UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Bond yields and oil prices continue their close relationship. Central banks are supposed to look through an oil price shock as being beyond their control. However, if central banks seemingly care about oil, the only policy remedy is to weaken the non-oil economy, as something they can control. In that case, higher oil prices make it more likely interest rates will have to rise to recession-inducing levels. We are not at that stage, but there are enough oil price comments to have markets contemplating more repressive monetary policies.

Following what was a busy week in both New York and Washington DC, Shane drops by to share some takeaways and reflections on the UN General Assembly, along with the three-day summit involving President Trump and President Xi Jinping of China. Plus, a look at legislative priorities of the US Senate ahead of the midterm elections. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Government Affairs Advisor, Government Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

In the wake of the September FOMC rate-hike, we discuss the implications of a Fed hiking cycle to emerging market assets, including equities and fixed income. We also cover the risks to emerging markets that investors should be mindful of. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China and the US agreed to lower tariffs on USD 30bn of each other’s products. China’s consumers will pay lower taxes when buying camels from the US. US anglers face lower taxes when buying fishhooks from China. The amounts involved are small—USD 30bn represents around two months of the tariff avoidance implied by a comparison of US and China trade data.

AI is advancing quickly, but turning that progress into profits depends on more than better models, with infrastructure availability and business adoption increasingly shaping the investment outlook. This episode explores why strong demand alone may not determine the leaders, how bottlenecks could redirect spending, and where we see the largest opportunities across compute, power, and applications.