State of Play

Four years into the war, Ukraine may finally have the upper hand. Will speaks with Max Bergmann and Maria Snegovaya about their recent trip to Kyiv, Ukraine's key advantages, Russia's challenges, and if the shifting balance of power means the war may finally end soon.

Max Bergmann and Maria Snegovaya, "War, Inflation, and Putin's Paranoia: has Russian Public Opinion Begun to Shift?" CSIS, May 14, 2026.

Max Bergmann and Donatienne Ruy, "Reflections from Ukraine, Crisis in the UK, and the EU's Corruption-Fighting Toolkit ft. Kövesi," CSIS, May 22, 2026.

A flurry of diplomatic activity and a reported visit of Xi Jinping to North Korea has heightened speculation that something is afoot. Victor Cha, Tom Christensen, and Edgard Kagan join Will to discuss what these signals indicate, how relations between North Korea and China are shifting, and what a Trump-Kim meeting could achieve.

Victor Cha and Andy Lim, “Can Sports Diplomacy Open a Door on the Korean Peninsula?” CSIS, May 4, 2026.

Edgard Kagan, “Trump-Xi Summit in Beijing: Managing the World’s Most Important Relationship,” CSIS, May 8, 2026.

Under U.S. pressure, Lebanon and Israel recently entered into direct negotiations for the first time in 30 years. This week, Mona Yacoubian and Paul Salem join Will to discuss what each side is hoping to get out of the negotiations, how the talks fit into the broader regional context, and what the prospects for success are.

Paul Salem, “Lebanon and Israel Talks: Empowering Diplomacy Over Open-Ended Conflict,” CSIS, May 14, 2026.

Mona Yacoubian, “Lebanon’s Moment of Reckoning,” Foreign Policy, April 21, 2026.

The U.S.-China summit covered trade, investment, the war with Iran, and Taiwan. Edgard Kagan, Scott Kennedy, and Bonny Lin joined Will to discuss how successful the summit was, what it means for the future of U.S.-China relations, and what we should be watching going forward.

Edgard Kagan and Bonny Lin, “Unpacking President Trump’s Visit to China | State of Play,” CSIS, May 15, 2026.

Scott Kennedy, “A Confident Beijing Welcomes President Trump,” CSIS, May 11, 2026.

North Korea has resisted decades of international denuclearization efforts, including the world’s most crippling sanctions regime. Victor Cha and Sydney Seiler join Will to discuss why U.S. strategy has failed, how the strategic landscape has shifted and increased North Korea's leverage, and what a better strategy would look like.

Victor Cha, “North Korea as It Is: The Case for a Cold Peace,” Foreign Affairs, May/June 2026.

Sydney Seiler, “North Korea in 2026: Intentions, Realities, and Response,” CSIS, February 2, 2026.