Excess Returns

David Rosenberg returns to Excess Returns to explain his bullish case for Treasury bonds, why he expects inflation and economic growth to slow, and the risks he sees in an AI-driven stock market. The Rosenberg Research founder joins Matt Zeigler to discuss consumer spending, Federal Reserve policy, gold, international stocks, and how he translates his economic outlook into a diversified portfolio.
Recorded September 16, 2026, before the Federal Reserve's policy announcement.
David Rosenberg on Twitter
https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie
Rosenberg Research
https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/
Topics covered:
Why Rosenberg believes markets have priced in too much Fed tightening and Treasury bonds offer an opportunity

Why he views higher oil prices as a tax on consumers rather than evidence of sustained, broad-based inflation

How slowing wage growth, falling savings, and the stock market wealth effect shape consumer spending

How Treasury issuance changes and potential post-election fiscal gridlock could support bonds

Why AI exposure extends beyond technology stocks into utilities, industrials, and other sectors

Where he sees opportunities in healthcare, consumer staples, pipelines, European stocks, and Asia

His model portfolio's allocation to equities, bonds, cash, and commodities

How gold, central bank buying, and a bearish dollar outlook fit his investment thesis

Why he is positioning for slower growth without making recession his base case

What working with portfolio managers taught him about cutting losses and separating conviction from stubbornness

Timestamps:
00:00 Rosenberg's portfolio approach and the Treasury opportunity
05:58 Why an oil shock can weaken consumer spending
10:52 Jobs, wages, and the stock market wealth effect
17:35 Fiscal stimulus, Treasury issuance, and the bond outlook
22:53 AI concentration risk beyond technology stocks
27:10 Why he owns European and Asian equities
31:16 Inside his 50% stocks, 30% bonds model portfolio
36:43 Betting against the inflation consensus
42:41 Gold, central bank reserves, and a weaker dollar
48:56 Recession watch and bear market risks for 2027
53:10 AI correlations and the risks of being fully invested
58:27 Cutting losses and knowing when conviction becomes stubbornness
Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Franklin Templeton CEO Jenny Johnson joins Matt Zeigler to explore how AI, blockchain tokenization, and private markets are reshaping investing and asset management. They discuss what these changes mean for individual investors, from personalized portfolios and access to private companies to the concentration risks hiding in passive index funds. Jenny also shares lessons from her journey from intern to CEO, why financial advisors still matter, and why starting early remains her most important investing lesson.
Franklin Templeton
https://www.franklintempleton.com
Topics covered:
Why AI could create new industries and why learning to use it matters for young professionals

How Franklin Templeton uses AI agents and why investment decisions still require human judgment

Building personalized portfolios around retirement, college savings, and other financial goals

How blockchain, smart contracts, and instant settlement could reduce financial transaction costs

Tokenized money market funds, digital wallets, and the obstacles to bringing ETFs on-chain

Why companies stay private longer and what investors miss when they only own public stocks

Private credit, illiquidity, and the trade-offs involved in expanding access to private markets

How mega IPOs, AI spending, and changing index composition can increase portfolio concentration

Balancing shareholders, employees, and clients while investing in a company's long-term future

The value of financial advisors, staying invested, and giving compounding time to work

Timestamps:
00:00 Jenny Johnson's leadership lessons and path from intern to CEO
06:41 AI job disruption and lessons from earlier technology revolutions
10:42 How young analysts use AI and where personalized investing is heading
15:44 Human judgment, AI agents, and the future of asset management
20:17 How tokenization could lower costs and expand financial access
24:39 Why blockchain adoption is slow and how tokenized ETFs work
29:58 Private company growth, investor access, and liquidity trade-offs
35:20 Mega IPOs, index concentration, and the risks of AI spending
41:23 Franklin Templeton's family legacy and investing for the next generation
46:18 Why financial advisors matter and why investors should start early
51:32 Jenny's hands-on experiments with AI tools
Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Jim Paulsen joins Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler on the latest Jim Paulsen Show to explore why booming AI earnings may be masking a weakening U.S. economy, and what that means for stocks, bonds, and Federal Reserve policy. Using 27 charts, he examines stalled job creation, rising oil prices, growing reliance on debt to finance AI investment, and why he expects a sharper correction in technology than in the broader S&P 500.

⁠Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠
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Topics covered:
Why strong S&P 500 earnings hide a widening divide between technology, energy, and the remaining seven sectors.

Why low unemployment claims may offer false comfort when job creation has stalled.

Jim's job market misery index and what it suggests about the case for Fed easing.

How business investment and employment have broken their historical relationship.

Why weak real disposable income, low savings, and higher oil prices threaten consumer spending.

How fading economic momentum could push Treasury yields lower despite renewed inflation fears.

Why a shrinking wall of worry could remove an important source of support for stocks.

What growth stock leadership, household purchasing power, and ISM services data reveal about market risk.

How debt-funded AI spending and widening credit spreads change the risks facing technology companies.

Why extreme stock outperformance versus bonds could matter for portfolio allocation.

The difference between rising profits per worker and sustainable economic productivity.

Why Jim expects a tech bear market but a more moderate correction in the broader S&P 500.

Timestamps:
00:00 Why oil, rates, and tight policy worry Jim
05:43 The three-way split hiding beneath strong earnings
09:58 Why low jobless claims may be misleading
16:18 When business investment stops creating jobs
20:48 Can consumer spending outrun real income?
26:01 How the wall of worry has supported stocks
31:44 Investor complacency and a shift toward growth fears
36:58 The disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street
41:35 AI debt financing, credit spreads, and the case for bonds
47:25 Investment per worker and the yield curve's earnings warning
51:52 Profit productivity versus real economic productivity
58:08 Why Jim expects a tech bear market and a broader correction
Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Former Fidelity president and MFS chairman Bob Pozen joins Excess Returns to discuss retirement investing, the risks in private credit, and why he favors a 90% stock and 10% cash portfolio for investors who can cover their living expenses without selling stocks.
Drawing on decades in asset management, he shares lessons from Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett, explains why index funds are difficult to beat, and challenges conventional thinking about bonds, Social Security, and corporate earnings reporting.
Bob Pozen's website
https://www.bobpozen.com
Follow Bob Pozen on Twitter
https://x.com/Pozen
Research discussed:
Consequences of Mandatory Quarterly Reporting: The U.K. Experience
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2817120
Rating Without Market Discipline
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6859158
Giving Life to Private (Rated) Credit
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6857958
Topics covered:
What investors misunderstand about Peter Lynch and how fund liquidity shaped his approach versus Warren Buffett's.

Lessons from leading Fidelity and rebuilding investor trust at MFS after its trading scandal.

Why fees, fund size, and market efficiency make large-cap index funds difficult to beat.

Private equity in 401(k) plans, liquidity constraints, and the problem with instant valuation markups.

How private credit ratings and affiliated investments can obscure risks on insurance company balance sheets.

Pozen's proposals for Social Security reform and the consequences of postponing difficult decisions.

How automatic IRA enrollment could expand retirement savings access for workers without employer plans.

Why Pozen favors a 90/10 portfolio for certain investors and how spending needs and inheritance goals affect allocation.

Why quarterly financial reporting and quarterly earnings guidance deserve different treatment.

The behavioral cost of chasing rallies and selling downturns, plus Pozen's work on AI and personal productivity.

Timestamps:
00:00 Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, and staying the course
05:27 Leading Fidelity and keeping stock funds invested
11:03 Rebuilding trust at MFS after the trading scandal
16:01 Why active managers struggle to beat index funds
20:03 Private equity in 401(k)s and valuation concerns
24:45 Private credit ratings and insurance company risks
29:33 Regulatory gaps and affiliated insurance investments
35:51 Social Security reform and the cost of waiting
40:00 Automatic IRAs for workers without retirement plans
44:09 The case for 90% stocks and 10% cash
50:05 Why quarterly financial reporting matters
55:00 The problem with precise quarterly earnings guidance
59:00 Avoiding emotional market timing and AI productivity tools
Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

John Kerschner and Michael Contopoulos of Janus Henderson join Matt Zeigler to explain why persistent inflation and higher interest rates call for a different approach to bond investing. They explore short-duration bonds, AAA CLOs, mortgage-backed securities and how investors can rethink the fixed income allocation in a 60/40 portfolio.
The conversation covers why traditional bond benchmarks may deliver too much interest rate risk for their yield, how ETFs expand access to securitized credit, and why the AI buildout could add to inflation rather than solve it.
High-Conviction Views: The time for short-duration bonds
https://www.janushenderson.com/en-us/advisor/article/high-conviction-views-the-time-for-short-duration-bonds/
Janus Henderson Investors
https://www.janushenderson.com/en-us/advisor/
Topics covered:
Why deglobalization, fiscal spending and labor constraints could keep inflation and interest rates elevated

How the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index concentrates interest rate risk and leaves out large parts of the bond market

How AAA CLOs work, why their coupons float, and why they are different from cash

Why tight corporate credit spreads may offer insufficient compensation for the risks investors take

The three jobs of fixed income: safety, income and insurance

How duration determines whether rising rates can wipe out a bond portfolio's income

Why bond ETF discounts can reflect price discovery when underlying bonds are not trading

How Treasury borrowing and AI hyperscaler debt issuance affect bond supply and relative value

Why AI capital spending, electricity demand, labor shortages and wealth effects can create inflation

How to rebuild the bond allocation around securitized credit, agency mortgages and the risks in your equity portfolio

Timestamps:
00:00 Rethinking bonds after years of disappointing returns
04:28 Why the forces behind the bond bull market have changed
10:09 The hidden interest rate risk in the Aggregate Bond Index
14:53 AAA CLO ETFs: Floating income, structure and drawdown risk
20:44 Treasury fiscal risk and tight corporate credit spreads
26:16 Moving beyond set-and-forget bond funds
30:45 How duration can overwhelm your bond yield
36:27 Bond ETF liquidity and price discovery during stress
41:11 Treasury borrowing, AI debt and securitized bond supply
46:00 How hyperscaler borrowing can create credit market dislocations
50:29 Four reasons AI could increase inflation
55:56 Rebuilding the 40% bond allocation in a 60/40 portfolio
01:02:00 Municipal bonds, recession protection and balancing equity risk
Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.