The Chuck ToddCast

Chuck Todd breaks down a primary night that scrambled the Senate map, starting in Michigan where Abdul El-Sayed edged Rep. Haley Stevens by roughly 20,000 votes — overcoming a nearly 8-to-1 spending disadvantage in what became the most expensive Senate primary in American history. He argues the narrow margin was actually the best thing that could have happened to El-Sayed, and while Michigan is now a harder general election for Democrats against Mike Rogers, El-Sayed can absolutely win it. The most fascinating data point buried in the results: El-Sayed carried Grand Rapids and Kent County, a place that was solidly Republican for decades, evidence that there's a growing white progressive vote reshaping the Midwest. He pushes back on the sloppy way analysts label party factions, preferring "movement" versus "governing" factions to the usual progressive-moderate shorthand, notes that electability is always situational, and cautions that money makes races competitive without guaranteeing wins. He flags that Wisconsin is now the next big test, where nobody should assume Francesca Hong runs away with it. He also spotlights results that flew under the radar: pastor Adam Hamilton beat ten other Democrats to become nominee Republicans will struggle to caricature against Roger Marshall, meaning Kansas joins Iowa as a genuine pickup opportunity in a cycle where Trump's tariffs have wrecked agricultural states. Republicans, meanwhile, leaned into Islamophobia against El-Sayed on day one, which Chuck suspects could badly boomerang. He argues the GOP would love to be rid of Max Miller, whose personal issues could drag down Bernie Moreno, though even replacing him may cost the GOP three to five points — and closes on the surreal spectacle of a president losing an increasingly global war while obsessing over his reflecting pool: Jeanine Pirro thought she could say one thing publicly and another in court, Trump says she "choked" when really she choked on reality, and Chuck’s read is that Trump wanted a headline more than a case, may be lashing out precisely because he's lost control of everything else, is desperate to get out of Iran, and might find that handing over the Strait is the least humiliating option left — all while his grip on his own voters keeps weakening.
Finally Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 most vulnerable Democratic seats… and couldn’t make it to 5. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.

Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
04:45 Review of Tuesday’s primary results
05:30 Michigan now harder for Dems in general, but El-Sayed can win
06:30 Wisconsin primary will be next big test of divide in Democratic party
08:45 Almost losing was the best thing that could have happened to El-Sayed
09:30 Republicans don’t have many senate pickup opportunities
11:30 El-Sayed’s winning margin will be less than 20k votes
13:00 El-Sayed won the race in Grand Rapids
14:15 Kent county was solidly Republican for decades
16:30 The moderate/Gerald Ford Republicans aren’t voting for the GOP
17:30 There’s a growing white, progressive vote
19:45 In 2016 many people voted for Bernie out of protest for Clinton
20:30 Fascinating that Grand Rapids became a progressive stronghold
23:00 Analysts have a hard time characterizing factions inside parties
23:45 Prefer the label of “movement” vs. “governing” factions
24:45 Electability depends on the state and the situation
25:15 Money makes races more competitive, doesn’t guarantee victory
27:30 Progressives will need a crowded primary in 2028 to win
29:15 Don’t assume Francesca Hong will run away in Dem primary in WI
31:45 Big questions loom over Wisconsin primary
33:15 Some big results in Kansas flew under the radar
34:45 Founders didn’t want judges to be elected & subject to voters
35:15 Kansas rejected elections for state Supreme Court
36:30 On day one, Republicans leaned into Islamophobia against El-Sayed
37:00 The Islamophobia could boomerang on Republicans
37:45 Dems keep putting more senate seats in play, Kansas is now one
38:15 Adam Hamilton is pastor of huge church in Kansas\
39:00 Hamilton has been a bridge builder, and beat 10 other Dems
39:45 Republicans will have a hard time making a caricature of Hamilton
40:30 Hamilton will have an unusual constituency going into the race
41:30 Roger Marshall has never had a stress test in a general election
43:00 Trump’s tariffs have caused huge problems in agriculture states
44:30 Iowa and Kansas are real pickup chances for Democrats
46:00 Missouri voters sent a message on the issue of taxes
46:45 Trump has long wanted to scrap income taxes
47:30 Voters reject a high sales tax replacing income tax
49:00 Tax credits for the KC Chiefs stadium was a political loser
49:30 Voters don’t like subsidizing rich people
50:00 More stories of Republican men behaving badly
50:15 Republicans would love to get rid of Max Miller
50:45 Trump always sides with the accused over the women
51:30 Max Miller has serious personal issues
52:45 Miller could have hurt Bernie Moreno politically
53:45 Multiple disgraced former members of congress in same race in Florida
55:00 Even if Miller is replaced, the party could face a 3-5 point penalty
55:45 Iran war is going sideways & Trump is worried about Reflecting Pool
56:30 Jeanine Pirro thought she could say one thing in public & another in court
57:15 Trump says she “choked”... she choked on reality
58:00 Trump doesn’t care the facts didn’t meet the case, wanted a headline
58:30 Maybe he’s angry because he’s lost control of everything else, like Iran
59:30 Trump is desperate to get out of the war
1:00:30 Chance of the war going global is uncomfortably high
1:01:30 Trump handing over the Strait might be least humiliating option
1:02:00 Reflecting pool may be the thing Trump feels he has control over
1:02:45 Trump’s grip on his voters has weakened
1:08:00 ToddCast Top 5 Vulnerable Democratic Held Seats
1:10:45 #1 Kansas governor
1:12:15 #2 Michigan senate
1:14:00 #3 Oregon governor
1:15:15 #4 Wisconsin governor
1:16:45 #5 None - There aren’t that many vulnerable Dem seats
1:19:45 Ask Chuck
1:20:00 Is presidential health the only thing an administration can hide?
1:23:30 Thoughts on the World Cup & sportsmanship displayed?
1:25:00 Thoughts on the Fauci hearings?
1:32:00 Do bipartisan letters to the White House actually work?
1:34:30 Has politics discouraged a better investigation into the Butler shooting?
1:38:45 Does growing physical separation between public & leaders heighten their bubble?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd breaks down a primary night that scrambled the Senate map, starting in Michigan where Abdul El-Sayed edged Rep. Haley Stevens by roughly 20,000 votes — overcoming a nearly 8-to-1 spending disadvantage in what became the most expensive Senate primary in American history. He argues the narrow margin was actually the best thing that could have happened to El-Sayed, and while Michigan is now a harder general election for Democrats against Mike Rogers, El-Sayed can absolutely win it. The most fascinating data point buried in the results: El-Sayed carried Grand Rapids and Kent County, a place that was solidly Republican for decades, evidence that there's a growing white progressive vote reshaping the Midwest. He pushes back on the sloppy way analysts label party factions, preferring "movement" versus "governing" factions to the usual progressive-moderate shorthand, notes that electability is always situational, and cautions that money makes races competitive without guaranteeing wins. He flags that Wisconsin is now the next big test, where nobody should assume Francesca Hong runs away with it. He also spotlights results that flew under the radar: pastor Adam Hamilton beat ten other Democrats to become nominee Republicans will struggle to caricature against Roger Marshall, meaning Kansas joins Iowa as a genuine pickup opportunity in a cycle where Trump's tariffs have wrecked agricultural states. Republicans, meanwhile, leaned into Islamophobia against El-Sayed on day one, which Chuck suspects could badly boomerang. He argues the GOP would love to be rid of Max Miller, whose personal issues could drag down Bernie Moreno, though even replacing him may cost the GOP three to five points — and closes on the surreal spectacle of a president losing an increasingly global war while obsessing over his reflecting pool: Jeanine Pirro thought she could say one thing publicly and another in court, Trump says she "choked" when really she choked on reality, and Chuck’s read is that Trump wanted a headline more than a case, may be lashing out precisely because he's lost control of everything else, is desperate to get out of Iran, and might find that handing over the Strait is the least humiliating option left — all while his grip on his own voters keeps weakening.
Then, writer-director Michael Russell Gunn joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss The Brink of War, his feature debut about the 1986 Reykjavík Summit, hitting theaters August 14th with Jeff Daniels as Reagan, Jared Harris as Gorbachev, and J.K. Simmons as George Shultz. The film's origin story is its own remarkable piece of history: Gunn interviewed Shultz before his death in 2021, and Shultz handed him the declassified summit transcripts that became the script — the first scene between Reagan and Gorbachev is verbatim from that record. Gunn's argument for why this story matters right now is simple and pointed: these were two men with every reason to hate each other who sat in a room and tried to build a better world, at a moment when Americans have gotten very good at yelling and very bad at talking. He walks Chuck through what most people get wrong about Reykjavík — that Gorbachev was far younger than memory suggests, with no personal recollection of World War II (he brought the last WWII-era Soviet general with him to Iceland), that adversaries are always more politically divided internally than we perceive from the outside, and that the summit is simultaneously remembered as a triumph and a failure because a deal to eliminate every nuclear weapon on earth collapsed over a single word. Gunn notes that Americans instinctively read everything through game theory — winners and losers — while the Soviets understood the talks as one point on a longer arc, which is why Gorbachev rushed to a press conference to declare the whole thing a success.
The conversation also works as a genuinely useful look inside how difficult political history gets made in Hollywood. Gunn explains that he assembled the actors and script first and only then went to a studio, that Simmons was hunting for a real challenge and nailed Shultz's accent on the first take, and that Daniels prepared by looping an hour of Reagan interviews through his headphones while biking around Chelsea, Michigan. He talks about the nervousness surrounding the idea of putting the two leaders alone in a room, the enormous goodwill Reagan carried into Reykjavík, and the fact that the whole world genuinely waited on that weekend with bated breath. Gunn is candid about the projects that didn't happen (he wanted to make a film about the Nunn-Lugar amendment and couldn't get it off the ground), the tradeoffs between film and limited series as formats, and why audiences have proven far hungrier for true history than the industry assumes. He and Chuck close on career advice — how Gunn broke in, why you have to "prove it" before anyone green-lights your dream project, and his observation that the things you don't get can end up mattering just as much as the things you do. And for anyone tempted to write off Reykjavík as a failure: the summit paved the way for the INF Treaty a year later, and the world's nuclear arsenals have since come down roughly 90%.
Finally Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 most vulnerable Democratic seats… and couldn’t make it to 5. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST
for 30% off your first order.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.

Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
04:45 Review of Tuesday’s primary results
05:30 Michigan now harder for Dems in general, but El-Sayed can win
06:30 Wisconsin primary will be next big test of divide in Democratic party
08:45 Almost losing was the best thing that could have happened to El-Sayed
09:30 Republicans don’t have many senate pickup opportunities
11:30 El-Sayed’s winning margin will be less than 20k votes
13:00 El-Sayed won the race in Grand Rapids
14:15 Kent county was solidly Republican for decades
16:30 The moderate/Gerald Ford Republicans aren’t voting for the GOP
17:30 There’s a growing white, progressive vote
19:45 In 2016 many people voted for Bernie out of protest for Clinton
20:30 Fascinating that Grand Rapids became a progressive stronghold
23:00 Analysts have a hard time characterizing factions inside parties
23:45 Prefer the label of “movement” vs. “governing” factions
24:45 Electability depends on the state and the situation
25:15 Money makes races more competitive, doesn’t guarantee victory
27:30 Progressives will need a crowded primary in 2028 to win
29:15 Don’t assume Francesca Hong will run away in Dem primary in WI
31:45 Big questions loom over Wisconsin primary
33:15 Some big results in Kansas flew under the radar
34:45 Founders didn’t want judges to be elected & subject to voters
35:15 Kansas rejected elections for state Supreme Court
36:30 On day one, Republicans leaned into Islamophobia against El-Sayed
37:00 The Islamophobia could boomerang on Republicans
37:45 Dems keep putting more senate seats in play, Kansas is now one
38:15 Adam Hamilton is pastor of huge church in Kansas\
39:00 Hamilton has been a bridge builder, and beat 10 other Dems
39:45 Republicans will have a hard time making a caricature of Hamilton
40:30 Hamilton will have an unusual constituency going into the race
41:30 Roger Marshall has never had a stress test in a general election
43:00 Trump’s tariffs have caused huge problems in agriculture states
44:30 Iowa and Kansas are real pickup chances for Democrats
46:00 Missouri voters sent a message on the issue of taxes
46:45 Trump has long wanted to scrap income taxes
47:30 Voters reject a high sales tax replacing income tax
49:00 Tax credits for the KC Chiefs stadium was a political loser
49:30 Voters don’t like subsidizing rich people
50:00 More stories of Republican men behaving badly
50:15 Republicans would love to get rid of Max Miller
50:45 Trump always sides with the accused over the women
51:30 Max Miller has serious personal issues
52:45 Miller could have hurt Bernie Moreno politically
53:45 Multiple disgraced former members of congress in same race in Florida
55:00 Even if Miller is replaced, the party could face a 3-5 point penalty
55:45 Iran war is going sideways & Trump is worried about Reflecting Pool
56:30 Jeanine Pirro thought she could say one thing in public & another in court
57:15 Trump says she “choked”... she choked on reality
58:00 Trump doesn’t care the facts didn’t meet the case, wanted a headline
58:30 Maybe he’s angry because he’s lost control of everything else, like Iran
59:30 Trump is desperate to get out of the war
1:00:30 Chance of the war going global is uncomfortably high
1:01:30 Trump handing over the Strait might be least humiliating option
1:02:00 Reflecting pool may be the thing Trump feels he has control over
1:02:45 Trump’s grip on his voters has weakened
1:10:00 Michael Russell Gunn (The Brink of War) joins the Chuck ToddCast
1:12:30 How much time should elapse before telling a historical story?
1:14:45 How strong was Gorbachev viewed at the time of the summits?
1:15:30 We were saved by junior people/officers during the Cold War
1:16:00 We came very close to nuclear armageddon
1:17:30 Gorbachev is remembered as older than he actually was
1:18:30 Gorbachev didn’t have any memory of World War 2
1:19:30 Gorbachev brought last WW2 era general to Reykjavik
1:21:15 Adversaries are more politically divided than we perceive them
1:22:00 Reykjavik is considered both a success and a failure
1:22:30 There was a deal to get rid of every nuke, one word tanked it
1:23:00 Gorbachev rushed to a press conference to declare conference “great”
1:23:45 Reagan and Gorbachev built a relationship and some trust
1:24:15 This was one of the greatest diplomatic achievements in history
1:25:00 Americans view everything in a game theory context, winners & losers
1:25:30 Soviets viewed talks as one point in an arc
1:26:00 Transcripts of the meeting helped in creating the movie
1:28:00 Wanted to create a movie about the Nunn-Lugar amendment, but couldn’t
1:29:30 Visual of Reagan sitting across from Gorbachev was powerful
1:30:45 First scene between Reagan and Gorbachev was verbatim from transcript
1:32:30 There was something profound about their willingness to engage
1:34:15 There was nervousness about having them alone in a room
1:35:45 Reagan carried immense goodwill from Americans into Reykjavik
1:37:45 The whole world was waiting/watching the summit with bated breath
1:38:30 How close were we to getting rid of nuclear weapons?
1:39:30 We did end up reducing nuclear arsenals by 90%
1:40:00 How did Jeff Daniels prepare to play Reagan?
1:41:45 Difficulty getting mainstream actors to participate in political history?
1:42:30 How’d you pull off getting a difficult topic approved and made?
1:43:15 Got the actors and script first, then went to the studio
1:44:00 JK Simmons was looking for a real challenge
1:45:15 George Shultz is an unsung hero of American history
1:46:00 JK Simmons nailed Shultz's accent on the first take
1:47:45 You’re given more breadth in film, but not more time to produce it
1:50:30 What is the better format to tell a story? Movie, limited series etc.
1:53:00 Audiences have proven to be hungry for true history stories
1:55:15 What’s your dream project?
1:56:30 Need to “prove it” in order to get your dream project approved
1:59:15 Career advice? How did you break in and succeed in the business?
2:00:45 Things you don’t get can be just as important as what you do get
2:02:00 ToddCast Top 5 Vulnerable Democratic Held Seats
2:04:45 #1 Kansas governor
2:06:15 #2 Michigan senate
2:08:00 #3 Oregon governor
2:09:15 #4 Wisconsin governor
2:10:45 #5 None - There aren’t that many vulnerable Dem seats
2:13:45 Ask Chuck
2:14:00 Is presidential health the only thing an administration can hide?
2:17:30 Thoughts on the World Cup & sportsmanship displayed?
2:19:00 Thoughts on the Fauci hearings?
2:26:00 Do bipartisan letters to the White House actually work?
2:28:30 Has politics discouraged a better investigation into the Butler shooting?
2:32:45 Does growing physical separation between public & leaders heighten their bubble?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Writer-director Michael Russell Gunn joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss The Brink of War, his feature debut about the 1986 Reykjavík Summit, hitting theaters August 14th with Jeff Daniels as Reagan, Jared Harris as Gorbachev, and J.K. Simmons as George Shultz. The film's origin story is its own remarkable piece of history: Gunn interviewed Shultz before his death in 2021, and Shultz handed him the declassified summit transcripts that became the script — the first scene between Reagan and Gorbachev is verbatim from that record. Gunn's argument for why this story matters right now is simple and pointed: these were two men with every reason to hate each other who sat in a room and tried to build a better world, at a moment when Americans have gotten very good at yelling and very bad at talking. He walks Chuck through what most people get wrong about Reykjavík — that Gorbachev was far younger than memory suggests, with no personal recollection of World War II (he brought the last WWII-era Soviet general with him to Iceland), that adversaries are always more politically divided internally than we perceive from the outside, and that the summit is simultaneously remembered as a triumph and a failure because a deal to eliminate every nuclear weapon on earth collapsed over a single word. Gunn notes that Americans instinctively read everything through game theory — winners and losers — while the Soviets understood the talks as one point on a longer arc, which is why Gorbachev rushed to a press conference to declare the whole thing a success.
The conversation also works as a genuinely useful look inside how difficult political history gets made in Hollywood. Gunn explains that he assembled the actors and script first and only then went to a studio, that Simmons was hunting for a real challenge and nailed Shultz's accent on the first take, and that Daniels prepared by looping an hour of Reagan interviews through his headphones while biking around Chelsea, Michigan. He talks about the nervousness surrounding the idea of putting the two leaders alone in a room, the enormous goodwill Reagan carried into Reykjavík, and the fact that the whole world genuinely waited on that weekend with bated breath. Gunn is candid about the projects that didn't happen (he wanted to make a film about the Nunn-Lugar amendment and couldn't get it off the ground), the tradeoffs between film and limited series as formats, and why audiences have proven far hungrier for true history than the industry assumes. He and Chuck close on career advice — how Gunn broke in, why you have to "prove it" before anyone green-lights your dream project, and his observation that the things you don't get can end up mattering just as much as the things you do. And for anyone tempted to write off Reykjavík as a failure: the summit paved the way for the INF Treaty a year later, and the world's nuclear arsenals have since come down roughly 90%.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Michael Russell Gunn (The Brink of War) joins the Chuck ToddCast
02:30 How much time should elapse before telling a historical story?
04:45 How strong was Gorbachev viewed at the time of the summits?
05:30 We were saved by junior people/officers during the Cold War
06:00 We came very close to nuclear armageddon
07:30 Gorbachev is remembered as older than he actually was
08:30 Gorbachev didn’t have any memory of World War 2
09:30 Gorbachev brought last WW2 era general to Reykjavik
11:15 Adversaries are more politically divided than we perceive them
12:00 Reykjavik is considered both a success and a failure
12:30 There was a deal to get rid of every nuke, one word tanked it
13:00 Gorbachev rushed to a press conference to declare conference “great”
13:45 Reagan and Gorbachev built a relationship and some trust
14:15 This was one of the greatest diplomatic achievements in history
15:00 Americans view everything in a game theory context, winners & losers
15:30 Soviets viewed talks as one point in an arc
16:00 Transcripts of the meeting helped in creating the movie
18:00 Wanted to create a movie about the Nunn-Lugar amendment, but couldn’t
19:30 Visual of Reagan sitting across from Gorbachev was powerful
20:45 First scene between Reagan and Gorbachev was verbatim from transcript
22:30 There was something profound about their willingness to engage
24:15 There was nervousness about having them alone in a room
25:45 Reagan carried immense goodwill from Americans into Reykjavik
27:45 The whole world was waiting/waiting the summit with bated breath
28:30 How close were we to getting rid of nuclear weapons?
29:30 We did end up reducing nuclear arsenals by 90%
30:00 How did Jeff Daniels prepare to play Reagan?
31:45 Difficulty getting mainstream actors to participate in political history?
32:30 How’d you pull off getting a difficult topic approved and made?
33:15 Got the actors and script first, then went to the studio
34:00 JK Simmons was looking for a real challenge
35:15 George Shultz is an unsung hero of American history
36:00 JK Simmons nailed Shultz's accent on the first take
37:45 You’re given more breadth in film, but not more time to produce it
40:30 What is the better format to tell a story? Movie, limited series etc
43:00 Audiences have proven to be hungry for true history stories
45:15 What’s your dream project?
46:30 Need to “prove it” in order to get your dream project approved
49:15 Career advice? How did you break in and succeed in the business?
50:45 Things you don’t get can be just as important as what you do get
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza burn the midnight oil for a rare Wednesday drop, breaking down a Michigan Senate primary that became the most expensive Democratic Senate primary contest in U.S. history and a genuine proxy war over the party's future. With Abdul El-Sayed leading Haley Stevens by a far narrower margin than the polling suggested, the guys unpack why Michigan is so hard to poll, why Black voters are routinely under-sampled in primary surveys, and what it says that the Whitmer-and-labor-backed machine kept this close — a double-digit El-Sayed win, Chuck argues, would have been a genuine indictment of the establishment. They then game out the general: why Republicans will now dump money into Michigan they'd never have spent against Stevens, why an Islamophobic campaign against El-Sayed could backfire spectacularly, and why the stakes for the progressive movement in 2028 are enormous either way. Plus: how the county-by-county map becomes a strategic document for every 2028 campaign now that Michigan sits in the early window.
From there they widen the lens to the sleeper races nobody's watching — Kansas, where megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton emerged from a crowded Democratic field and will face Republican incumbent Roger Marshall in November, plus South Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa, where tariffs, deportations, and the ag economy have made supposedly safe seats interesting. They dig into the ugly Max Miller saga in Ohio ahead of the ballot deadline, why Trump's refusal to push him out is grimly consistent, and the human cost to a family caught in the middle. Then it's a bracing riff on whether Trump actually wants any Republican not named Trump to win in 2028, bearish takes on Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris, a Chuck rant about why abolishing the Senate and packing the Court is magical thinking, and a closing lament about the Nats' fire sale.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 A swing state picks its most liberal Senate nominee ever
00:41 Why Michigan polling is almost always wrong
00:59 The under-polled Black vote and why this race stayed close
01:48 Stevens had the machine — labor, Whitmer, and Wayne County
02:11 Double-digit El-Sayed win is an indictment of the establishment
03:18 The Bernie problem
05:18 Republicans will now spend far more against El-Sayed
05:44 Big money got rejected
06:29 Mike Rogers has never been a great fundraiser
07:16 This is now the only real Republican pickup opportunity
08:16 Maine goes regional — and why Collins is in big trouble
09:20 A loss is a body blow to the progressive movement
13:57 Why they held the episode until Wednesday
14:22 To Kansas: Adam Hamilton, wins the Democratic primary
15:15 Cook moves the race to Likely Republican
16:36 School funding, Johnson County & the issue also lifting Rob Sand
17:49 From anti-Brownback coalition to an actual Democratic Party
18:35 Why South Dakota, Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas are all suddenly live

19:16 Is MAGA angry enough at Thune to punish Rounds?
20:13 Tariffs and deportations have hammered the ag economy
20:38 Nebraska's hard ceiling vs. Kansas's higher ceiling
22:26 Which is closer in November — Kansas or Nebraska?
23:29 Why the Islamophobia play could backfire
24:29 Republicans' $300M advantage and where they'll actually spend it
27:27 Governing wing vs. movement wing
28:02 Why AOC engaged in Michigan but never for Graham Platner
29:03 The nationalization test: Talarico-Paxton or El-Sayed-Rogers?
32:41 The Max Miller deadline
33:38 Why the orchestrated exit didn't happen
34:00 Bernie Moreno, his daughter, and the family at the center of it
36:31 Why this is arguably bigger than the Platner story
38:52 Trump doesn't close the deal
39:53 Trump never accepts assault allegations as disqualifying
40:15 Trump puts himself before the party, always
41:06 Will he actually spend the MAGA Inc. money?
41:52 Trump doesn't want Vance or Rubio to win in 2028
43:41 Don Jr.'s changing online behavior — and what it might signal
45:05 Guilfoyle, Newsom & the weirdest political fact in America
45:31 Bearish on Gavin Newsom
47:38 Harris on abolishing the Electoral College and packing the Court
48:09 Changing the rules because you can't win under them
49:20 Why the Senate exists as a check on extremism
51:33 Both parties crashed this car
51:56 Why Schumer's anti-corruption bills are useless political theater
53:52 Congress was supposed to be the anti-corruption bureau
54:08 The Nats fire sale
55:26 Great franchises try to win now AND later
55:48 Manfred, the Dodgers & the coming salary-cap fight
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Dr. Brian King — the former director of the FDA's Center for Tobacco Products, who was placed on administrative leave in April 2025 as part of the mass HHS layoffs joins the Chuck Toddcast to explain what happens to public health when the agency charged with protecting it gets deliberately dismantled. King walks through the extraordinary progress America made reducing cigarette smoking over decades, and how quickly that's being unwound: the tobacco industry donated millions to Trump's PAC, executives pressured the White House directly, and the payoff has been regulatory capture and mounting pressure on the FDA to bring flavored products back to market. He's clear-eyed rather than absolutist on the science — combustible products are far and away the most harmful, nicotine itself is highly addictive but isn't what's killing people, though it's genuinely not risk-free for the adolescent brain — and he walks Chuck through the comparison to caffeine, the data on whether vaping serves as a gateway back into smoking, and what's actually known about nicotine pouches, where youth usage isn't high but stubbornly isn't declining either. The industry, meanwhile, is spending roughly a million dollars an hour advertising its products while fighting every government action to reduce smoking.
The conversation turns to what actually works and what's being abandoned. King argues the two most effective interventions available are reducing nicotine levels in cigarettes and banning menthol, credits Congress for getting the Tobacco Control Act right, and stresses that Congress — not the FDA acting alone — has to be the one to regulate tobacco, which is precisely why sidelining the agency is so damaging. He and Chuck get into the questions nobody in Washington wants to answer: why are cigarettes legal at all, how are sugary alcoholic beverages not treated in the same category, and where did the money from the 1998 master settlement actually go. King is pointed that the MAHA movement, for all its rhetoric about chronic disease, has done nothing prominent on tobacco, and that the FDA is now actively undermining both the science and the law it was built to enforce. His closing warning is the bleakest note of the episode: America is in a public health apocalypse that will take decades to repair, it will be enormously hard to recruit a next generation into the field, the entire world will be harmed by the collapse of American public health infrastructure — and the impacts are only just beginning to show up.
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Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Brian King (FDA center on tobacco) joins the Chuck ToddCast
03:45 We made incredible progress reducing cigarette smoking
04:15 Tobacco companies donated and received regulatory capture
05:00 Flavored vapes appeal more to kids & are problematic
06:30 Trump was pressured by executives from tobacco industry
07:15 There were multimillion dollar donations to Trump’s PAC
08:45 What’s the actual health data on nicotine outside of smoking?
09:15 Combustible products are the most harmful
09:45 Nicotine is highly addictive but isn’t causing the harm and deaths
10:30 Nicotine can harm the adolescent brain, it’s not risk free
11:15 Comparing nicotine vs. caffeine
13:00 Vaping typically isn’t a gateway back into smoking
14:15 There’s been pressure on FDA to bring back flavored products
16:45 $1M dollars an hour is being spent advertising tobacco products
17:30 Industry has been fighting all government action to reduce smoking
19:00 The FDA has been sidelined in the fight against smoking
19:30 Why are cigarettes even legal at all?
21:00 Tobacco farmers have transitioned to other crops in other countries
23:00 Reducing nicotine levels is highly effective
23:30 Outlawing menthol is also highly effective
25:15 Congress got it right with the Tobacco Control Act
27:00 How are sugary alcoholic beverages not in the same category?
28:00 What is age gating technology and how does it work?
30:00 Do we have good data on usage for people under 18?
32:30 Nicotine pouch usage isn’t high amongst kids, but isn’t going down
33:00 What is the data about health impacts from pouches?
34:30 Nicotine has a strong stimulant effect, helps with attention
35:15 Settlement in ‘98 required tobacco companies to pay costs in perpetuity
35:45 States have diverted those funds to other purposes
36:45 Did the tobacco industry actually take a hit from the settlement?
37:30 If still at FDA, what changes would you implement?
38:00 FDA has been undermining the science and the law
39:00 Effectiveness of banning indoor smoking
40:15 Should preventing underage addictions be the north star?
42:30 Congress has to regulate tobacco, FDA can’t do it on its own
43:15 MAHA hasn’t done anything prominent on tobacco
45:30 Is there litigation that could be pursued here?
46:45 We’re in a public health apocalypse, will take decades to repair
47:30 It will be hard to recruit people into public health
49:15 The entire world will be harmed by collapse of American public health
51:00 The impacts are just beginning to show up, will get worse
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