The Approach Angle
Nate Schwartz (@_nateschwartz) and Kyle Bland (@blandalytics) are joined by Carson Picard to talk about BABIP and why it's more than just luck.
They start by discussing what BABIP actually is: getting into the original idea and what it specifically measures. Then, they talk about why using BABIP as "just a luck stat" leaves a lot of information on the table. They also talk about why BABIP has been steadily declining since the mid-2000s. The discussion transitions to talking about Carson's set of articles, covering both hitter and pitcher BABIP. Starting with pitcher BABIP, they cover both the internal and external factors that drive a pitcher's BABIP. The hitter conversation centers on which stats correlate best with BABIP and how Under% drives the storytelling. Finally, they conclude by talking about hitters with different 2026 profiles.
Articles discussed: Understanding BABIP Pt. 1, Pt. 2, Pt. 3, Carson Picard; Pitching and Defense: How Much Control Do Hurlers Have, Voros McCracken; Ahead in the Count: Predicting BABIP, Part 1, Matt Swartz; Introducing the Newest Hitter xBABIP, Mike Podhorzer; New Hitter xBABIP Based on BIS Batted Ball Data, Alex Chamberlain; A New BABIP for a Statcast Era, Andrew Perpetua; BABIP Panic, Russell Carleton
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