UBS On-Air: Market Moves

The Federal Reserve is expected to leave rates unchanged today. The Bank of Japan started with an accommodative stance, and has moved toward neutral. The European Central Bank started with a neutral stance, and unnecessarily moved toward a restrictive policy. The Fed started the year with a mildly restrictive policy, and there is no necessity for change.

We discuss the factors behind YTD muni performance relative to other fixed income sectors, against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty, rate volatility, and elevated supply. Plus, a look at opportunities within prepaid gas bonds. Featured are Sudip Mukherjee and Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income Strategists Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

As expected, the Bank of Japan raised rates to 1%, a level last seen in the distance past of 1995. This was a different move from the recent ECB policy error—unlike Europe, Japan began the year with an accommodative monetary stance. The rate increase is part of a process of returning to neutral, and is broadly considered appropriate.

While it was an exciting weekend for sports fans, it was also a notable weekend on the geopolitical front, with the US and Iran having agreed to a deal that will re-open the Strait of Hormuz. We discuss what this means for the markets, along with what investors will watch for during this week’s highly anticipated FOMC meeting. Plus, a review of CIO’s current positioning recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The announcement of an Iran-US deal (to be signed on Friday) has supported risk markets and allowed oil prices to fall moderately. The deal comes before strategic petroleum reserves were exhausted, limiting the economic damage from the war. Iran will not toll shipping through Hormuz for 60 days—after that it is not clear, but tolls are not likely to be a major economic cost.