UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Shane drops by to recap this week’s primary election outcomes, and shares thoughts on potential outcome scenarios for the November mid-term elections. Plus, a review of Congressional legislative priorities over the next few months, and an update on where negotiations stand to end the US-Iran war. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Andrew Dubinsky, Senior US Economist from the UBS Chief Investment Office, drops by on this jobs Friday to reflect on the May employment report and the overall health of the US labor market. Plus, a preview of next week’s May inflation data, and thoughts on what the inflationary environment could look like in the second half of the year. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US employment report adds a rather unreliable narrative to the US labor market data. Expectations are for a dull report, with an unchanged unemployment rate and a sub-100,000 non-farm payrolls number. However, the range of estimates is particularly scattered. When job creation is this weak, the composition of the workforce may distort the average hourly earnings data without saying anything about wage growth.

Europe is often associated with weaker growth, energy shocks, and geopolitical pressure. But beneath the surface, some of the region’s leading companies are telling a very different story - one of resilience, adaptation, and innovation. In this episode of Across the Pond, hosts Christopher Swann and Belinda Peeters are joined by Rolf Ganter, Head of European Equities, to discuss what is driving the rebound in European corporate profits, why investors may be underestimating the strength of European companies, and which areas may offer opportunities from here.

The Federal Reserve Beige Book’s summary of economic anecdote mentioned “uncertain” and “uncertainty” no fewer than 50 times this month (before tariffs were announced). That is below the uncertainty peak that followed last year’s tariffs, but well above the 14 mentions in May 2024. Uncertainty has a paralyzing effect on business decisions—and the risk is that uncertainty endures.