Excess Returns

In this episode of Excess Returns, we’re joined again by Dan Rasmussen of Verdad Advisors for a wide-ranging conversation that challenges some of the most popular narratives in markets today. From private equity and private credit risks to AI-driven capital cycles and overlooked opportunities in biotech and international equities, Dan offers a deeply research-driven perspective on where investors may be misallocating capital and where future returns could emerge. Alongside Justin and special guest co-host Kai Wu, the discussion connects valuation, incentives, and innovation in a market environment shaped by concentration, leverage, and technological change.
Main topics covered
• Why private equity performance continues to disappoint and where the biggest structural risks are emerging
• The growing stress in private credit and what rising bankruptcies signal for lower middle-market deals
• Why democratizing private equity through 401ks, interval funds, and ETFs may create more problems than solutions
• How AI CapEx is changing the economics of Big Tech and why asset-light models may be getting worse, not better
• The case for diversifying away from U.S. concentration toward international markets and international small value
• Why bubbles are often necessary for innovation and how to think about AI through that historical lens
• How investors may be underestimating valuation and growth bankruptcy risk in the Mag 7
• Why biotech is one of the hardest sectors to model and how Verdad rebuilt its framework from scratch
• How intangible value, clinical trial data, specialist ownership, and peer momentum can improve biotech investing
• What capital starvation, M&A dynamics, and global competition mean for biotech’s future returns
Timestamps
00:00 Introduction and market narratives
02:20 Revisiting private equity risks and performance
06:58 Private credit stress and bankruptcy signals
10:58 Private equity in 401ks and interval fund risks
14:52 Private assets in ETFs and liquidity concerns
15:45 Why bubbles drive innovation and capital formation
20:13 AI CapEx, Mag 7 concentration, and valuation risk
25:24 International diversification and market leadership
29:41 Why Verdad turned to biotech research
37:13 Rebuilding biotech valuation and quality metrics
44:26 Clinical trial data and peer momentum insights
49:17 Portfolio construction and long-short biotech strategies
51:00 Capital starvation, AI, and biotech’s setup
53:58 Research culture, humility, and evolving quant models

In this episode of our new show The 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Mayer and Robert Hagstrom explore how the words investors use quietly shape the decisions they make — often in destructive ways. From labels like “cheap,” “expensive,” and “compounder” to debates about valuation, concentration, and AI, the conversation digs into how language collapses uncertainty into false certainty. Drawing on general semantics, mental models, and decades of investing experience, they explain why confusing maps for reality leads investors astray — and how clearer thinking can change how you see markets, risk, and long-term returns.
Topics discussed include:
Why paying 30x earnings can be rational when return on invested capital stays high

How the word “is” smuggles hidden assumptions into investment decisions

The difference between a company being a compounder and having compounded in the past

Why valuation debates are really disagreements about time horizon

The “map vs. territory” problem in financial statements and market data

Market concentration, index construction, and why benchmarks can mislead investors

How language shapes narratives around value, growth, and risk

AI investing, capital allocation, and separating durable businesses from hype

Why many binary true-or-false questions are traps for investors

How long-term investors think in decades, not quarters

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with TG Macro founder Tony Greer to explore why markets are increasingly signaling a loss of faith in institutions and what that means for investors heading into 2026. Tony lays out a framework that connects inflation, central bank credibility, political risk, global regime change, and shifting consumer behavior into a coherent macro narrative. From gold and precious metals to miners, commodities, cyclicals, and the evolving role of AI, this conversation bridges big-picture macro themes with actionable market insights for both traders and long-term investors.
Topics covered:
• Why gold is rallying as trust in institutions erodes
• Central banks, inflation, and the long-term consequences of monetary policy
• The shift from a 60-40 portfolio to alternatives and real assets
• Precious metals versus technology leadership in a changing market regime
• Gold miners, industrial miners, and uranium as core themes
• Consumer inflation, food prices, and purchasing power on Main Street
• Big Food, Big Pharma, and the broader trust breakdown
• Legal, political, and geopolitical risks shaping investor behavior
• The end of globalization and the rise of domestic supply chains
• Copper, energy, and natural resources in an economic recovery
• AI, semiconductors, and signs of a leadership transition
• Prediction markets and new tools for understanding market expectations
• Financials, airlines, and overlooked cyclical opportunities
• How to think about risk management when macro regimes change
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and the collapse of trust in institutions
02:00 Why gold is responding to credibility loss, not fear
05:00 Central banks, inflation, and monetary excess
08:20 Purchasing power and real-world inflation pressures
11:00 Big Food, Big Pharma, and consumer awareness
14:00 Healthcare, fraud, and institutional breakdown
16:30 Legal system risk and political credibility
18:30 Global factors, sanctions, and the shift away from globalization
21:00 Precious metals, miners, and natural resource leadership
25:00 The three mining themes driving performance
29:00 Stocks and gold rising together in a new regime
32:00 Gold market structure and long-term trend analysis
36:00 Japan, global bond markets, and gold demand
39:00 Investing versus trading precious metals
43:00 Copper, supply chains, and tech partnerships
47:00 AI leadership, capital rotation, and market risk
51:00 Financials, airlines, and cyclical signals
57:30 What would break the thesis and risk management signals

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, to discuss how long-term macro forces are shaping markets and investment opportunities. Jan shares how his firm thinks about government spending, monetary policy, and technology, why he believes investors have more visibility than they realize heading into 2026, and how trends like artificial intelligence, gold, and global asset allocation could redefine portfolios over the next decade and beyond.
Topics covered in this episode include
How VanEck uses fiscal policy, monetary policy, and technology as core macro pillars

Why declining fiscal deficits may reduce long-term stress on markets

The case for a less interventionist Federal Reserve and what it means for investors

Why thinking in decades, not quarters, can lead to higher conviction investing

Artificial intelligence as a transformative economic force and its impact on semiconductors, energy, and productivity

The AI capex buildout, compute shortages, and lessons from past infrastructure booms

Gold’s resurgence as a global store of value in a multipolar world

The difference between owning physical gold and gold mining stocks

Risks and opportunities in private credit and business development companies

Why illiquid assets may not belong in daily liquidity vehicles like ETFs

India’s long-term growth potential and implications for global portfolios

How family ownership influences VanEck’s long-term investment approach

Behavioral mistakes investors make and why long-term charts matter

Lessons Jan would teach the average investor based on decades of market experience

Timestamps
00:00 Introduction and VanEck’s macro framework
02:25 Translating macro views into product development
04:34 2026 outlook and why visibility may mean risk on
06:00 Fiscal deficits, interest rates, and market stress
07:00 The future of Federal Reserve intervention
10:48 Long-term investing versus short-term predictions
14:00 India, global growth, and asset allocation
19:00 Artificial intelligence, compute demand, and semiconductors
24:00 AI, jobs, and economic impact
29:00 AI capex, market concentration, and historical analogies
38:31 Private credit risks and liquidity considerations
40:35 Illiquid assets and ETFs
42:56 Gold, global currencies, and long-term trends
47:26 Gold miners versus physical gold
52:14 Contrarian opportunities and underloved markets
52:47 Advantages of a family-owned investment firm
56:06 Tokenization, blockchain, and market structure
59:45 Investor psychology and long-term charts
01:02:05 Lessons for the average investor

In this episode of Excess Returns, Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather joins Matt Zeigler to unpack what she calls the Great Housing Reset. Rather than a housing crash or correction, Fairweather argues the market is entering a multi year transition toward something more normal, where incomes gradually catch up to home prices and affordability improves at the margin. The conversation covers mortgage rates, supply constraints, regional housing dynamics, climate risk, policy tradeoffs, and how AI is reshaping real estate decisions for buyers, renters, and investors.
Topics covered in this episode
• Why the current housing market is a reset, not a crash or correction
• How income growth outpacing home price growth could slowly improve affordability
• Mortgage rate dynamics and why rates may stay near the low 6 percent range
• The mortgage rate lock in effect and why inventory may take years to normalize
• Regional housing trends including the Midwest, Northeast, Sunbelt, and tech hubs
• The role of wages, rents, and affordability for Gen Z and first time homebuyers
• Investor activity, rental markets, and the outlook for housing as an investment
• Immigration, foreign buyers, and local market distortions
• Multi generational living, ADUs, and creative housing solutions
• Housing policy ideas that actually address supply constraints
• Why demand side policies like 50 year mortgages miss the real problem
• Climate risk, insurance costs, and total cost of home ownership
• How AI and conversational search are changing the home buying process
• The future of MLS consolidation and real estate market structure
• Practical guidance for renters, buyers, and homeowners looking ahead to 2026
Timestamps
00:00 Introduction and the Great Housing Reset
02:00 What a housing reset really means
03:30 Income growth versus home price growth
05:20 Mortgage rates and the outlook for borrowing costs
08:40 Fed policy, bond markets, and mortgage rates
10:40 Inventory shortages and the lock in effect
12:30 Regional housing market winners and losers
16:00 Affordability challenges for younger buyers
19:00 Rental markets and investor dynamics
21:20 Multi generational living and ADUs
25:00 Housing policy and supply constraints
29:30 Why 50 year mortgages do not solve affordability
33:00 Geographic housing outlook by life stage
39:30 Climate risk, insurance, and housing costs
47:00 Energy efficiency and dense housing
50:20 AI, real estate search, and market structure
54:30 What to watch in the housing market through 2026
59:30 Book discussion and where to follow Daryl Fairweather