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Heightened risk of renewed US-Iran hostilities following yesterday’s developments. Oil stabilizes and risk appetite remains supported; bitcoin climbed above $80k. RBA hikes but signals pause, pushing aussie lower. Dollar fails to rally on ME headlines; focus shifts to US prints and Fedspeak.
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Trump says US to escort ships trapped in Hormuz but mixed signals on talks. Wall Street at record high as stellar Apple earnings underscore optimism. Palantir, AMD and ARM will be this week’s highlights ahead of NFP report. Yen unable to extend gains despite persisting intervention risks.
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Three-way split at Fed livens up Powell’s last meeting, puts yen in jeopardy. Oil prices jump again as Trump signals impatience with Iran. Stagflation fears overpower equities despite bumper tech earnings. But FX markets largely calm as ECB and BoE decisions awaited.
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Slow progress in US-Iran talks keeps oil price elevated, unaffected by UAE’s OPEC exit. Fed meeting in focus, but all eyes are on key earnings announcements. Expectations for stellar results could trigger a sharp sell-off upon disappointment. BoC to remain in waiting mode; muted loonie reaction expected ahead of US events.
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Investors grow impatient with the slow progress in US-Iran talks. Oil prices edge higher again as the Hormuz Strait remains closed, putting gold under pressure. BoJ did not surprise with a rate hike, but hawkish dissenters keep dollar/yen below 160. Focus shifts to US data calendar and 7-year US auction.
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