Open Circuit

• The AI race is really an electro-industrial race

  After years of U.S. restrictions on advanced semiconductors, Beijing is fighting back by cutting off exports of the raw materials that make those chips possible: rare earths, graphite, gallium, germanium — the invisible ingredients inside motors, power electronics, defense systems, and data centers. The move caught Washington off guard. The Treasury Secretary compared it to “pointing a bazooka at the industrial base of the entire free world.” These minerals only make up hundreds of millions of dollars worth of imports, but their strategic value is enormous. They’re woven into every emerging industry the U.S. hopes to dominate. And that’s the point. Under China’s new export rules, foreign companies will need government approval to trade or process these materials, giving Beijing leverage over the supply chains that feed both clean energy and artificial intelligence. In this episode, we look at the impact of China’s restrictions. And we also ask: is the AI war really an energy war? If you zoom out, this isn’t just a chip war or a minerals dispute — it’s a systems war. America has been pouring billions into digital intelligence, while China has been focusing on the “electric stack” that brings enormous strategic economic value. The electric stack is the vertically-integrated network of mining, refining, manufacturing, and grid infrastructure that underpins both the emerging electricity-based economy. China has spent decades mastering it. In the second half of the episode, we unpack an essay from Packy McCormick and Sam D’Amico that argues America is playing the wrong game. Are we overestimating the value of artificial intelligence and underestimating the electric infrastructure that intelligence runs on? Resources discussed in this episode:  The Electric Slide by Packy McCormick & Sam D’Amico Mastering the Electro Tech stack by Noah Smith The Electrotech Revolution report from Ember The Electro-Industrial Stack from Andreessen Horowitz NYT: China’s Rare Earth Restrictions Aim to Beat the U.S. at Its Own Game Open Circuit is brought to you by Natural Power. Natural Power specializes in renewable energy consulting and engineering, supporting wind, solar, and battery storage projects from concept through financing. Discover how we're creating a world powered by renewable energy at naturalpower.com. With resilience now a leading driver of grid investments, Latitude Media and The Ad Hoc Group are hosting the Power Resilience Forum in Houston, Texas on January 21-23, 2026. Utilities, regulators, innovators, and investors will all be in the room — talking about how to keep the grid running in this new era of heatwaves, wildfires, and storms. Register today here!

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• How to spot an AI bubble

  The AI economy isn’t coming. It’s already here. In the first half of 2025, investment in AI infrastructure outpaced all U.S. consumer spending. Tech companies are now building the equivalent of an Apollo program every ten months, while data centers are drawing capital away from nearly every other sector. As money floods into chips, servers, and substations, the “B word” is suddenly on everyone’s lips: bubble. This week, Azeem Azhar, founder of Exponential View and one of the sharpest analysts of exponential technologies, joins Open Circuit to unpack the difference between a boom and a bubble. Azeem discusses his recent analysis on bubble dynamics, which established a dashboard for monitoring the health of the AI economy. Azeem has spent the last decade chronicling how exponential technologies collide with the real world. And lately, that collision has been literal. Data centers are running into grid limits, power supply is the new bottleneck, and trillions in capital expenditures are reshaping capital flows across the economy. Scott Clavenna, Latitude Media CEO and lead author of the AI-Energy Nexus newsletter, also joins as guest co-host to draw from his experience covering the telecom bubble of the 90s. So where is this cycle headed? What’s on the other side of it? And what happens when exponential technologies hit the limits of steel, concrete, and electrons? In this episode, we’ll check the gauges of the AI economy, and ask what it means for the energy economy. Plus, we examine the state of AI, if we’ll ever see energy’s AlphaFold moment, and whether we’re seeing the limits of computing scale. Open Circuit is brought to you by Natural Power. Natural Power specializes in renewable energy consulting and engineering, supporting wind, solar, and battery storage projects from concept through financing. Discover how we're creating a world powered by renewable energy at naturalpower.com. With resilience now a leading driver of grid investments, Latitude Media and The Ad Hoc Group are hosting the Power Resilience Forum in Houston, Texas on January 21-23, 2026. Utilities, regulators, innovators, and investors will all be in the room — talking about how to keep the grid running in this new era of heatwaves, wildfires, and storms. Register today here!

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• Is this moment for distributed energy different?

  Distributed energy resources have never looked stronger. Fleets of batteries are now performing like gas plants, virtual power plants are dispatched daily, and hyperscalers are supporting new models to finance capacity around their data centers. But investor-owned utilities? The Edison Electric Institute says they’re planning more than a trillion dollars in new infrastructure over the next decade to support historic load growth — with no mention of DERs or flexibility as solutions. So which world are we living in? The one where DERs become essential infrastructure, or the one where they remain a rounding error for utilities? This week, we examine this critical moment for distributed resources. Tim Hade, a co-founder of Brightfield Infrastructure and former COO of Scale Microgrids, joins us to talk about the tug-of-war at the heart of the grid transition.  We unpack a recent historical overview of DERs from Andy Lubershane, who argues that technical innovation and the desperate rush to meet load growth is turning them from nice-to-have experiments into distributed capacity resources that grid operators can actually count on. We also dig into EEI’s new report on utility planning, and examine why utilities still resist DERs even as customers and data centers push them forward. What are the consequences of ignoring them at this precarious moment when power prices are rising quickly? Open Circuit is brought to you by Natural Power. Natural Power specializes in renewable energy consulting and engineering, supporting wind, solar, and battery storage projects from concept through financing. Discover how we're creating a world powered by renewable energy at naturalpower.com. With resilience now a leading driver of grid investments, Latitude Media and The Ad Hoc Group are hosting the Power Resilience Forum in Houston, Texas on January 21-23, 2026. Utilities, regulators, innovators, and investors will all be in the room — talking about how to keep the grid running in this new era of heatwaves, wildfires, and storms. Register today here!

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• The case for a climate reset

  For the last decade and a half, the loudest voices in the climate movement have treated decarbonization like a moral crusade: ban gas stoves, declare climate emergencies, punish fossil fuel companies. But those tactics don’t lower utility bills or build durable political coalitions. And now, amidst a radical shift in U.S. politics where the economy dominates, there’s a growing call for a pragmatic reset. This week, we dissect two critiques of climate politics. In a Bloomberg essay, Michael Liebreich argues it’s time to ditch the guilt and doom, stop chasing impossible targets, and focus on fast, affordable progress. Alex Trembath of the Breakthrough Institute says the “climate hawk” is an endangered species in U.S. politics.  We’ll walk through their arguments, and debate what a reset in climate politics and policy might look like. Plus, another reset in finance. Generate Capital and Greenbacker, two of the most important clean energy investors, are both under new leadership. Both companies are re-evaluating their approaches to the market. What do these shakeups say about the state of climate capital and the “missing middle” of projects that still struggle to get financing? With resilience now a leading driver of grid investments, Latitude Media and The Ad Hoc Group are hosting the Power Resilience Forum in Houston, Texas on January 21-23, 2026 . Utilities, regulators, innovators, and investors will all be in the room — talking about how to keep the grid running in this new era of heatwaves, wildfires, and storms. Want your clean energy brand to stand out in a crowded market? Work with Latitude Studios, our in-house agency that provides content creation and marketing services for brands at the frontier of the energy transition. Credits: Co-hosted by Stephen Lacey, Jigar Shah, and Katherine Hamilton. Produced and edited by Stephen Lacey. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand.

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• Electricity is the new price of eggs

  Eggs were the symbol of inflation in the last election. Now, as electricity bills spike, they are becoming a symbol for consumer frustration in 2026. Americans are feeling the squeeze. Bills are up nearly 30% since 2021, outpacing inflation and straining household budgets. Eighty million Americans are struggling to pay, four in five feel powerless, and politicians are scrambling for someone to blame. On Truth Social, Trump points at renewables. On TikTok and Bluesky, users rage about data centers. Utilities blame extreme weather. Governors blame corporate utilities. So who’s actually guilty? According to Charles Hua, the CEO of PowerLines, the real story is far more complicated: billions in spending for transmission and distribution systems without enough careful planning or oversight. In this episode, we explore how rising bills are creating a political storm, how affordability is reshaping state campaigns, and what it would take to cut rates by 20% through smarter regulation and an emphasis on unlocking current grid capacity. With resilience now a leading driver of grid investments, Latitude Media and The Ad Hoc Group are hosting the Power Resilience Forum in Houston, Texas on January 21-23, 2026 . Utilities, regulators, innovators, and investors will all be in the room — talking about how to keep the grid running in this new era of heatwaves, wildfires, and storms. Want your clean energy brand to stand out in a crowded market? Work with Latitude Studios, our in-house agency that provides content creation and marketing services for brands at the frontier of the energy transition. Credits: Co-hosted by Stephen Lacey, Jigar Shah, and Katherine Hamilton. Produced and edited by Stephen Lacey. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand.

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