting for price to meet value
11:43 When and why to sell stocks as a value investor
12:00 Using probability distributions and simulations in valuation
15:48 Sell discipline, fund flows, and separating skill from luck
18:00 Company lifecycles, aging businesses, and management discipline
23:18 Apple, Meta, and contrasting approaches to AI investment
24:08 AI bubbles, winner-take-all dynamics, and capital cycles
27:48 Infrastructure investing, debt risk, and societal spillovers
32:20 Cross-ownership risks and AI ecosystem fragility
35:00 AI’s impact on profit margins and competition
39:41 Where AI value may accrue over time
44:38 AI tools, valuation bots, and the rise of investment scams
49:17 Private markets, alternatives, and cost structures
53:05 Cash, collectibles, and diversification beyond equities
56:33 Reentering markets after selling and avoiding market timing traps
58:35 Time horizon, legacy investing, and generational wealth

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Liz Ann Sonders to discuss the evolving market and economic landscape heading into 2026. The conversation focuses on why this cycle feels fundamentally different, how instability rather than uncertainty is shaping investor behavior, and what that means for inflation, the labor market, Federal Reserve policy, and equity markets. Liz Ann breaks down the growing bifurcation across the economy and markets, the shift away from the Great Moderation era, and how investors should think about diversification, earnings, valuations, and AI-driven capital spending in a more volatile and fragmented environment.
Main topics covered
• Why today’s environment is better described as unstable rather than uncertain
• The K-shaped economy and growing bifurcation across consumers, sectors, and markets
• Inflation dynamics and why 2 percent may now be a floor rather than a ceiling
• How deglobalization, supply chains, and tariffs are changing the inflation regime
• The shifting relationship between stocks and bonds
• Hard data versus soft data and what sentiment is really telling us
• The labor market’s headwinds and tailwinds, including immigration and hiring trends
• AI’s impact on productivity, jobs, and capital spending
• The AI capex boom and how it differs from the late 1990s tech cycle
• Earnings growth, valuation compression, and market broadening
• Rolling recessions versus traditional economic downturns
• Federal Reserve challenges under a conflicted dual mandate
• Why factor-based investing matters more than sector or style calls
Timestamps
00:00 Introduction and why this cycle feels different
02:00 Uncertainty versus instability in markets
03:30 The K-shaped economy and market bifurcation
07:00 Market broadening, small caps, and diversification
09:00 Inflation measurement challenges and data reliability
12:00 Why inflation may stay above 2 percent
15:00 Stock and bond correlations across cycles
17:30 Labor market crosscurrents and immigration effects
20:45 AI, productivity, and entry-level job pressures
24:30 Sentiment versus fundamentals in markets
27:30 Retail trading, behavior, and market psychology
31:00 Rolling recessions and post-pandemic distortions
38:00 Technology, cyclicality, and sector rotation
40:30 The Fed’s policy dilemma and internal disagreements
45:00 AI capital spending and comparisons to the dot-com era
51:00 Earnings growth versus valuation expansion
55:00 Factors, GARP, and portfolio positioning for 2026

This episode of Excess Returns features a wide ranging conversation with Grant Williams on what he calls the hundred year pivot. Grant explains why today’s environment feels fundamentally different from the last several decades, why long held investing assumptions may no longer apply, and how declining trust in institutions, money, and markets is reshaping the global financial system. Drawing on history, macroeconomics, and decades of market experience, the discussion explores what this transition means for investors trying to navigate a world defined by uncertainty, volatility, and structural change.
Main topics covered
• What the hundred year pivot means and why it represents a once in a generation shift
• The Fourth Turning framework and how it connects financial crises, politics, and social change
• Why buy the dip worked for decades and why it may fail in the years ahead
• The erosion of trust in institutions and its impact on markets and money
• The financial crisis, sanctions, and the freezing of sovereign assets as turning points
• The role of the dollar, gold, and central banks in a changing monetary system
• Lessons from history including Bretton Woods and the Suez crisis
• Why commodities and real assets matter in a world of deglobalization and reshoring
• How artificial intelligence fits into the current investment cycle and capital allocation boom
• Portfolio construction and behavioral challenges in a higher volatility environment
Timestamps
00:00 The hundred year pivot and why this cycle is different
01:30 Defining the Fourth Turning and historical cycles
07:40 The financial crisis as the start of institutional breakdown
11:00 Sanctions, sovereign assets, and the end of unquestioned trust in the dollar
18:20 Historical parallels from Bretton Woods and the Suez crisis
24:50 What could trigger a broader monetary reset
28:50 Energy, geopolitics, and shifting global alliances
35:00 Commodities, real assets, and rebuilding supply chains
42:40 Artificial intelligence, capital cycles, and uncertainty
52:30 Portfolio construction, behavior, and risk tolerance
59:50 Where to follow Grant Williams and his work