The Long Term Investor

Get an inside look at what's shaping my thinking. Bi-weekly, I share the top 5 investing and financial planning articles I'm reading—straight to your inbox. Sign up for my newsletter. -----  Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, joins me for a wide-ranging conversation about what actually matters for long-term investors heading into 2026. We get past the headline forecasts and into how a seasoned strategist interprets markets in real time—without falling into the traps that trip up most investors. Listen now and learn: ► Why "forecasts" can be useful even when you're not making price targets—and how to use them the right way ► A clearer way to think about what really drove market returns in 2025 (and what many investors missed) ► What to pay attention to with the Fed in 2026, and what's mostly just noise ► A grounded framework for thinking about the U.S. dollar, national debt, and the long-term investor's edge   Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions. (03:00)  Why Schwab Won't Do Year-End Targets  (08:23) How Liz Ann Builds an Outlook: cycles, quadrants, and "better or worse" vs. "good or bad" (13:33) 2025's Biggest Investor Lesson (16:48) The Magnificent Seven Misconception: contribution ≠ performance (21:05) The 2026 Outlook (26:09) The Federal Reserve, Rate Cuts, and a New Fed Chair: why the "C" in FOMC matters (31:39) The US Dollar and Reserve Currency Fears: "there's no replacement for it" (35:19) US National Debt: not a default story, but a long-term "wet blanket on growth"  (43:02) Long-Term Investing vs. Gambling: owning vs. hoping, and why "get in/get out" isn't a strategy (47:22) How Liz Ann Sonders Invests Her Own Money (50:16) What's Different Now: post-COVID sentiment, the retail trader, and why psychology got harder (52:55) Where to Find Liz Ann's Research    Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠) Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment. The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client. References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others. Please see disclosures here.

You don't have time to sift through endless financial content. That's why I do it for you. Get my top 5 must-read articles every week in a quick, easy-to-digest email. Sign up for my newsletter. -----  In this Talking Shop episode, I sit down with Rubin Miller for an unscripted conversation about why market forecasts fail, how advisors actually set return assumptions, and where investors most often misunderstand risk. We move freely from prediction season and capital market assumptions to investor behavior, bonds, and cash—focusing less on what markets will do next and more on how to build a plan you can stick with when narratives get loud. Listen and learn: ► Why short-term market predictions distract from what really drives long-term outcomes ► How ranges and probabilities lead to better financial plans than point forecasts ► What most investors get wrong about bonds, cash, and "playing it safe" ► Why the biggest investing mistakes come from narratives, not numbers   Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.   [02:00] – Market Forecasting and "Prediction Season": Why One-Year Outlooks Mislead [03:10] – Financial Planning Return Assumptions: Using Ranges and Probabilities (Not Point Estimates) [06:41] – Portfolio Construction Basics: Stocks Are Stocks, Bonds Are Tools [15:56] – Setting Investor Expectations: What Forecasts Can and Can't Do [21:01] – Behavioral Finance in Real Time: Volatility vs the Narrative Investors Fear [23:45] – Market Timing Bias: "I Knew This Would Happen" and Why It's Dangerous [29:39] – Risk Management: Probability vs Magnitude (How Investors Blow Up a Good Plan) [32:21] – Bond Strategy: Building a Portfolio You Can Stick With (Not the Highest Return) [38:30] – Cash Management: Ultra-Short Bond Funds, HYSAs, and the 2022 Hangover   Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠)   Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment. The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client. References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others. Please see disclosures here.

You don't have time to sift through endless financial content. That's why I do it for you. Get my top 5 must-read articles every week in a quick, easy-to-digest email. Sign up for my newsletter. -----  In this Talking Shop episode, I sit down with Ashby Daniels for an unscripted, behind-the-scenes conversation about investing, markets, and the behavioral mistakes that quietly derail long-term results. We move freely—from why simplicity keeps winning, to how investors misread risk, to what actually matters when markets feel noisy—without a single hot take in sight. If you've ever wondered how two investment professionals talk when there's no agenda and no sales pitch, this is it.   Listen now and learn: ► Why "beating the game" in investing rarely looks like working harder or knowing more ► How narratives—not numbers—drive most investor mistakes during market downturns ► What gets misunderstood about bonds, diversification, and "playing it safe" ► How experienced investors think differently about wealth, risk, and time   Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.   [04:15] – Nick Murray's Lasting Influence on Long-Term Investing and Market Thinking [05:45] – Why Investing Education Should Be Short, Simple, and Actionable [08:00] – Challenging Conventional Market Wisdom: Why Time Beats Tactics [09:45] – The Dave & Buster's Investing Lesson: How to "Beat the Game" [15:30] – Everybody Ought to Be Rich: The Power of Long-Term Stock Market Returns [18:30] – The Market Portfolio Explained: Stocks, Bonds, and Investor Distractions [21:15] – Market Corrections and Bear Markets: Why Trees Don't Grow to the Sky [24:30] – All-Stock Portfolios and Risk: When Equities Make Sense [29:45] – Investor Panic Isn't About Volatility—It's About Stories and Expectations [32:45] – Bond Investing, "Safety," and the Hidden Risk to Purchasing Power [35:45] – Private Equity, Gold, and Crypto: What Investors Get Wrong [41:30] – The $100 Million Thought Experiment: Getting Wealthy vs Staying Wealthy [46:00] – Why Timeless Investing Principles Still Win Over Time Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠)     Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment. The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client. References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others. Please see disclosures here.

Get updates for my new book: https://Theperfectportfoliobook.com -----  Most people think "risk" means volatility. In this episode, I define risk the way long-term investors actually experience it: the risk of failing to fund your life. Then we turn that definition into a practical plan–choosing a stock/bond mix you can live with, deciding what goes in each sleeve, and rebalancing with rules instead of gut feel.   Listen now and learn: ► A clearer way to think about risk before you pick an allocation ► The two-part test that determines your stock/bond mix ► How cash fits (and where it doesn't) when you're building a long-term portfolio ► A simple rebalancing approach you can follow without overthinking it   Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions. Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠)     Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment. The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client. References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others. Please see disclosures here.

Get updates for my new book: https://Theperfectportfoliobook.com  -----  Bond ladders, bond funds, money markets—if those words have you second‑guessing your plan, this episode will clear the fog. Inspired by questions from my Perfect Portfolio book‑updates list, I explain why many "bond" debates are actually cash management problems in disguise—and how to build a simple system that helps you stay disciplined when markets get ugly. Listen now and learn: ► How to tell—quickly—whether you're making a portfolio decision or a cash decision ► The "comfort trade" most investors accept with bond ladders (often without realizing it) ► A simple bucket framework for protecting near‑term spending without over‑hoarding cash ► The one practical maintenance habit that keeps your plan from falling apart during downturns   Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.   Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠)   Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment. The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client. References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others. Please see disclosures here.