Raoul Pal: The Journey Man

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David Mattin and Andreas Steno join forces for a special Exponentialist crossover on The Journey Man to explore whether the AI boom is running out of steam or entering its next phase.

They break down growing funding stress, rising GPU demand, and why the AI buildout may look very different from the dot-com bubble. They also discuss the battle between OpenAI and Anthropic, the rise of cheaper AI models, and where the next investment opportunities could emerge across energy, robotics, and the AI economy.

Today's episode is supported by Pyth Network, the fastest-growing name in market data, packed with over three thousand instruments covering equities, commodities, FX, rates, and crypto, plus the largest set of 24/7 financial indices out there. Pyth has already partnered with Fidelity, Revolut, Kalshi, Jane Street, Coinbase, and the U.S. Department of Commerce, and has recently developed a new model for financial data distribution. When modern markets require modern data solutions, Pyth Network is quickly becoming the answer. And it’s probably the only name in market data you can check out for free. Head over to pyth.network to take advantage of their free trial.

Timestamps:
00:00 - Is the AI Boom Starting to Crack?
01:37 - Are We Late in the AI Cycle?
03:20 - Why the AI Buildout Is Entering a New Phase
05:57 - AI Bubble Fears vs the Long-Term Reality
07:03 - Funding Stress, Bond Markets, and the AI CapEx Boom
09:01 - Why This Is Not the Dot-Com Bubble
13:11 - The Earnings Signal That Could Decide the AI Trade
15:09 - What Could Trigger a Major AI Market Selloff?
17:27 - Why Enterprise AI Adoption Is Still Very Early
20:59 - AI Regulation, Agent Swarms, and the Real Risks
24:19 - The U.S.–China AI Split Is Accelerating
25:18 - Where the AI Supply Chain Opportunities Are
29:50 - OpenAI vs Anthropic: Who Has the Momentum?
32:32 - Why Intelligence Is Becoming a Commodity
36:02 - The Battle for AI Pricing, UX, and User Lock-In
38:41 - Where the Real Value in AI Could Accrue
43:11 - OpenAI vs Anthropic as Future Public Companies
45:14 - GPU Rental Prices Are Still Surging
48:11 - Why Compute Demand Could Be Vastly Underestimated
50:24 - How AI Integration Is Driving Token Usage Higher
53:40 - The Next Phase of the AI Trade
54:16 - Energy, Robotics, and the Next Bottlenecks
56:49 - What Could Break the AI Bull Case?
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Why does growth keep slowing? Why does everything feel so expensive? Why do assets keep going up while wages feel flat? And why is AI arriving right now?

They sound like four different questions. Raoul Pal says they have one answer, and this film lays it out: four frameworks built over 21 years of Global Macro Investor (GMI), and the single code underneath them.

The full story is in my new book, The Everything Code (out 3 November): https://lnk.to/everythingcode

THE FOUR FRAMEWORKS

1. The Everything Code. Debt, demographics and liquidity working together to drive asset prices through debasement. Why growth slows, why debt has to be rolled over with ever more liquidity, and how GMI's calls have fared, the ones that worked and the ones that did not.

2. The Exponential Age. Every major technology going exponential at the same time, for the first time in history, each one feeding the others. Energy, compute and intelligence, and an honest look at how fast it is really moving.

3. The Economic Singularity. The point where the economic models of the last 250 years stop working, because the economy accelerates past what our instruments can measure. Raoul's view is around 2030.

4. The Universal Code. The framework underneath the other three. Everything is compute, and four laws (intelligence efficiency, compression, coherence and memetic selection) show up at every scale, from physics and biology to technology, culture and markets. Raoul is clear that this is his thesis: it is on firm ground, and it is not proven.

After the four chapters comes a short section on what to own, in three layers (the token producers, the application layer and the substrate). Then the film zooms all the way out in powers of ten, from quarks to the cosmic web, which looks strikingly like a brain's network of neurons.

CHAPTERS
0:00 Intro
1:36 Chapter 1: The Everything Code
10:45 Chapter 2: The Exponential Age
18:28 Chapter 3: The Economic Singularity
25:15 Chapter 4: The Universal Code
33:20 What to own
35:54 The zoom-out

ABOUT THE VOICE
The narration in this film is synthetic. It is an AI clone of Raoul Pal's own voice, reading a script that Raoul approved. The pictures are animated graphics and illustrations made for this film. There is no filmed footage.

#OneCode #GlobalMacroInvestor #Macro
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Raoul Pal unveils the GMI Dashboards on Real Vision, bringing his macro investing framework and market analysis tools directly to individual investors. He demonstrates how to track the business cycle, global liquidity, market trends, and risk using powerful AI-driven dashboards. From the free tools to the advanced Alpha and Pro features, Raoul shows how investors can identify opportunities, manage portfolios, and make more informed decisions using the same frameworks that guide his market outlook.

🏆 The Real Vision Trading is now open! The best trade ideas on the platform compete for $80,000 in cash and $20,000 in Real Vision memberships. Register for free to secure your spot.
📈 Trading League: https://realvision.com/your-future?utm_medium=social&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=2026_uyf&utm_content=journey-man

Today's episode is supported by Pyth Network, the fastest-growing name in market data, packed with over three thousand instruments covering equities, commodities, FX, rates, and crypto, plus the largest set of 24/7 financial indices out there. Pyth has already partnered with Fidelity, Revolut, Kalshi, Jane Street, Coinbase, and the U.S. Department of Commerce, and has recently developed a new model for financial data distribution. When modern markets require modern data solutions, Pyth Network is quickly becoming the answer. And it’s probably the only name in market data you can check out for free. Head over to pyth.network to take advantage of their free trial.

Timestamps:
00:00 - Raoul Pal’s New GMI Dashboards
02:03 - Why Raoul Built These Tools for Investors
02:49 - The “Compression” Framework: What Matters Right Now?
05:35 - Macro Investing Tool: Business Cycle and Liquidity
07:41 - Financial Conditions, Liquidity, and the Cycle Clock
09:14 - The Everything Code vs Market Trends
10:17 - The Risk Monitor: How to Size Portfolio Risk
10:56 - The Full Macro Dashboard: Liquidity, Bitcoin, and Nasdaq
13:43 - Inside the Pro Dashboard
16:16 - Portfolio Tripwires and Where Raoul Could Be Wrong
17:21 - The Compounding Machine: Bitcoin and Nasdaq
18:48 - How to Use the Dashboards to Find Opportunities
20:10 - Real Vision Trade Setups and Community Attention
21:19 - Free vs Macro Investing Tool vs Pro
22:04 - How Raoul Built the Entire System With AI

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Raoul Pal kicks off the Festival of Trading by revealing his personal investing philosophy and why he shifted away from short-term trading toward long-term compounding. He explains how he uses macro trends, liquidity, technical indicators, and risk management to identify opportunities across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Sui, and technology stocks. Raoul also walks through his approach to position sizing, volatility, and finding attractive risk-reward setups while avoiding the pitfalls of overtrading.

🏆 The Real Vision Trading is now open! The best trade ideas on the platform compete for $80,000 in cash. Register for free to secure your spot. 📈 Trading League: https://realvision.com/your-future?utm_medium=social&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=2026_uyf&utm_content=journey-man

Today's episode is supported by Pyth Network, the fastest-growing name in market data, packed with over three thousand instruments covering equities, commodities, FX, rates, and crypto, plus the largest set of 24/7 financial indices out there. Pyth has already partnered with Fidelity, Revolut, Kalshi, Jane Street, Coinbase, and the U.S. Department of Commerce, and has recently developed a new model for financial data distribution. When modern markets require modern data solutions, Pyth Network is quickly becoming the answer. And it’s probably the only name in market data you can check out for free. Head over to pyth.network to take advantage of their free trial.

Timestamps:
00:00 - Raoul Pal’s Trading Philosophy
01:12 - How Raoul Approaches Investing and Risk
03:47 - The Compounding Machine: Why Secular Trends Matter
05:08 - Business Cycles, Liquidity, and Portfolio Positioning
06:05 - How to Size Positions Using Volatility
08:59 - Tesla: Finding Entries in a Secular Uptrend
11:08 - Using Trend Indicators, Stop Losses, and DeMark Signals
14:59 - Why the Dollar Matters for Liquidity and Markets
17:15 - Ethereum: Measuring the Long-Term Opportunity
20:46 - Ethereum’s Risk/Reward and Potential Upside
23:07 - Sui: How Raoul Approaches Higher-Risk Crypto Bets
25:33 - Combining Technicals With the Macro Backdrop
27:21 - Why Raoul Concentrates in Technology and Crypto
30:35 - Building a Portfolio Around Time Horizon and Risk
33:23 - Why Raoul Prefers Holding Over Trading the Cycle

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Raoul welcomes back Emad Mostaque, Founder & CEO, Intelligent Internet, to explore how rapidly improving AI agents are crossing from impressive tools into genuinely useful, economically disruptive workers capable of transforming productivity, businesses, and entire industries. Raoul and Emad also discuss collapsing intelligence costs, robotics, labor displacement, energy and compute constraints, and what the acceleration of AI could mean for markets and the global economy.

Today's episode is supported by Pyth Network, the fastest-growing name in market data, and probably the only one you can check out for free. They’ve developed a new model for financial data distribution and they’ve already partnered with Fidelity, Revolut, Kalshi, Jane Street, Coinbase, and the U.S. Department of Commerce. Three thousand-plus instruments across equities, commodities, FX, rates and crypto, plus the largest set of 24/7 financial indices out there. When modern markets require modern data solutions, Pyth Network is quickly becoming the answer. Head over to pyth.network to take advantage of their free trial.
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