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Gabriel Weinberg's Blog

Gabriel Weinberg
Gabriel Weinberg's Blog
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5 de 25
  • Total Factor Productivity needs a rebrand (and if you don't know what that is you probably should).
    If you don’t know about Total Factor Productivity (TFP), you probably should. It’s an economic concept that is arguably the most important driver of long-term economic prosperity. An International Monetary Fund (IMF) primer on TFP explains it like this (emphasis added):It’s a measure of an economy’s ability to generate income from inputs—to do more with less…If an economy increases its total income without using more inputs…it is said to enjoy higher TFP [Total Factor Productivity].TFP is an important macroeconomic statistic [because] improvements in living standards must come from growth in TFP over the long run. This is because living standards are measured as income per person—so an economy cannot raise them simply by adding more and more people to its workforce.Meanwhile, economists have amassed lots of evidence that investments in capital have diminishing returns. This leaves TFP advancement as the only possible source of sustained growth in income per person, as Robert Solow, the late Nobel laureate, first showed in a 1957 paper.So, it’s important. Critically important to long-term progress. To learn more about TFP, check out the full IMF primer referenced above and then this post I wrote about TFP titled “The key to increasing standard of living is increasing labor productivity,” which also has more links embedded in it. It explains how the only sustainable way to increase TFP is to “to invent new technology that enables workers to do more per hour.” And this is why I’m always going on and on about increasing research funding.Let’s assume for a second that most people want more prosperity and that long-term prosperity does indeed primarily flow through Total Factor Productivity. Then why aren’t we talking about TFP a lot more? Why isn’t Total Factor Productivity front and center in our political agendas?I think there are a host of reasons for that, including those I outlined in the paradox of progress. But another even simpler reason has to be that Total Factor Productivity is a terrible, inscrutable name, at least from the perspective of selling the concept to the mainstream public.Every word of it isn’t great. It starts with “total,” which isn’t as off-putting as the other words, but doesn’t add much especially as the first word, let alone the fact that economists quibble that it isn’t an actual total. “Factor” seems like a math word and doesn’t add much either. And then you have “productivity,” which is confusing to most people because it has an unrelated colloquial meaning, and from a political perspective it also codes as job-cutting which is inherently unappealing.Now, lots of economics jargon has similar problems, case in point “Gross Domestic Product” (GDP). Given GDP hasn’t been rebranded, I doubt TFP will either. That said, I think for anyone trying to communicate this concept to the public, we shouldn’t take the TFP name or acronym as a given, but try to use something more appealing and inherently understandable.I’m looking to switch to something else but not sure to exactly what. My thinking so far has led me to work in the words “prosperity” or “innovation” directly like:* Prosperity Driver * Prosperity Component* Innovation MultiplierDo you have any other suggestions? Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts or get the audio version. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit gabrielweinberg.com
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  • Is consumer AI heading for a duopoly?
    Fifteen years ago Google started using their search monopoly to create a browser monopoly by pushing people to use Chrome through in-product promotions in Google search. It worked. Now they’re repeating that same playbook for consumer AI with Gemini and it’s working again. In the last 30 days, Gemini has been downloaded about the same amount of times as ChatGPT, and nothing else is even close.While ChatGPT had a massive head start, Google is rapidly turning consumer AI into a duopoly. Despite endless headlines mentioning Anthropic, Perplexity, and others, none of the alternatives seem to be meaningfully gaining market share right now relative to ChatGPT, except Gemini. The reason is simple: the others don’t have the distribution channels to match Google’s.The next phase of consumer AI competition will favor Google even more. As I recently noted, consumer internet workflows increasingly span across search, browsing, and AI. Who has the most entrenched position in search and browsing to complement consumer AI? Google. For example, their monopoly browser (Chrome) can get AI features to most consumers the fastest.Google’s ability to leverage its market position to distribute its own AI products continues unabated, and U.S. v. Google made clear that distribution powers a scale advantage. That is, Google’s search assets are not easily replicable because of the vast user engagement data Google alone possesses. And an increasing number of sites don’t even allow web crawlers or access to their content except for Google.We shouldn’t settle for a shift from Google’s search monopoly to an AI duopoly. Thus far, regulators have only addressed Google’s advantages at the margins. There remains time to address these dynamics and unlock innovation.One possible (non-regulatory) response is deeper partnerships and consolidation between the other AI companies, search engines, and browsers in an effort to compete more with more scale in this new market. This has already started around the edges, for example we (at DuckDuckGo) have partnered with You.com to develop a better news search index and are looking to partner with others to advance the web index we’ve been working on, as well as to enhance our browser and AI features. But the market is ripe for larger deals.To see where those might come from, here’s the top mobile (consumer AI is used primarily on mobile) search engines in the U.S. according to Cloudflare, who sees the most traffic. Google is #1, followed by us (DuckDuckGo) at #2, then Yahoo and Bing. Everyone else is sub 1%.Similarly, here’s the top mobile browsers in the U.S. Safari and Chrome dominate, followed by Samsung Internet, DuckDuckGo and Firefox above 1%.And finally, here are the top 20 consumer web destinations in the U.S., according to SEMRush. The top ten are Google, Reddit, Facebook, Amazon, Yahoo, Wikipedia, Instagram, DuckDuckGo, and ChatGPT.Partnerships and consolidation between these companies could produce some more effective competition. So far, consumer AI has actually driven more traditional search and browser usage, not less. We see that in our numbers, and SparkToro reports similar for others. AI is driving people to do more information seeking in general, and as mentioned those workflows increasingly span across search, browsing, and AI. The best experiences seamlessly blend all three in the browser, and so it is natural companies with assets in some of the three areas would want to partner with companies with non-overlapping assets. Additionally, a company with a large consumer user base could help directly drive distribution of consumer AI, browsers, and search engines, especially if that company has unique content assets.A duopoly in consumer AI will not just be bad for innovation, but will further erode privacy. That’s why I believe DuckDuckGo will remain an important alternative regardless of what happens, but I’m still a little hopeful that innovative partnerships and consolidation could challenge the rapidly emerging consumer AI duopoly.Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts or get the audio version. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit gabrielweinberg.com
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  • The paradox of progress
    Progress doesn’t have a single agreed-upon definition, but for the sake of anchoring, let’s say progress is rising living standards. While this definition seems unambiguously good, deserving of top billing on policy agendas for both major parties, the paradox is that long-term progress agendas rarely get top billing. Why? Here are three underlying reasons I’ve noticed in thinking about advocating for a lot more basic research funding, which I think needs to be the cornerstone of any credible progress agenda:* Timescale mismatch. People want benefits now, not decades from now. U.S. politics runs on two-year cycles, while progress policies need decades to compound into large increases in living standards. For example, 2% vs. 3% growth, which would be a great outcome for a progress agenda, seems like a rounding error to most people even though it is meaningful when compounded. And the politicians championing these policies won’t be around to claim credit when they pay off decades later.Resolving this part of the paradox would involve articulating short-term benefits in some manner, for example that research funding is a jobs engine in the short term. It could also involve bundling longer-term investments like research funding in a particular field with shorter-term concrete results like rollout projects in that same field, which people can start seeing the phsyical results from within a couple of years.* Change aversion. Advocating for far-future progress is selling a sci-fi world, which a lot of people take (and creative media often depict) as dystopian, not utopian. True progress means society changes for the better, delivering better-paid jobs using more advanced technology, and products that bring new conveniences and experiences. But change also means at least some disruption of current ways of life and thinking, and that creates winners and losers in the short term, which in turn creates reasonable anxiety.Resolving this part of the paradox would involve painting a clearer picture of what exactly will change in the short term, paired with explicit transition support for people most directly affected. It could also involve less focus on the far-future altogether, focusing instead on shorter timeframes that could be more easily contextualized.* Lacking urgency. Not only is there not a clear picture, but progress agenda framing lacks urgency, emphasizing future opportunities rather than short-term crisis. Crisis framing comes with inherent urgency that opportunity framing lacks.Resolving this part of the paradox would involve reframing progress agendas as a response to crisis, such as the risk of China leapfrogging us in critical technology and the military and economic consequences that brings.All these resolutions share a common thread: making distant abstractions concrete. I’m increasingly convinced that advocating for progress, whether it be basic research funding or otherwise, requires bundling long-term promises with near-term demonstrations, including explicit workforce transition plans, and framing progress as helping to address competitive threats we’re already facing.Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts or get the audio version. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit gabrielweinberg.com
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  • The overlooked front in the browser wars
    The browser wars are back. Agents are one front; the overlooked front is reducing switching costs in workflows that bridge across search, browse, and AI.Overlapping search, browse, and AI in the browserTraditional web search, browsing, and AI chatting aren’t going away, even as many people will eventually start interacting more with agents that automate tasks. And all three of these core Internet activities increasingly overlap into complex workflows. Many queries you could start either with a web search or an AI chat, and many of those end with wanting to browse to a website. Sometimes you’re on a website and want to ask a question about it. Sometimes you are in a chat and want to run a related web search, and vice versa.The best product lets you complete whole tasks with the least friction. Agents are one approach. The other approach, which keeps users in the driver seat, is to seamlessly integrate search, browse, and AI into one interface. Both are important fronts in the new browser wars.The DuckDuckGo BrowserWe’ve been working on AI at DuckDuckGo for several years now, with an overall approach to provide private, useful, and optional AI features—including chat and search instant answers—to people who want the productivity benefits of AI without the privacy risks. Our chat service at duck.ai, which allows you to chat privately with popular chatbots and get real-time answers from the web, has the highest satisfaction ratings we’ve ever seen in a new service, and Search Assist, our take on Google’s AI Overviews, is currently our highest-rated search feature.While we’re the second largest search engine on mobile in the U.S., we’re also the 4th largest mobile browser (and #3 on iOS specifically). In fact, we think of ourselves as a browser company at this point. I believe the best search, AI chat, and web user experience is where they are all integrated deeply in the browser (vs. in separate apps or services), supporting workflows that allow you to seamlessly move between modes as needed.Seamless workflows: what we’re creating at DuckDuckGoI believe our browser is so popular because we focus not just on protection but on also continually refining the user experience, aiming for both dependability and delight. That’s why we have been actively working on creating such seamless workflows across search, browse, and AI for some time now. Here are a few examples.Easily accessible AI chat sidebarWe have a sidebar in our desktop browser that is easily accessible from any webpage to ask an AI chat question, optionally using page context. From there, you can ask follow-ups, pop it out into a new tab if you need more space, or hide it to return to give more room to the website without losing your place.Toggle between Duck.ai and search via address bar / homepageWe now have an optional address bar mode on mobile (coming to desktop next) that allows you to easily toggle between private web search and private AI chat when starting queries. Ideally this makes it just as easy to start a web search or an AI chat as in a standalone search or chat app, and further allows you to switch modes mid-query without re-typing.The toggle is also available on (or coming soon to) our homepage and new tab page.Handoff between search results and chatIf you start a web search, we’ve built in ways to more easily jump into chat mode if desired. You can click Duck.ai to go into AI mode, or the chat icon from within Search Assist to ask a specific follow-up question related to the answer, which will carry over the answer and sources as context.Integrating traditional search into Duck.aiFrom within Duck.ai chat conversations, we automatically search the web for you and provide links to related searches or websites when appropriate, allowing you to jump back into search or browse mode if desired.We’re working on refining these features based on user feedback as well as designing more. The best user experience will improve the workflows of the many people that are bouncing between these modes dozens of times a day. Your thoughts are welcomed!Keeping AI private and optionalAs mentioned, our overall approach to AI features is to keep them useful, private, and optional. The above illustrates usefulness, so now a few closing words on private and optional. Similar to our search engine, our AI chats are anonymized. In addition, chats are not used to train AI models. There’s a lot more about private AI chats on our help pages. We also make sure everything we do with AI is optional, since we know not all of our users want to use AI for a variety of reasons, and that is fine with us. All AI features can be turned off, in both our browser and our search engine. Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts or get the audio version. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit gabrielweinberg.com
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  • What banning AI surveillance should look like, at a minimum
    I previously called on Congress to ban AI surveillance because of its heightened potential to easily manipulate people, both for commercial and ideological ends. Essentially, we need an AI privacy law.Yet Congress has stalled on general privacy legislation for decades, even in moments of broad public privacy focus, like after the Snowden revelations and the Cambridge Analytica scandal. So, instead of calling for another general privacy bill that would encompass AI, I believe we should focus on an AI-specific privacy bill.Many of the privacy frameworks floated over the years for general privacy regulation could essentially be repurposed to apply more narrowly to AI. For example, one approach is to enumerate broad consumer AI rights, such as rights of access, correction, deletion, portability, notice, transparency, opt-out, human review, etc., with clear processes to exercise those rights. Another approach is to create legally binding duties of care and/or loyalty on organizations that hold AI data, requiring them to protect consumers' interests regarding this data, such as to minimize it, avoid foreseeable harm, prohibit secondary use absent consent or necessity, etc. There are more approaches out there and they are not mutually exclusive. While I have personal thoughts on some of them, my overriding goal is to get something, anything useful passed, and so I remain framework-agnostic. However, I believe within whatever framework Congress adopts, certain fundamentals are non-negotiable:* Ban a set of clearly harmful practices. Start with what (I hope are) universal agreement items, like identity theft, deceptive impersonation, unauthorized deepfakes, etc. The key is explicitly defining this as a category so that we can debate politically harder cases like personalized pricing and predictive policing (both of which I think should also be banned). * Practices near the ban threshold should face higher scrutiny. For example, if we can’t manage to outright ban using AI to assist in law enforcement decisions, at the very least this type of use should always be subject to human review, reasonable auditing procedures, etc. Using AI for consequential decisions, like for loan approvals, or for processing sensitive data, like health information, should at least be in this category. And many practices within this category, especially with regards to consumer AI, should be explicitly opt-in.* Make everything else transparent and optional. Outside the bright-line bans and practices subject to higher scrutiny, any other AI profiling must be transparent and at least come with the ability to opt-out, with only highly limited exceptions where opt‑outs would defeat the purpose, like for legal compliance. Consumers also need meaningful transparency, including prominent disclosures that indicate clearly when you are interacting with an AI system. That means not just generic data collection notices or folding into existing privacy policies, but plain-language explanations shown (or spoken) prominently at the time of processing, which detail what AI systems are inferring and deciding.* States must maintain authority to strengthen, not undermine, federal minimums. I wrote a whole post about why, with the gist being AI is changing rapidly, the federal government doesn’t react to these changes quickly enough, and states have shown they will act, both in AI and privacy.Finally, these protections won't stifle progress. Some oppose any AI regulation because they believe it will hinder AI adoption or innovation. In terms of innovation, privacy makes a good analogy: Despite fears that a “patchwork” of state privacy laws would wreak havoc on innovation by going too far, they haven’t. Innovation hasn’t stalled, and neither have Big Tech privacy violations. In terms of adoption, the backlash against AI is real and rising, and smart regulation can help build the trust necessary for sustained AI adoption, not hinder it. We can get the productivity benefits of AI without the privacy harms.Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts or get the audio version. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit gabrielweinberg.com
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