UBS On-Air: Market Moves

It is a sad comment on the quality of communication by the US central bank that a single US consumer price inflation number can have so much sway over policy expectations. Single data points should not be relied on to this extent. If today’s data does not produce a US rate hike in September, disinflationary forces may keep rates on hold this year. If rates are raised, a second rate hike would probably follow.

The ECB is almost certain to repeat its earlier policy rate error and unnecessarily raise interest rates. There is unlikely to be any inflation or economic growth impact, but a further rate increase erodes borrowers’ ability to manage future economic crises. This should be the last error, unless oil prices get so high the ECB feels it needs to create a recession in the non-oil economy to create non-oil deflation.

Sunny Mehra, Consumer Strategist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, drops by to provide a health check on the US consumer, including a look a recent spending trends and overall sentiment. Sunny reflects on the 2026 back to school shopping season, and previews how retailers are preparing for the upcoming holidays. Plus, a look at positioning preferences across the US Consumer Discretionary and Staples sectors. Host: Daniel Cassidy

On this week’s episode, we catch up with Burkhard following his recent visit to Hamburg, Germany as he shares takeaways from meetings held with families and their family officers where they discussed family wealth, family governance and generational transfers. Burkhard also recites the poem “IF” and explains how the messaging relates to the art of investing.

China’s August consumer and producer price inflation was slightly higher. The suggestion is not that better demand is driving up prices, but that global inflation forces are being allowed to trickle into domestic pricing.