Columbia Energy Exchange

It has been a tumultuous 24 hours for the global energy landscape. Yesterday, the United Arab Emirates sent shockwaves through the oil industry by announcing its withdrawal from OPEC, marking a historic break with Saudi Arabia in the midst of the ongoing regional crisis. This move comes as the Strait of Hormuz remains almost entirely shut, with the US intensifying its naval blockade and threatening to cut off major Chinese banks from the US financial system to halt the processing of Iranian oil.
Despite a diplomatic impasse, the physical realities of the market are reaching a breaking point. Brent crude is trading over $118 a barrel, near its wartime highs, and gasoline prices in the US have climbed to an average of $4.22 a gallon—its highest level ​since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war. With the world burning through crude inventories and jet fuel costs in Asia more than doubling since the Iran war began, the oil market appears to be losing hope for a swift reopening of the strait, forcing a painful calibration between dwindling supply and record-high prices.
So, what does a "dysfunctional" OPEC mean for the future of market management without one of its most important shock absorbers? How much of the world's energy infrastructure has been permanently damaged by the conflict? And what does the tipping point for global demand destruction actually look like?
Today on the show, host Daniel Sternoff talks with Yasser Elguindi about the latest developments in the Middle East. They discuss the UAE's motivations for leaving the cartel, the growing dichotomy between physical and futures markets, and how a "post-Hormuz" world will fundamentally reshape the global energy industry. Yasser is a partner and co-portfolio manager at the Westbeck Energy Opportunity Fund and a veteran oil market strategist with over 25 years of experience advising institutional investors through every major market shock of the 21st century.
Credits: Hosted by Daniel Sternoff. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.

In this special episode Jason Bordoff, founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy, sits down with Robin Pomeroy, host of the World Economic Forum podcast, Radio Davos, to talk about the global and likely lasting impacts of the current energy shock.

This episode is a crosspost originally published by Radio Davos.

During the first weeks of the war in Iran, most analysis focused on the immediate energy shock it triggered. To explore the longer-term implications of the conflict, Jason and Meghan O'Sullivan, director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard's Kennedy School, recently co-authored a piece for Foreign Affairs titled, "The Iran Shock, And the Dangerous Allure of Energy Autarky".

Jason joined Robin Pomeroy to discuss the article and how the largest oil supply disruption the world has ever seen is impacting near-term energy security while fundamentally reshaping the future of the industry. (Unfortunately, Meghan O'Sullivan was unable to join the recording due to illness.)

Our thanks to Robin and the World Economic Forum for collaborating with us to share this conversation.

The global order that shaped the past several decades is giving way to a more fragmented and uncertain world. Long-standing alliances are under strain, economic integration is giving way to competition, and geopolitical risk is once again a central driver of markets and policy.

These shifts are not abstract. They are reshaping trade flows, disrupting supply chains, and contributing to volatility in energy markets and the broader economy—affecting everything from fuel prices to the cost of goods.

So, how might great power competition, geopolitical fragmentation, artificial intelligence, and global instability redefine the international landscape? And what will that mean for policymakers, businesses, and the global energy system?

This week's episode features a fireside chat between Jason Bordoff and Ian Bremmer from the Columbia Global Energy Summit 2026, which was hosted by the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA and recorded earlier today.

Jason and Ian examine the Iran crisis, the Islamabad talks, and the shifting dynamics of the Gulf region. They also address the "myth" of sovereign AI, China's strategy, and the deep structural concerns of global CEOs navigating today's volatility.

Ian Bremmer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, a geopolitical risk advisory firm, and GZERO Media, a digital media company providing coverage of international affairs. He is the author of eleven books, including his latest work, The Power of Crisis: How Three Threats—and Our Response—Will Change the World. Ian also teaches at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs.
Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.

It's been a head-spinning day in the Iran war. Earlier today, following a temporary truce between Lebanon and Israel, Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz would be "completely open" to commercial shipping during this ceasefire. Initial reactions from President Donald Trump were optimistic, but that gave way to some confusion about what "open" actually means in practice. The president later clarified that the existing U.S. blockade on Iranian vessels would remain in place.

Despite the confusion, markets responded quickly. Brent crude dropped below $90 a barrel for the first time in weeks, though prices are still meaningfully elevated relative to pre-war levels. Even with the reprieve, much uncertainty looms as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire deadline of next Tuesday, April 21, approaches

So, what does this moment tell us about the future of energy security? How durable is the current ceasefire? And what energy system will this crisis leave behind? 

Today on the show, host Jason Bordoff talks with Amos Hochstein about the recent developments in the Middle East. They discuss the long-term implications of Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz, the war's geopolitical and energy market impacts, and where Amos thinks this conflict is headed in the near and longer term.

Amos served as deputy assistant and senior advisor for energy and investment to President Biden, and as special presidential coordinator for global infrastructure and energy security. He is a managing partner at TWG Global and a distinguished fellow at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs.
Credits: Hosted by Daniel Sternoff. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc

With an April 21 deadline looming, the Middle East remains suspended in a volatile state of war and peace. Regional mediators are scrambling to broker a second round of US-Iran talks before the current two-week ceasefire expires, hoping to narrow gaps over nuclear ambitions and the Strait of Hormuz to buy critical time for a lasting truce.
In this episode of Iran Conflict Brief, Daniel Sternoff is joined by Mohammad Ali Shabani to analyze the shifts in Tehran's decision-making and the precarious future of the current diplomatic reprieve.
Shabani, editor of Amwaj.media and a veteran analyst of Persian Gulf power dynamics, provides a rare look inside the competing circles of influence in Tehran. He and Daniel address a fundamental question: if the regime survives this conflict, can the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp ever pivot away from its "resistance" ideology, or is holding global energy flows hostage now an existential pillar of its survival?
Credits: Hosted by Daniel Sternoff. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.