Locked On Oilers - Daily Podcast On The Edmonton Oilers

The Edmonton Oilers keep stacking wins even though their underlying numbers say they shouldn’t be. On today’s Locked On Oilers, Nick Zararis looks at how Edmonton is winning games with poor shot share, a leaky defense and a lineup full of injuries. He uses Kirby Smart’s blackjack lesson on analytics to explain the difference between process and results. He also explains why the regular season rewards hot goaltending and shooting luck, while the Stanley Cup Playoffs remain the great revealer.
Nick digs into the data from Natural Stat Trick to put Edmonton’s start in context. Last season, 11 of the top 12 teams in high-danger chance share made the playoffs. The Oilers went just 16-16-6 against playoff teams, a record that shows how much the early wins rest on beating weaker opponents. This year’s wins over Carolina, Utah, Minnesota and Seattle are real points in the standings, but the expected goals and high-danger numbers suggest Edmonton has been playing left-handed.
In the middle segment, Nick reviews Tristan Jarry’s week, including back-to-back shutouts against the New York Islanders and Calgary Flames. Over the last 10 games, Edmonton ranks in the bottom third of the league in shot attempts, scoring chances, expected goals and high-danger chances against, so the goaltending has been carrying the defense. Nick explains why consistent starts matter so much for a volatile veteran goalie trying to rebuild his confidence. He also looks ahead to a likely three-goalie rotation once Devon Levi and Frederik Andersen return.
To close the show, Nick breaks down Connor McDavid’s historic start: 39 points in 15 games, a 218-point pace over 84 games, and 4.48 points per 60 minutes. He looks at McDavid’s ice time at even strength, on the power play and on the penalty kill, and gives realistic projections for the rest of the season, including whether 150, 160 or even 170 points is on the table. Nick also previews tonight’s Oilers vs. New Jersey Devils matchup, including Connor Hellebuyck’s arrival in New Jersey and how Edmonton’s top end compares with Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier and the Devils’ depth.
05:13 Oilers' performance under pressure
06:40 Discussing high danger chances in NHL
12:08 Discussing LeBron, Sixers, and FanDuel
15:14 Discussing Oilers' Goalie Rotation
19:16 Jarry's journey and challenges
22:16 Analyzing Devils' Roster Moves
23:42 Comparing Oilers and Devils' talent
27:15 McDavid's offensive performance analysis
Why the Oilers Keep Winning: McDavid’s 218-Point Pace & Jarry’s Rebound

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The Edmonton Oilers swept the New York leg of their road trip, beating the New York Islanders on Saturday and the New York Rangers on Sunday on the second half of a back-to-back. Nick Zararis breaks down both wins on today’s Locked On Oilers. He covers why taking care of business against teams outside your weight class is exactly what a Stanley Cup contender has to do. He also addresses the fans asking why he’s been skeptical of a team sitting first in the Western Conference.
Against the Islanders, Tristan Jarry picked up his second straight shutout. That makes him the first Oilers goalie in four years to post shutouts in back-to-back starts, and he did it against a team that has historically had his number. Nick walks through the Islanders’ middle-of-the-pack underlying numbers and how Edmonton’s forecheck created goals that never show up in scoring-chance totals. Kasperi Kapanen won a 50-50 puck for Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Leon Draisaitl’s gravity set up a back-door tap-in for Vasily Podkolzin.
Against the Rangers, Connor McDavid went straight around Vladislav Gavrikov to score within 50 seconds. The Oilers controlled the game with a rookie goaltender in net, and the Rangers, playing without Igor Shesterkin, couldn’t recover. Kirby Dach added a goal and an empty-netter, and Evan Bouchard scored from the point. That leads Nick into his case that Bouchard is one of the five best defensemen in the world, alongside Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes and Adam Fox.
To close the show, Nick plays a “gym class draft” between the Oilers, Islanders and Rangers to show how the Oilers keep winning without the deeper roster on paper. He also covers how they’ve stayed first in the Pacific through injuries to Zach Hyman, Mattias Ekholm, Jason Dickinson and Nugent-Hopkins. If everyone gets healthy, are the Oilers more talented than Vegas, and what does their path through the West look like?
07:17 Rangers scoring struggles and player analysis
09:01 Talkiatry's online psychiatric care
11:48 Oilers New York road trip sweep
14:59 Analyzing second leg offense strategy
19:53 Introducing Odoo business software
24:44 Discussing player comparisons and strategies
25:37 Oilers' strength despite injuries
28:59 Cheering for the Oilers
Oilers SWEEP New York! Jarry Shutout, McDavid Burns Gavrikov & Bouchard Is Elite
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Evan Bouchard has been on the ice for 25 of the Edmonton Oilers’ 32 even-strength goals this season. No other player in the NHL has been on the ice for more. On today’s Locked On Oilers, Nick Zararis breaks down Bouchard’s 22 points in 13 games, his playoff-level 26:10 of ice time, and why the “one-dimensional” label never fit him. The bigger problem is that the rest of the Oilers defense isn’t holding up its end.
We go through every option for Bouchard’s partner. Ekholm and Bouchard have outscored opponents 16-3 at even strength, the Ryan Shea pairing has promising early numbers, and there’s a case for revisiting the Walman-Bouchard duo from the 2025 playoffs. We also look at what happens to Mattias Ekholm away from Connor McDavid, where the underlying numbers drop sharply. And we explain why Shakir Mukhamadullin is the Joe Pesci of the Oilers’ blue line.
Connor Murphy was the key to fixing Darnell Nurse last season. Nurse went from a 44% goal share to 57% after Murphy arrived, and his goals against per 60 fell from 2.9 to 1.24. This year, Murphy’s second pair is struggling without McDavid or Draisaitl to move the puck up ice. We look at why Stan Bowman’s talent-over-fit roster building may be catching up with the Oilers, and why Mike Babcock might need to split up McDavid and Draisaitl to fix the defense.
Finally, Nick takes one on the chin over Jake Walman. Walman was outscored 62-39 at even strength over the last two seasons, he was recently a healthy scratch, and he still has seven years left at $7 million per year. Is it his partners, his deployment, or is Walman simply cooked? Subscribe to Locked On Oilers for daily Edmonton Oilers analysis, and comment below with your ideal Oilers defense pairings.
04:41 Bouchard and Ekholm's on-ice chemistry
07:17 Evaluating defensemen pairings
12:43 Connor Murphy's impact on Nurse
14:11 Improving Oilers’ defensive pairs
17:16 Connor Murphy's defensive limitations
22:05 Jake Walman's playoff breakout
23:52 Jake Walman's performance issues
27:31 Evaluating Oilers defensive pairings
Bouchard, Murphy, and Whether Jake Walman Is Cooked
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The Edmonton Oilers got the textbook get-right game they needed, shutting out the Calgary Flames 4-0 in the first Battle of Alberta of the 2026-27 NHL season. After a frustrating shootout loss to the Detroit Red Wings on Monday, the Oilers bounced back with a gritty, hard-hat win that came from down the lineup instead of the usual stars. Host Nick Zararis breaks down why a win like this matters over an 84-game regular season, and why the goal is to keep raising the team’s baseline rather than riding the highs and lows. It wasn’t pretty, but the Oilers took care of business against a struggling division rival.
Offense came from unexpected places, with Mathieu Joseph and Alex Formenton contributing from what has been Edmonton’s weakest even-strength line. Mattias Ekholm scored in his return from a head injury, and Kasperi Kapanen added a power-play tap-in from the Zach Hyman spot thanks to Connor McDavid’s gravitational pull. Tristan Jarry made 24 saves for the shutout, a needed confidence boost while he serves as the No. 1 goalie during Devon Levi’s injury. Nick also looks at the Flames’ stalled rebuild under GM Craig Conroy, with Calgary sitting at 5-7-0 and 29th in the league in goals.
The bigger question is whether this top-heavy Oilers lineup can hold up against deeper Western Conference contenders like Dallas, Colorado, and Minnesota. McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Vasily Podkolzin, and Evan Bouchard have scored 35 of the team’s 55 goals, and McDavid is off to a historic 36-point start through 13 games. Nick asks whether head coach Mike Babcock is playing the long game by keeping struggling line combinations together, and whether it’s time to split McDavid and Draisaitl to spread out the scoring. He also explains why Jake Walman may need to play with Bouchard to rebuild his confidence on the blue line.
04:09 Managing injuries and roster challenges
08:36 Oilers win without style points
10:39 Discussing early NHL season dynamics
13:53 Strategies Against McDavid and Draisaitl
18:25 Predicting NHL Playoff Outcomes
22:40 Discussing team strategy and limitations
24:25 Connor's impressive start and strategy
27:19 Oilers defensive lineup decisions
Oilers Shut Out Flames 4-0 in Battle of Alberta: Depth Scoring Finally Shows Up
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The Edmonton Oilers are 9-1-2 and Connor McDavid is on pace for the best regular season of the 21st century, so why does it feel like something is off? On this Overreaction Wednesday edition of Locked On Oilers, Nick Zararis looks at five early-season storylines from the 2026-27 NHL season and decides which ones are real and which are noise. The topics are Tristan Jarry’s struggles in net, life without Mattias Ekholm, Ike Howard’s usage, whether to split McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, and whether Mike Babcock’s stubbornness will be the team’s undoing.
First up is the goaltending. With Devon Levi on injured reserve, Tristan Jarry is back in the crease, and Nick explains why the jump from franchise starter to once-a-week backup has been so hard on him mentally. Jarry came into Monday’s game against the Detroit Red Wings with an .873 save percentage, well below the league average of .892, and his long gaps between starts have made it nearly impossible to find a rhythm. Once Levi and Frederik Andersen are both healthy, Jarry could end up as the expensive odd man out.
Next, Nick puts numbers behind the Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard pairing. Over three years they have controlled close to 60% of shot attempts, goals, expected goals and high-danger chances, which makes them one of the most dominant defence pairs in the NHL. Bouchard’s numbers hold up surprisingly well without Ekholm, and Mukhamadullin had a solid night on Bouchard’s side against Detroit. That leads Nick to walk back the idea that Ekholm can’t be replaced, though Ekholm still clearly raises Edmonton’s ceiling.
The biggest frustration is how Ike Howard is being used. The former Hobey Baker winner from Michigan State scored his first goal of the season on the power play against Detroit, but he’s still playing about nine minutes a night on the fourth line. Nick argues that playing a skilled scorer like Howard in a grinding role wastes what he is, and that it also lowers his trade value if Edmonton plans to move him. He also points out the double standard: Alex Formenton keeps his spot despite losing board battles, including the Viktor Arvidsson stick-lift that led to Detroit’s goal
04:58 Jarry's confidence and performance struggles
08:05 Ekholm and Bouchard's Dominance
12:54 Playing Ike Howard on 4th Line
13:53 Potential of Ike Howard for Oilers
20:07 Talking hockey gear and promo
23:01 Discussing Oilers' player performance
24:33 Criticism of Formenton's board play
28:02 Oilers relying on star players
Oilers OVERREACTIONS: Is Babcock’s Stubbornness Costing Edmonton it's season?
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