The Retail Rally Trap | Kris Sidial on Market Fragility and the Risks of Buy the Dip
In this episode, Kris Sidial joins Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba to break down the mechanics of tail risk hedging, why most volatility strategies fail, and how his team approaches dislocations in the market. We explore what's really driving volatility behind the scenes, the evolving market structure, and why the current environment may be far more precarious than it appears. If you’ve ever wondered how professional vol traders monetize chaos—or why volatility can stick around far longer than people expect—this episode is for you.Topics Covered:What tail risk funds are and why many of them underperformHow to build a long volatility strategy that doesn’t bleed capitalWhy rebalancing is a critical component of portfolio resilienceLiquidity fragility and how it amplifies market movesRetail's role in the latest rally and the fading institutional bidStructural risks created by passive flows and policy shiftsMonetizing volatility spikesThe psychological traps that lead to poor volatility trading decisionsWhy volatility might stay elevated for far longer than most expect
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59:52
Mag Seven Margin Crunch | Cameron Dawson on Tariffs, Recession Risk and the Defensive Investing Trap
Are we heading toward a recession—or just stuck in macroeconomic purgatory? In this episode of Excess Returns, Dave Nadig and Matt Zeigler sit down with Cameron Dawson, CIO of NewEdge Wealth, to explore the uncertain territory between headline-driven panic and hard data reality. From the implications of sweeping tariffs to the capital account war no one's talking about,Cameron offers one of the sharpest macro takes we've heard. We cover where the market might go next, how investors should respond to volatility, and what signals to trust in a confusing environment.Topics Covered:Why we’re in a “no man’s land” between tariffs and hard dataThe potential economic fallout of 145% tariffs on ChinaCapital account war: Why treasury demand may be fadingWhat the collapse in shipping and trucking data tells usHow margin compression could trigger job cutsThe case for value over growth after a Mag 7 blow-offUsing technicals, sentiment, and positioning to spot turning pointsWhy quality stocks may beat traditional defensivesWhether hedging is worth it vs. holding T-billsPractical strategies for rebalancing through market chaos
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51:50
The Market's Best-Kept Secret | Travis Prentice on Momentum's Surprising Edge
In this episode of Excess Returns, Justin and Jack welcome Travis Prentice from Informed Momentum Company to discuss the ins and outs of momentum investing. Travis brings nearly three decades of momentum investing experience and shares valuable insights about momentum strategies, misconceptions, implementation challenges, and how momentum can be effectively combined with other factors. This conversation offers both beginning and experienced investors a comprehensive look at this powerful investment strategy.Topics Covered:What momentum investing is and how it differs from growth investingThe mechanics of cross-sectional momentum and relative strengthCommon misconceptions about momentum strategiesHow fundamental data can enhance momentum strategiesThe significance of continuous vs. dynamic momentumPortfolio construction, sector concentration, and rebalancing approachesMomentum performance across different market caps and geographiesThe risk profile of momentum vs. value strategiesMomentum crashes - what they are and how to mitigate themTax efficiency of momentum strategiesThe impact of passive investing on momentum strategiesOptimal factor combinations for diversified portfolios
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50:44
The Monumental Miscalculation | Jared Dillian on Tariffs, Fed Risks, and Where Markets Go from Here
Join hosts Matt Ziegler and Jack Forehand as they interview Jared Dillian (@DailyDirtNap on Twitter) for a fascinating discussion on current market conditions, macroeconomic trends, and controversial investment perspectives. Jared shares his unique takes on everything from tariffs to portfolio construction, offering insights that often challenge conventional wisdom.Topics Covered:Jared's contrarian view that tariffs are deflationary rather than inflationaryThe potential long-term decline of the dollar despite possible short-term strengthHow financial wars have replaced hot and cold wars in global politicsThe future of US debt and potential parallels to past debt crisesJared's "Awesome Portfolio" strategy: 20% stocks, 20% bonds, 20% cash, 20% gold, 20% real estateWhy international stocks may continue to outperform US equitiesPossible recession indicators and economic headwindsFed policy predictions and why rates might not be cut as expectedThe value of sentiment indicators and Twitter as a market research toolWhy free trade benefits economies and the risks of protectionist policies
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54:22
The One Lesson: 50 Great Investors Share the One Thing They Would Teach You
When we started Excess Returns, we wanted to come up with one way to boil down the best advice from the experts we have interviewed into one simple question. That led us to create a standard closing question that we ask all of our guests, “Based on your experience in the markets, if you could teach one lesson to your average investor, what would that be?”.Over the history of the podcast, we have asked that question to close to 200 guests ranging from great investors to academic experts to options and macro traders. In this episode, we share the answers from our 50 most popular guests all in one episode. Featured guests include Liz Ann Sonders, Cliff Asness, Guy Spier, Michael Mauboussin, Mike Green, Cem Karsan, Chris Davis, Aswath Damodaran, Jack Schwager, Rick Ferri and many others. Topics Covered:The fundamental purpose of investing: preserving and growing wealth rather than getting rich quickThe importance of base rates in investment decisionsPortfolio monitoring frequency and its impact on investment psychologyViewing stocks as ownership in actual businesses rather than trading vehiclesThe value of patience, humility, and self-forgiveness in the investment processDiversification across asset classes, strategies, and time framesThe benefits of simplicity in investment approachesThe psychological challenges of investing and how to overcome themCompounding as a fundamental wealth-building toolThe danger of performance chasing and overconfidenceThe value of a rules-based investment process
Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.
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