Excess Returns

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with TG Macro founder Tony Greer to explore why markets are increasingly signaling a loss of faith in institutions and what that means for investors heading into 2026. Tony lays out a framework that connects inflation, central bank credibility, political risk, global regime change, and shifting consumer behavior into a coherent macro narrative. From gold and precious metals to miners, commodities, cyclicals, and the evolving role of AI, this conversation bridges big-picture macro themes with actionable market insights for both traders and long-term investors.
Topics covered:
• Why gold is rallying as trust in institutions erodes
• Central banks, inflation, and the long-term consequences of monetary policy
• The shift from a 60-40 portfolio to alternatives and real assets
• Precious metals versus technology leadership in a changing market regime
• Gold miners, industrial miners, and uranium as core themes
• Consumer inflation, food prices, and purchasing power on Main Street
• Big Food, Big Pharma, and the broader trust breakdown
• Legal, political, and geopolitical risks shaping investor behavior
• The end of globalization and the rise of domestic supply chains
• Copper, energy, and natural resources in an economic recovery
• AI, semiconductors, and signs of a leadership transition
• Prediction markets and new tools for understanding market expectations
• Financials, airlines, and overlooked cyclical opportunities
• How to think about risk management when macro regimes change
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and the collapse of trust in institutions
02:00 Why gold is responding to credibility loss, not fear
05:00 Central banks, inflation, and monetary excess
08:20 Purchasing power and real-world inflation pressures
11:00 Big Food, Big Pharma, and consumer awareness
14:00 Healthcare, fraud, and institutional breakdown
16:30 Legal system risk and political credibility
18:30 Global factors, sanctions, and the shift away from globalization
21:00 Precious metals, miners, and natural resource leadership
25:00 The three mining themes driving performance
29:00 Stocks and gold rising together in a new regime
32:00 Gold market structure and long-term trend analysis
36:00 Japan, global bond markets, and gold demand
39:00 Investing versus trading precious metals
43:00 Copper, supply chains, and tech partnerships
47:00 AI leadership, capital rotation, and market risk
51:00 Financials, airlines, and cyclical signals
57:30 What would break the thesis and risk management signals

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, to discuss how long-term macro forces are shaping markets and investment opportunities. Jan shares how his firm thinks about government spending, monetary policy, and technology, why he believes investors have more visibility than they realize heading into 2026, and how trends like artificial intelligence, gold, and global asset allocation could redefine portfolios over the next decade and beyond.
Topics covered in this episode include
How VanEck uses fiscal policy, monetary policy, and technology as core macro pillars

Why declining fiscal deficits may reduce long-term stress on markets

The case for a less interventionist Federal Reserve and what it means for investors

Why thinking in decades, not quarters, can lead to higher conviction investing

Artificial intelligence as a transformative economic force and its impact on semiconductors, energy, and productivity

The AI capex buildout, compute shortages, and lessons from past infrastructure booms

Gold’s resurgence as a global store of value in a multipolar world

The difference between owning physical gold and gold mining stocks

Risks and opportunities in private credit and business development companies

Why illiquid assets may not belong in daily liquidity vehicles like ETFs

India’s long-term growth potential and implications for global portfolios

How family ownership influences VanEck’s long-term investment approach

Behavioral mistakes investors make and why long-term charts matter

Lessons Jan would teach the average investor based on decades of market experience

Timestamps
00:00 Introduction and VanEck’s macro framework
02:25 Translating macro views into product development
04:34 2026 outlook and why visibility may mean risk on
06:00 Fiscal deficits, interest rates, and market stress
07:00 The future of Federal Reserve intervention
10:48 Long-term investing versus short-term predictions
14:00 India, global growth, and asset allocation
19:00 Artificial intelligence, compute demand, and semiconductors
24:00 AI, jobs, and economic impact
29:00 AI capex, market concentration, and historical analogies
38:31 Private credit risks and liquidity considerations
40:35 Illiquid assets and ETFs
42:56 Gold, global currencies, and long-term trends
47:26 Gold miners versus physical gold
52:14 Contrarian opportunities and underloved markets
52:47 Advantages of a family-owned investment firm
56:06 Tokenization, blockchain, and market structure
59:45 Investor psychology and long-term charts
01:02:05 Lessons for the average investor

In this episode of Excess Returns, Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather joins Matt Zeigler to unpack what she calls the Great Housing Reset. Rather than a housing crash or correction, Fairweather argues the market is entering a multi year transition toward something more normal, where incomes gradually catch up to home prices and affordability improves at the margin. The conversation covers mortgage rates, supply constraints, regional housing dynamics, climate risk, policy tradeoffs, and how AI is reshaping real estate decisions for buyers, renters, and investors.
Topics covered in this episode
• Why the current housing market is a reset, not a crash or correction
• How income growth outpacing home price growth could slowly improve affordability
• Mortgage rate dynamics and why rates may stay near the low 6 percent range
• The mortgage rate lock in effect and why inventory may take years to normalize
• Regional housing trends including the Midwest, Northeast, Sunbelt, and tech hubs
• The role of wages, rents, and affordability for Gen Z and first time homebuyers
• Investor activity, rental markets, and the outlook for housing as an investment
• Immigration, foreign buyers, and local market distortions
• Multi generational living, ADUs, and creative housing solutions
• Housing policy ideas that actually address supply constraints
• Why demand side policies like 50 year mortgages miss the real problem
• Climate risk, insurance costs, and total cost of home ownership
• How AI and conversational search are changing the home buying process
• The future of MLS consolidation and real estate market structure
• Practical guidance for renters, buyers, and homeowners looking ahead to 2026
Timestamps
00:00 Introduction and the Great Housing Reset
02:00 What a housing reset really means
03:30 Income growth versus home price growth
05:20 Mortgage rates and the outlook for borrowing costs
08:40 Fed policy, bond markets, and mortgage rates
10:40 Inventory shortages and the lock in effect
12:30 Regional housing market winners and losers
16:00 Affordability challenges for younger buyers
19:00 Rental markets and investor dynamics
21:20 Multi generational living and ADUs
25:00 Housing policy and supply constraints
29:30 Why 50 year mortgages do not solve affordability
33:00 Geographic housing outlook by life stage
39:30 Climate risk, insurance, and housing costs
47:00 Energy efficiency and dense housing
50:20 AI, real estate search, and market structure
54:30 What to watch in the housing market through 2026
59:30 Book discussion and where to follow Daryl Fairweather

In this episode of Excess Returns, Rupert Mitchell returns to break down a rapidly shifting global macro landscape and explain how he is positioning across regions, assets, and market regimes. The conversation spans emerging markets, commodities, China, Latin America, US market leadership, and the risks building beneath familiar narratives. Rupert walks through the charts, frameworks, and portfolio construction decisions that underpin his current outlook, with a focus on duration, cash flows, and real assets in a changing cycle.
Topics covered include:
Why US equity leadership is showing signs of fatigue after a decade-plus run

The case for emerging markets as a multi-year relative trade

Latin America as a commodity-driven opportunity rather than a political bet

Brazil, Mexico, and Peru through the lens of fiscal policy and real assets

Why India stands out as expensive within emerging markets

China’s equity market inflection and the role of domestic savings and fiscal support

The difference between onshore A-shares and offshore Chinese equities

Why Rupert prefers lower-beta, dividend-oriented exposure in China

How AI is being deployed differently in China versus the US

The risks facing enterprise software and long-duration growth assets

Portfolio construction, benchmarking, and managing drawdowns across cycles

How Rupert thinks about hedging, trend following, and capital preservation

Timestamps:
00:00 Macro market backdrop and early warning signals
01:00 Venezuela, oil, and why context matters more than headlines
04:40 The chart of truth and US versus international equities
07:00 Emerging markets relative performance and historical parallels
10:00 Duration risk, valuation, and the shift toward real assets
14:30 Mag 7 leadership, software weakness, and AI disruption
18:00 India valuations and the role of flows and derivatives
20:40 Latin America beyond politics: commodities and fiscal drivers
26:00 Brazil, Mexico, and country-level positioning
29:50 Benchmarking and why Latin America is a major overweight
32:10 China’s equity inflection and the ABC framework
36:00 Fiscal policy, buybacks, and domestic savings in China
41:00 Tencent versus Alibaba and managing drawdowns
44:30 AI capex discipline in China versus the US
46:00 Stock selection in China and second-derivative opportunities
51:00 Portfolio construction, benchmarks, and risk management
58:00 Blind Squirrel Macro, live shows, and ongoing research

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Gary Mishuris, Managing Partner and CIO of Silver Ring Value Partners, to explore how deep fundamental analysis, behavioral insight, and disciplined process come together in real-world investing. Gary shares formative lessons from his early career at Fidelity during the post-tech bubble period, including firsthand experiences learning from legends like Peter Lynch, and connects those lessons to how he evaluates value, quality, and mispricing today. The conversation spans a detailed case study on Warner Bros. Discovery, portfolio construction under uncertainty, selective use of options, and how artificial intelligence is reshaping the research process for long-term investors.
Topics covered in this episode
• Lessons from Peter Lynch and Fidelity on why “just cheap” does not work
• The Silver Ring origin story and how early life experiences shaped a value investing mindset
• Warner Bros. Discovery as a good business plus bad business mispricing case study
• How hated stocks, spin-offs, and catalysts can unlock hidden value
• Conviction, position sizing, and staying rational when the market disagrees
• When and why options can be used in a value investing framework
• Auctions, ego, and why prices can overshoot intrinsic value
• The role of mental models like reflexivity, activation energy, and lollapalooza effects
• How AI fits into an investment research process without replacing judgment
• What average investors should understand about incentives and simplicity
Timestamps
00:00 Introduction and why “just cheap” does not work
02:20 Early career at Fidelity and lessons from Peter Lynch
07:40 The Silver Ring story and learning what real value means
12:00 Warner Bros. Discovery and the good company bad company problem
18:30 Conviction, mispricing, and maintaining discipline in hated stocks
26:40 Using options selectively and managing portfolio-level risk
34:10 Auctions, ego, and when price can detach from intrinsic value
44:30 Entertainment, media disruption, and evergreen demand for content
49:50 How AI is changing equity research and idea generation
55:40 What AI can see that humans often miss
01:00:30 One lesson for the average investor