The Wall Street Skinny

• The Math of Predicting (and Profiting from) the Future: from Cat Bonds to Hedge Funds | Sarah Kapnick, Head of Climate Advisory at J.P. Morgan

  Send us a textSarah Kapnick literally trained under John Nash at Princeton, went from structuring catastrophe bonds at Goldman during Hurricane Katrina, to serving as Chief Scientist at NOAA, and is now Global Head of Climate Advisory at JPMorgan. She’s part mathematician, part climate scientist, part Wall Street insider – and the godmother of The Wall Street Skinny, the person who first convinced Jen to go into finance. This interview has been two and a half years in the making, and it’s easily one of the most full-circle, “how is this one person real?” conversations we’ve ever had.We get into the math of predicting the future: how fluid dynamics and game theory show up in Black-Scholes, what “1-in-100 year events” actually mean over a 30-year mortgage, and why climate risk isn’t a political side quest but a massive driver of returns, insurance pricing, and portfolio construction. Sarah explains cat bonds in plain English, walks through physical vs. transition risk, and connects wildfires, hurricanes, nuclear, fusion, and geothermal to the way capital is being allocated right now. If you care about making or losing money over the next few decades, this is not optional listening.We also talk mentorship, careers, and what it looks like to build a non-linear, insanely high-impact path across science, government, and Wall Street while raising a young family. Sarah shares how she decides when to leave a prestigious job, what she tells the next generation of math and science nerds curious about finance, and how she translates hardcore climate science for CEOs, investors, and ultra-high-net-worth clients. Even if you think “climate isn’t for me,” this episode will change how you think about risk, opportunity, and the future.Learn more about 9fin HERE Shop our Self Paced Courses: Investment Banking & Private Equity Fundamentals HEREFixed Income Sales & Trading HERE Wealthfront.com/wss. This is a paid endorsement for Wealthfront. May not reflect others’ experiences. Similar outcomes not guaranteed. Wealthfront Brokerage is not a bank. Rate subject to change. Promo terms apply. If eligible for the boosted rate of 4.15% offered in connection with this promo, the boosted rate is also subject to change if base rate decreases during the 3 month promo period.The Cash Account, which is not a deposit account, is offered by Wealthfront Brokerage LLC ("Wealthfront Brokerage"), Member FINRA/SIPC. Wealthfront Brokerage is not a bank. The Annual Percentage Yield ("APY") on cash deposits as of 11/7/25, is representative, requires no minimum, and may change at any time. The APY reflects the weighted average of deposit balances at participating Program Banks, which are not allocated equally. Wealthfront Brokerage sweeps cash balances to Program Banks, where they earn the variable APY. Sources HERE.

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• HBO's about to be owned by Netflix!? Breaking Down the Netflix / Warner Brothers $72Bn M&A Deal

  Send us a textThis week Kristen and Jen break down the blockbuster Netflix–Warner Bros. deal. Netflix has agreed to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery’s studio and streaming assets — HBO, Max, Warner Bros. Studios, and its iconic content library — for $27.75 per share in a cash and stock deal. But before the deal closes, Warner Bros. will spin off its cable networks (CNN, TBS, Discovery Channel, and more) into a separate company. That means Netflix is only buying the good stuff — no legacy cable attached.This episode dives into the complex mechanics behind the transaction: how the spin-off works, what a "collar" means in M&A land, and why this $72 billion equity offer came with a surprisingly low premium. Also: there was a whole bidding war behind the scenes. Paramount / Skydance wanted to buy the entire company. Comcast and Netflix were just after the streaming assets and studio business. Why did Netflix win? What happens next? And will this deal reshape the future of streaming as we know it? This episode is a full M&A teach-in wrapped in an entertainment headline — and yes, we also talk about Industry coming back soon.Learn more about 9fin HEREShop our Self Paced Courses: Investment Banking & Private Equity Fundamentals HEREFixed Income Sales & Trading HERE Wealthfront.com/wss. This is a paid endorsement for Wealthfront. May not reflect others’ experiences. Similar outcomes not guaranteed. Wealthfront Brokerage is not a bank. Rate subject to change. Promo terms apply. If eligible for the boosted rate of 4.15% offered in connection with this promo, the boosted rate is also subject to change if base rate decreases during the 3 month promo period.The Cash Account, which is not a deposit account, is offered by Wealthfront Brokerage LLC ("Wealthfront Brokerage"), Member FINRA/SIPC. Wealthfront Brokerage is not a bank. The Annual Percentage Yield ("APY") on cash deposits as of 11/7/25, is representative, requires no minimum, and may change at any time. The APY reflects the weighted average of deposit balances at participating Program Banks, which are not allocated equally. Wealthfront Brokerage sweeps cash balances to Program Banks, where they earn the variable APY. Sources HERE.

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• Michael Burry Accuses Meta + Oracle of AI Accounting Fraud...Legit? Depreciation & Valuation Masterclass

  Send us a textIn this episode of The Skinny on Wall Street, Kristen and Jen unpack the story stirring up markets: Michael Burry’s latest warning that Big Tech is overstating earnings by extending the “useful life” assumptions on their GPUs. The conversation becomes a real-time teach-in on depreciation, useful life estimates, GAAP vs. tax depreciation, and how a small shift in an accounting estimate can meaningfully inflate EPS—especially for mega-cap tech stocks that trade heavily on P/E multiples. Kristen walks through exactly how depreciation affects valuation, and why some metrics (like EBITDA) and methodologies (like the DCF) are untouched by the choice of useful life. The big question the duo wrestle with: is Burry identifying a real risk, or is this a nothingburger amplified by market paranoia? From there, Jen shifts to the fixed income landscape ahead of the December Fed meeting—one the central bank must navigate without key data (payrolls and CPI) that won’t arrive until after the rate decision. She breaks down how Powell is managing optionality near the end of his term, how the market is pricing a December cut, and what a likely dovish successor (Kevin Hassett) could mean for rates in 2026. They also dig into credit markets: years of high coupons have fueled relentless reinvestment demand, but an uptick in issuance—especially from AI-heavy hyperscalers—may finally rebalance supply and demand. The duo look abroad as well, analyzing the UK’s newly announced national property tax and what it signals about global fiscal stress.The episode wraps with big updates from The Wall Street Skinny: the long-awaited launch of their Financial Modeling Course, the continued fixed income course presale, and new January 2026 office hours, plus the return date for HBO’s Industry (January 11!). To get 25% off all our self paced courses, use code BLACKFRIDAY25 at checkout!Learn more about 9fin HERE Shop our Self Paced Courses: Investment Banking & Private Equity Fundamentals HEREFixed Income Sales & Trading HERE Wealthfront.com/wss. This is a paid endorsement for Wealthfront. May not reflect others’ experiences. Similar outcomes not guaranteed. Wealthfront Brokerage is not a bank. Rate subject to change. Promo terms apply. If eligible for the boosted rate of 4.15% offered in connection with this promo, the boosted rate is also subject to change if base rate decreases during the 3 month promo period.The Cash Account, which is not a deposit account, is offered by Wealthfront Brokerage LLC ("Wealthfront Brokerage"), Member FINRA/SIPC. Wealthfront Brokerage is not a bank. The Annual Percentage Yield ("APY") on cash deposits as of 11/7/25, is representative, requires no minimum, and may change at any time. The APY reflects the weighted average of deposit balances at participating Program Banks, which are not allocated equally. Wealthfront Brokerage sweeps cash balances to Program Banks, where they earn the variable APY. Sources HERE.

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• Is the AI Bubble about to Burst? Plus: Fed Questions, Crypto Collapse, and 50-Year Mortgages

  Send us a textOn this episode, we're talking about AI, the Fed, crypto, and housing --- and how those stories all suddenly collided this week. Nvidia’s huge earnings beat briefly sent markets higher, but the rally fizzled fast as investors grew more anxious about a potential AI bubble. We walk through why valuations increasingly assume massive job displacement and unprecedented productivity gains, and why Oracle has become the market’s “AI downside” hedge as its stock price collapses and its credit spreads blow out.Zooming out to the macro picture: delayed economic data finally hit, with job growth surprising to the upside, suggesting the Fed might not be delivering a December cut after all. Combine that with softening AI sentiment, and we’re seeing a classic risk-off move: equities selling and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin showing the most stress. Even though headline data looks fine, the real-world "vibes" (sorry, couldn't help ourselves) feel recessionary, with people struggling to find jobs while prices (especially housing prices) remain painfully high.That leads us into the debate over 50-year mortgages. We explain why extending mortgages just means paying interest for decades, barely building equity, and ultimately bidding home prices even higher. The idea of a transferable 50-year mortgage makes even LESS sense. It breaks basic collateral math and would require higher rates, not lower, to actually facilitate implementation. Sign up for our FREE LIVE Excel & Financial Modeling Masterclass here: https://courses.thewallstreetskinny.com/Nov2025-FMmasterclass-registration-page-1Learn more about 9fin HERE Shop our Self Paced Courses: Investment Banking & Private Equity Fundamentals HEREFixed Income Sales & Trading HERE Wealthfront.com/wss. This is a paid endorsement for Wealthfront. May not reflect others’ experiences. Similar outcomes not guaranteed. Wealthfront Brokerage is not a bank. Rate subject to change. Promo terms apply. If eligible for the boosted rate of 4.15% offered in connection with this promo, the boosted rate is also subject to change if base rate decreases during the 3 month promo period.The Cash Account, which is not a deposit account, is offered by Wealthfront Brokerage LLC ("Wealthfront Brokerage"), Member FINRA/SIPC. Wealthfront Brokerage is not a bank. The Annual Percentage Yield ("APY") on cash deposits as of 11/7/25, is representative, requires no minimum, and may change at any time. The APY reflects the weighted average of deposit balances at participating Program Banks, which are not allocated equally. Wealthfront Brokerage sweeps cash balances to Program Banks, where they earn the variable APY. Sources HERE.

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• Distressed Debt 101 with the GOAT: Michael Gatto, Author of "The Credit Investor’s Handbook"

  Send us a textWe’re almost 200 episodes in, and we’ve been waiting for the perfect guest to come on to explain distressed debt investing... the wait is over. In this episode, we’re joined by Michael Gatto, who quite literally wrote the book on credit with The Credit Investor’s Handbook, and serves as the head of private side investing (private markets) at Silver Point, a $41 billion credit asset management firm. With private credit dominating headlines for all the wrong reasons - fraud, liquidations like Tri-Color, and restructurings like First Brands - we use this conversation to ask: what actually happens when private credit deals go sideways?Michael walks us through the world of distressed debt investing: what it is, how it differs from value equity and private equity, and why phrases like “liability management exercises” are just a sanitized way to describe creditor-on-creditor violence. We talk through the mechanics of LMEs, getting J-screwed, up-tiering, CLOs, covenant-lite loans, and how “too much money chasing too few deals” set the stage for today’s blow-ups. He also explains why the press loves calling distressed investors vultures, why he thinks they’re often actually the heroes of the story, and how distressed funds can end up owning companies outright through bankruptcy.We also zoom out to the bigger picture: where we are in the credit cycle, why private credit has grown so explosively since 2008, and why Michael thinks some funds are absolutely going to blow up—but the system won’t. He shares red flags from situations like First Brands and why the current ratio is a joke. Along the way, we get Michael’s incredible career story (including how he negotiated his way into Goldman via a temp agency), his philosophy on learning, mentorship, and networking, and practical advice for anyone curious about private credit, distressed debt, or building a career in credit investing.Learn more about 9fin HERE Shop our Self Paced Courses: Investment Banking & Private Equity Fundamentals HEREFixed Income Sales & Trading HERE Wealthfront.com/wss. This is a paid endorsement for Wealthfront. May not reflect others’ experiences. Similar outcomes not guaranteed. Wealthfront Brokerage is not a bank. Rate subject to change. Promo terms apply. If eligible for the boosted rate of 4.15% offered in connection with this promo, the boosted rate is also subject to change if base rate decreases during the 3 month promo period.The Cash Account, which is not a deposit account, is offered by Wealthfront Brokerage LLC ("Wealthfront Brokerage"), Member FINRA/SIPC. Wealthfront Brokerage is not a bank. The Annual Percentage Yield ("APY") on cash deposits as of 11/7/25, is representative, requires no minimum, and may change at any time. The APY reflects the weighted average of deposit balances at participating Program Banks, which are not allocated equally. Wealthfront Brokerage sweeps cash balances to Program Banks, where they earn the variable APY. Sources HERE.

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