Shield of the Republic

Eric and Eliot welcome Norman Roule, a non-resident senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a thirty-four-year career veteran of the U.S. intelligence community, where he served in the Directorate of Operations as a division chief and chief of station, and for nearly a decade as the national intelligence manager for Iran in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI). They discuss Trump's effort to replicate his Venezuela playbook and the search for an Iranian Delcy Rodríguez, the intricacies of the Iranian succession, and the potential for the regular army (ARTESH) to step in and seize leadership of the country. The conversation also covers the IRGC's hold on the system in Iran, the sources of Iran's misreading of the regional situation and of Donald Trump, the failure of Iran's alliances to come to the rescue, and the nature of Iran as an intelligence target.
Eliot's Latest in The Atlantic (Gift Link):
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/03/trump-iran-war-confusion/686259/?gift=KGDC3VdV8jaCufvP3bRsPq02AwLxoJbONMjAocns7uo&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

NOTE: This episode was recorded on Monday, March 2, 2026.
Eric and Eliot assess where the US and Israel stand in the current war with Iran and identify the downside risks while acknowledging the world is a better place with the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. They weigh the prospects for success against some of the darker possibilities, discuss the internal situation in Iran, and examine Israel’s role in the operation.
Eliot’s Latest in the Atlantic:
America’s Invaluable Ally:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/03/americas-invaluable-ally/686205/?gift=KGDC3VdV8jaCufvP3bRsPo_i9WWeAapCb1_ocSZQ-ag&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

Trump Rolls the Iron Dice:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/02/trump-rolls-iron-dice-iran/686199/?gift=KGDC3VdV8jaCufvP3bRsPiz9hFl3HmKfcY7OSD7I258&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

NOTE: This episode was recorded before the attack on Iran.
Eric and Eliot review the State of the Union and discuss Eliot’s Atlantic article on the degradation of American political rhetoric. They criticize the President’s failure to make a case for military action in Iran and discuss the potential for the operation to go sideways quickly. They also cover the outbreak of hostilities between Afghanistan and Pakistan and the Pentagon’s declaration of war on Anthropic. They then turn to returning guest Seth Jones, President of the Defense and Security Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and author of The American Edge: The Military Tech Nexus and the Sources of Great Power Dominance. They examine consolidation within the defense industrial base, the scale of Chinese military-industrial production, the convoluted U.S. procurement system, and lessons about munitions consumption from the war in Ukraine.
The American Edge: The Military Tech Nexus and the Sources of Great Power Dominance: https://a.co/d/0bkXEhfo
Eliot on the State of the Union: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/02/cooper-union-state-union/686149/?gift=KGDC3VdV8jaCufvP3bRsPlUvaCAbledQrfoRDY_9QJU&utm_

Frank Kendall on The Pentagon v Anthropic: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/27/opinion/anthropic-pentagon-ai-defense.html?unlocked_article_code=1.PVA.40eZ.6OQb5YZlIGOe&smid=url-share

Anthropic Statement: https://www.anthropic.com/news/statement-department-of-war
Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot debate the merits and deficiencies of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s attempt to present “Trumpism with a human face” at the Munich Security Conference before turning to the dilemmas Trump faces in Iran. They discuss the administration’s uncertain strategic objective, the failure to consult Congress and the public, and the potential for a much longer military engagement than Trump is accustomed to. In the second half of the show, they welcome Hoover Institution Senior Fellow Frank Dikötter to discuss his newly published book, Red Dawn Over China: How Communism Conquered a Quarter of Humanity. They explore the weakness of the communist movement before World War II; the extensive role Soviet support played in sustaining it and in equipping and training what would become the People’s Liberation Army; the deep Stalinist ideological impact on the party; and the extraordinary violence and barbarity the CCP inflicted on the Chinese populace in the territories it occupied.
Red Dawn Over China: How Communism Conquered a Quarter of Humanity:
https://a.co/d/0d3ozDuB
Eliot on Marco Rubio's Munich Speech (Gift Link):
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/02/marco-rubio-munich/686025/?gift=KGDC3VdV8jaCufvP3bRsPv8cuxRM97HlBS7AWRa8x2Q

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot begin with a buffet of administration jackassery before pivoting to a preview of the Munich Security Conference. They discuss Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Bridge Colby's remarks, as well as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's speech highlighting the importance of transatlantic ties. They also examine the New START treaty's recent lapse and the future of arms control, the prospect for additional U.S. strikes on Iran, and the apparent shutdown of Russian Starlink terminals. They conclude with a discussion of the ongoing international fallout from the Epstein affair and his many unexplained Russian connections.
Eric and Frank Miller's Latest on New START:
https://thedispatch.com/article/new-start-expiration-russia-united-states-nuclear-program/
Eric and Frank Miller on NATO:
https://www.nationalreview.com/2026/01/natos-not-dead/
Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.