The Chuck ToddCast

Dmitri Mehlhorn — Democratic strategist, Atoll Society co-founder, and author of the new novel Archipelago of Light — joins the Chuck ToddCast to walk through the war games he runs simulating a contested 2028 election. Three teams: Institutionalists, Nationalists, and Capitalists. The Nationalists win a lot of them, and the mechanics are grimly instructive — they pump up progressives to generate backlash, offer carrots and sticks to capital, and find that every norm broken makes the next break easier. Mehlhorn argues the midterms are the rehearsal: get voters accustomed to challenging results now, delegitimize the process before 2028, and exploit a speaker's latitude not to seat delegations if things are close. His core warning is that our biggest failure has been a failure of imagination — and that taking power back has to be the singular issue in 2028.

Timeline:
00:00 Dmitri Mehlhorn joins The Chuck ToddCast
01:00The simulation, the three factions, and how it works
04:00 Why the Nationalists keep winning
08:45 The predictable playbook of authoritarians
12:15 What happens if 2028 is disputed
20:30 Building the game with AI and historical autocrats
23:15 The midterms as practice for 2028
29:15 The next 75 days and seating the winners
32:00 Texas, Hungary, and what actually deters authoritarians
42:15 The urban/rural divide and echoes of pre-WWI
46:45 Is the constitutional period already over?
54:30 Alarmism vs. vigilance — and what gives him hope
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the Wall Street Journal's brutal profile of Scott Bessent — built on 30-plus interviews describing outbursts, a thrown briefing book he denies, and seven Senate-confirmed officials out the door when previous administrations lost zero to two. The 3-3-3 plan never materialized, the debt cleared $40 trillion, and Trump keeps giving him more. Chuck's read: the whole Cabinet has become mini-Trumps. He then gets into whoever's drip-releasing the Paxton tapes, Pritzker's $1 million check to Gina Hinojosa, and Mike Rogers breaking with Trump on Canada far too late. Finally, Chuck runs the historical numbers on whether Democrats can actually win six-plus Senate seats — with Iowa and Kansas as the real test of the wave theory and whether we’re not seeing a political realignment occurring in real time that could result in Democrats winning 270+ house seats.

Then, Dmitri Mehlhorn — Democratic strategist, Atoll Society co-founder, and author of the new novel Archipelago of Light — joins the Chuck ToddCast to walk through the war games he runs simulating a contested 2028 election. Three teams: Institutionalists, Nationalists, and Capitalists. The Nationalists win a lot of them, and the mechanics are grimly instructive — they pump up progressives to generate backlash, offer carrots and sticks to capital, and find that every norm broken makes the next break easier. Mehlhorn argues the midterms are the rehearsal: get voters accustomed to challenging results now, delegitimize the process before 2028, and exploit a speaker's latitude not to seat delegations if things are close. His core warning is that our biggest failure has been a failure of imagination — and that taking power back has to be the singular issue in 2028.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.

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Timeline:
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
08:15 The WSJ profile of Scott Bessent and the Treasury exodus
13:00 The 3-3-3 plan that never happened — and a Cabinet of mini-Trumps
17:45 The Paxton tapes and a Texas GOP turning purple
25:30 Pritzker's million-dollar check and the DGA finally spending
28:00 Mike Rogers breaks with Trump — too late
31:30 Voting to check Trump, and a base that blames the candidates
34:15 Getting bullish on the Senate, and what D+16 would mean
42:00 Three possibilities for what we're actually seeing
46:30 The history of winning six or more Senate seats
54:00 Texas, Nebraska, South Carolina — and Iowa and Kansas as the real test
1:02:00 What a Texas-Iowa-Kansas sweep would mean
1:13:15 Dmitri Mehlhorn joins The Chuck ToddCast
1:14:15 The simulation, the three factions, and how it works
1:17:15 Why the Nationalists keep winning
1:22:00 The predictable playbook of authoritarians
1:25:30 What happens if 2028 is disputed
1:33:45 Building the game with AI and historical autocrats
1:36:30 The midterms as practice for 2028
1:42:30 The next 75 days and seating the winners
1:45:15 Texas, Hungary, and what actually deters authoritarians
1:55:30 The urban/rural divide and echoes of pre-WWI
2:00:00 Is the constitutional period already over?
2:07:45 Alarmism vs. vigilance — and what gives him hope
2:18:00 Ask Chuck
2:18:15 Top 3 no guts, no glory races this election cycle
2:20:15 Loved the interview with Marcia Chatelain
2:21:00 Would allowing blind votes in congress be a good idea?
2:22:30 Is there ever a line of Trump’s that Stephen Miller could cross?
2:24:45 What’s your read on McMaster appointing Darline Graham?
2:30:15 College football preview
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the Wall Street Journal's brutal profile of Scott Bessent — built on 30-plus interviews describing outbursts, a thrown briefing book he denies, and seven Senate-confirmed officials out the door when previous administrations lost zero to two. The 3-3-3 plan never materialized, the debt cleared $40 trillion, and Trump keeps giving him more. Chuck's read: the whole Cabinet has become mini-Trumps. He then gets into whoever's drip-releasing the Paxton tapes, Pritzker's $1 million check to Gina Hinojosa, and Mike Rogers breaking with Trump on Canada far too late. Finally, Chuck runs the historical numbers on whether Democrats can actually win six-plus Senate seats — with Iowa and Kansas as the real test of the wave theory and whether we’re not seeing a political realignment occurring in real time that could result in Democrats winning 270+ house seats.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD
http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Timeline:
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
08:15 The WSJ profile of Scott Bessent and the Treasury exodus
13:00 The 3-3-3 plan that never happened — and a Cabinet of mini-Trumps
17:45 The Paxton tapes and a Texas GOP turning purple
25:30 Pritzker's million-dollar check and the DGA finally spending
28:00 Mike Rogers breaks with Trump — too late
31:30 Voting to check Trump, and a base that blames the candidates
34:15 Getting bullish on the Senate, and what D+16 would mean
42:00 Three possibilities for what we're actually seeing
46:30 The history of winning six or more Senate seats
54:00 Texas, Nebraska, South Carolina — and Iowa and Kansas as the real test
1:02:00 What a Texas-Iowa-Kansas sweep would mean
1:11:00 Ask Chuck
1:11:15 Top 3 no guts, no glory races this election cycle
1:13:15 Loved the interview with Marcia Chatelain
1:14:00 Would allowing blind votes in congress be a good idea?
1:15:30 Is there ever a line of Trump’s that Stephen Miller could cross?
1:18:45 What’s your read on McMaster appointing Darline Graham?
1:23:15 College football preview
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Under four weeks out, Chuck Todd argues this has been the strangest campaign season he can remember — not because Democrats are overperforming, but because of how Republicans are behaving. Red-state Democrats have successfully separated themselves from the national brand and are no longer disqualified simply for being Democrats. Meanwhile almost no Republicans have sought distance from an unpopular president, and Chuck argues GOP candidates in red states have simply forgotten how to persuade anyone. Trump has never been good at defending a record — only at blaming someone else — and in Texas there's no Democrat to blame. Now Trump's running against lived experience at the pump. Chuck points to Thom Tillis calling his Hegseth confirmation vote the biggest regret of his career, estimates 30 Republican senators would dump Trump on a secret ballot, and compares the party to passengers in a car with a drunk driver that nobody will take the keys from. Every race has gotten worse for Republicans except Maine — and Trump may be the Democrats' single best asset over the final four weeks.
Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top TEN list of senate races most likely to flip, having to add more races as the map has expanded for Democrats. He also answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment.

Timeline:
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
04:30 A strange campaign season with four weeks to go
06:15 How red-state Democrats separated from the national brand
08:30 The Republicans who won't appear with Trump or Vance
11:30 Red-state Republicans have forgotten how to persuade
14:30 Running against lived experience at the pump
19:15 Fear of Trump's ire, and the seats he couldn't flip
21:15 Tillis, Hegseth, and the 30 senators who'd dump Trump on a secret ballot
25:30 Trump's behavior and the permission slip for exhausted voters
30:45 Every race has gotten worse except Maine
35:15 Why Trump may be the Democrats' best asset
37:45 ToddCast Top TEN senate seats most likely to flip
38:30 #1 North Carolina
39:15 #2 Alaska
41:00 #3 Ohio
42:45 #4 Texas
44:30 #5 Maine
46:30 #6 Kansas
47:15 #7 Iowa
49:00 #8 Michigan
52:00 #9 Nebraska
54:15 #10 South Carolina
59:00 Ask Chuck
59:30 How could a future administration remove political loyalists?
1:04:00 What could be lost amongst turmoil at the Kennedy Center?
1:08:30 Can dinner table discussion become important for election momentum?
1:12:30 Do Republicans think NFL Ken Paxton ads are effective?
1:16:45 Skeptical of Hinojosa winning, is this a mirage?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Under four weeks out, Chuck Todd argues this has been the strangest campaign season he can remember — not because Democrats are overperforming, but because of how Republicans are behaving. Red-state Democrats have successfully separated themselves from the national brand and are no longer disqualified simply for being Democrats. Meanwhile almost no Republicans have sought distance from an unpopular president, and Chuck argues GOP candidates in red states have simply forgotten how to persuade anyone. Trump has never been good at defending a record — only at blaming someone else — and in Texas there's no Democrat to blame. Now Trump's running against lived experience at the pump. Chuck points to Thom Tillis calling his Hegseth confirmation vote the biggest regret of his career, estimates 30 Republican senators would dump Trump on a secret ballot, and compares the party to passengers in a car with a drunk driver that nobody will take the keys from. Every race has gotten worse for Republicans except Maine — and Trump may be the Democrats' single best asset over the final four weeks.
Then, Pulitzer Prize-winning historian Marcia Chatelain joins the Chuck ToddCast to discuss How Bright the Path Grows, out October 13th, which tells the story of the Black women who built the 1963 March on Washington and were then written out of it. There's abundant footage of the men who spoke that day; there's no class photo of the women who organized it. Chatelain's central figure is Anna Hedgeman, the march coordinator who noticed no women were scheduled to speak — the original plan had the wives of civil rights leaders simply take a bow. She argues sexism functioned not just as oppression but as deliberate political strategy, and makes the point most Americans miss: King's final speeches challenged capitalism itself, and conservatives who now celebrate "I Have a Dream" took decades to get there. Plus Rosa Parks' financial ruin, why reparations never break through, and whether AI will sanitize history further.
Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top TEN list of senate races most likely to flip, having to add more races as the map has expanded for Democrats. He also answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment.
Timeline:
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
04:30 A strange campaign season with four weeks to go
06:15 How red-state Democrats separated from the national brand
08:30 The Republicans who won't appear with Trump or Vance
11:30 Red-state Republicans have forgotten how to persuade
14:30 Running against lived experience at the pump
19:15 Fear of Trump's ire, and the seats he couldn't flip
21:15 Tillis, Hegseth, and the 30 senators who'd dump Trump on a secret ballot
25:30 Trump's behavior and the permission slip for exhausted voters
30:45 Every race has gotten worse except Maine
35:15 Why Trump may be the Democrats' best asset
40:00 Marcia Chatelain joins The Chuck ToddCast
41:00 Writing women back into the March on Washington
44:30 Sources, threads, and what the march was really about
49:30 How "I Have a Dream" got sanitized — and who gets remembered
52:30 Anna Hedgeman and the women who weren't allowed to speak
55:30 Who thought the march failed, and the case for incrementalism
1:02:30 Diane Nash, Rosa Parks, and the economic retribution against activists
1:09:30 Why reparations hasn't broken through
1:14:00 AI, erasure, and the risk to original sources
1:25:30 Elites, education, and the threats to the Smithsonian
1:32:45 ToddCast Top TEN senate seats most likely to flip
1:33:30 #1 North Carolina
1:34:15 #2 Alaska
1:36:00 #3 Ohio
1:37:45 #4 Texas
1:39:30 #5 Maine
1:41:30 #6 Kansas
1:42:15 #7 Iowa
1:44:00 #8 Michigan
1:47:00 #9 Nebraska
1:49:15 #10 South Carolina
1:54:00 Ask Chuck
1:54:30 How could a future administration remove political loyalists?
1:59:00 What could be lost amongst turmoil at the Kennedy Center?
2:03:30 Can dinner table discussion become important for election momentum?
2:07:30 Do Republicans think NFL Ken Paxton ads are effective?
2:11:45 Skeptical of Hinojosa winning, is this a mirage?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.